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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1529

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 6 23:02:38 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 062302
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062302=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-070000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1529
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0602 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

    Areas affected...southeast ND...northwest into northern MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466...

    Valid 062302Z - 070000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and severe gusts will continue
    into the early evening. The wind risk will probably increase if
    additional storm mergers occur and a severe cluster evolves over
    northern MN.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite/radar mosaic composite shows a few
    strong to severe storms ahead of a cold front from southeast ND into
    northern MN. Surface temperatures remain warm to the southeast of
    the ongoing storm activity with lower to mid 80s deg F, with
    dewpoints ranging from the 70s in southeast ND to the mid 60s in
    northern MN. The glancing of a Canadian mid-level shortwave trough
    and associated large-scale ascent will provide continued impetus for
    storm development and sustenance through the early to mid evening.=20=20
    Large hail will likely focus with the stronger cells located to the
    west and southwest of the northern MN clustering of storms, and also
    as storms mature over southeast ND into western MN this evening.=20
    MRMS MESH has mostly shown remotely-sensed hail diameter values 1 to
    1.5 inches. However, larger hail in the 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter
    range will remain possible with a supercell. The severe-wind threat
    will probably begin to increase as further merging of outflow and
    storm clustering evolves during the evening. Given adequately steep
    0-3 km lapse rates with relatively high PW, some of the more intense water-loaded cores may yield a risk for 60-75 mph gusts.

    ..Smith.. 07/06/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_aH5s_oZHFn7PO8J0gbLLiocQJuJn1MKlNTX-7waRsmqoq7ujQagz5gOgszjNMg6liMalK8UM= SBwkgEh1oP9QgEbmH8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...

    LAT...LON 46509779 47879639 48599463 48599382 48299326 47749361
    46049644 45959702 46029766 46509779=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)