ACUS11 KWNS 071429
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071429
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-071630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0929 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...far southeast North Dakota...west-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 071429Z - 071630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible as convection moves
eastward over the next 1-3 hours. A watch is not currently expected,
but trends will be monitored into the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms is moving eastward on the
cool side of a stationary boundary. Weak warm advection is likely
supporting this activity. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates and
modest elevated buoyancy, isolated large hail is possible with the
strongest storm cores. 850 mb winds are expected to weaken slightly
over the next couple of hours. At least in the short term, it is not
likely for enough of a cold pool to develop to maintain organization
or for the boundary to lift northward and storms to become surface
based. Destabilization is occurring farther east and the boundary
orientation could allow this cluster to interact with it by mid
afternoon. Observational trends will continue to be monitored.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-_hnfAYUrNH8RpuZjVHefG5lKR_qbRn1Bzi_QCCyMO_tysSNzLn67HiUpbGFGGNNFJ1xoaKaZVAtz6AWzHmp5y1R0zU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 44939919 45130001 45760049 46210002 46379906 46269728
46109606 45739598 45239613 44959659 44879712 44779809
44939919

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)