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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1523

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 6 18:27:38 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 061827
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 061827=20
    VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-062100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1523
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0127 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

    Areas affected...Much of northern/central Virginia into
    north-central North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 061827Z - 062100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increase in
    thunderstorm development this afternoon. The stronger storms will be
    capable of producing damaging wind gusts. It is unclear if a watch
    will be needed, especially in the near term.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar data shows a gradual increase in
    thunderstorm development over the higher terrain of western VA ,
    with more isolated development farther east. Over the next few
    hours, continued diurnal heating and orographic lift should promote
    scattered thunderstorms. As these storms advance eastward into parts
    of central VA and north-central NC, steepening low-level lapse rates
    and increasing buoyancy will promote damaging wind gusts --
    especially with any clusters of storms that evolve. Current thinking
    is that the greater risk of damaging winds will develop later this
    afternoon into the evening, as storms congeal into small clusters.
    Therefore, the need for a watch is uncertain in the near term,
    though convective trends are being monitored.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/06/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7pVOlJ-HUcADSbpdeznDDfH_67EukcJABK09raZHZi2Z2qd8HqoUuk5vIRnL6McrTEzDcgV9c= Fu3DTUZAp6pRuf3Vl4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36578011 37117958 37627924 38217893 38617844 38837801
    38847750 38567704 38247687 37587689 36607735 35727817
    35427881 35437971 35738020 36138031 36578011=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)