ACUS11 KWNS 062239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062238=20
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-070045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Areas affected...North-central Louisiana into far east Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467...

Valid 062238Z - 070045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms has been producing 50-65 mph
winds over the past hour. Based on the downstream environment,
similar wind speeds will be possible for the next couple of hours as
the band of storms spreads east into north-central Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KSHV shows swaths of strong
low-level velocities within a cold-pool driven band of convection.
KSHV and K4F2 (Carthage, TX) sampled 63 and 58 mph winds
(respectively) with the passage of the band. Although deep-layer
shear remains very limited in the vicinity of the band, fairly
unstable conditions downstream (MLCAPE estimated to be around 2500
J/kg) will continue to promote strong updraft development along the
leading edge of the outflow boundary. Somewhat steep low-level lapse
rates of around 8 to 8.5 C/km will continue to facilitate downdraft accelerations and contribute to the development of additional swaths
of strong to severe winds. Based on the downstream environment, peak
wind gusts will most likely remain in the 50-70 mph range.=20

A weak/shallow cold pool associated with diminishing convection
across north-central LA may delineate the eastern edge of where
these peak gusts may occur, but warmer temperatures to the southeast
and better alignment of the cold pool with the deep-layer wind shear
vector may promote severe gusts as far south as the southern fringe
of WW 467.

..Moore.. 07/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7WH73rCUChjR5L7Ix8lCau8277X2MKUZiC75Kc7ihLqSjSHCh5WGU0X7OrUnGL3TPcgl9B2zA= X-MO489L11WbpJAq1E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...

LAT...LON 32019470 32079428 32329386 32579370 32909369 33079345
33019257 32729240 32439239 32049246 31789254 31579271
31429302 31389346 31399390 31449433 31619459 32019470=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)