ACUS11 KWNS 062211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062210=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-070045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Areas affected...northeast SD...west-central into central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 062210Z - 070045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development will become
increasingly possible with time and perhaps this begins as early as
6pm-8pm CDT. Isolated to scattered large hail and severe gusts are
possible with the stronger storms through late evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows partly cloudy skies
with a thin cirrus shield located to the southeast of an approaching
front that is currently analyzed over southeast ND. Surface
observations over eastern SD and west-central MN show temperatures
in the upper 80s with lower 70s deg F dewpoints. The 20z model run
of the RAP seems adequately representative of the surface conditions
and it shows 4000 J/kg MLCAPE with PW in excess of 1.8 inches.=20
Fairly weak southerly low-level flow veers to westerly and 20-kt in
the 500-300 mb layer and this is supporting around 25-kt effective
shear. Short-term model guidance continues to suggest storms will
eventually develop over the southern part of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #466 near the ND-SD-MN border region early this evening.=20
Additional storms are possible over northeast SD into west-central
MN this evening. Contingent on storm development occurring, it
seems plausible at least an isolated to perhaps scattered
severe-storm risk will develop beginning this evening. It remains
unclear regarding storm evolution and the need for a severe
thunderstorm watch due in part to storm coverage and propensity for
severe hail/wind, but mesoscale conditions will continue to be
monitored.

..Smith/Gleason.. 07/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-sli7jEohu5LgtfGNpaK-vQLeOLndh5B6cuBpGu4KnTptbEkQR077mR5n4Q8v-tqG4K6vgU12= DeYFA102Z36tHPflc4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON 45149869 45539856 45889824 46179517 46059461 45809443
45469442 45059477 44649616 44399803 44679854 45149869=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)