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  • DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Resent 1

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 13 12:15:30 2026
    ACUS01 KWNS 131215
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 131214

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0714 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

    Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MT
    SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN UT...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible
    across portions of the northern High Plains and Great Basin this
    afternoon and evening. Other areas of isolated severe wind/hail
    risk occur over the upper Ohio Valley and the Texas Panhandle.

    ...WV/PA/NY...
    A large upper trough is deepening as it tracks southeastward across
    the Great Lakes and Midwest into the Upper Ohio Valley. The
    associated surface cold front is sweeping across OH, and will extend
    from central NY into western PA and northern WV later today. Clouds
    are currently prevalent across this region, but some
    clearing/heating is expected as low-level moisture is transported
    into the area. The result will be narrow corridor of sufficient
    CAPE for thunderstorm development along the front from NY into WV.
    Given the strength of the upper trough and winds aloft, there is
    concern for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and
    perhaps hail...mainly in the 18-00z period.

    ...Great Basin...
    A second strong and progressive upper trough has moved ashore over
    OR/WA and will spread mid-level height falls and large scale ascent
    across much of the Great Basin and Rockies today and tonight.
    Low-level moisture is very sparse ahead of the system, but pockets
    of strong heating from northern UT into eastern ID/western WY and
    central MT will result in inverted-v profiles and sufficient CAPE
    for isolated charge separation and robust updrafts. CAM solutions
    suggest a risk of high-based fast-moving showers and occasional
    thunderstorms affecting the region, with the risk of severe wind
    gusts.

    ...TX Panhandle...
    A surface dryline will become established over the TX panhandle
    later today, where temperatures will climb well into the 90s.
    Forecast soundings show only modest CAPE and limited risk of
    convective initiation over this area. However, any storm that can
    persist in this environment would conditionally pose a threat of
    damaging wind gusts and large hail. Will maintain the ongoing MRGL
    risk for this conditional risk.

    ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/13/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 2 02:00:12 2026
    ACUS01 KWNS 020200
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 020158

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0858 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

    Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
    THE OZARKS/MID-SOUTH...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS....

    ...SUMMARY...
    Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are still
    expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the central
    Plains. Scattered strong to severe wind gusts are also possible
    within the Ozarks and portions of the Mid-South.

    ...01Z Update...
    Notable upper-level low is promote severe convection within the
    Central High Plains this evening. This activity with continue for a
    few more hours. The most organized convection has become more linear
    in southwestern Kansas. This will be the focal point for severe wind
    gusts this evening/overnight. Some of this risk may eventually
    spread in to northern Oklahoma. Scattered strong to severe storms
    are also ongoing in Arkansas/northern Mississippi. These storms will
    be capable of large hail and damaging winds over the next few hours.
    The primary question remains how long the threat will continue. Some
    models still hint at linear organization occurring later tonight,
    but confidence is low as to where this will occur. Strongly forced
    convection may produce severe gusts in parts of eastern
    Montana/western North Dakota. A remaining pocket of enhanced shear
    and buoyancy is evident near the SC/GA border. A subtle shortwave
    may allow a cluster of storms to move south and east. Isolated
    damaging winds would be possible with this activity.

    ..Wendt.. 06/02/2026

    $$

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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)
  • From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Thu Jul 16 02:35:40 2026
    ACUS01 KWNS 160235
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 160233

    Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0933 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

    Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

    ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AZ...SOUTHEAST MT...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OR
    INTO SOUTHERN WA...

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated damaging winds are possible for portions of the northern
    Rockies/High Plains, Pacific Northwest, and Arizona into the early
    overnight hours. A brief tornado or two may also occur across parts
    of south-central Texas.

    ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

    Severe probabilities have been removed from the Northeast states
    with the 01z update. The 00z OKX RAOB indicated ample inhibition,
    which should suppress convection the remainder of the evening.
    Despite strong deep-layer northwesterly flow and modest midlevel
    lapse rates supporting elevated instability, it is unlikely
    additional convection will develop overnight as a midlevel shortwave
    impulse increasingly moves offshore over the Atlantic.

    Some guidance suggests that convection ongoing over southern Lower
    MI may continue to develop/percolate southeast overnight across Lake
    Erie and into northeast OH/northwest PA within strong northwesterly
    mid/upper flow. The 00z PIT RAOB shows steep lapse rates and large
    instability. However, inhibition should increase with loss of
    daytime heating. An isolated strong storm producing small hail
    cannot be ruled out, but overall severe potential appears limited
    given time of day and nebulous forcing for ascent.

    ...Central Texas...

    Rounds of thunderstorms will continue overnight as lobes of
    convectively enhanced vorticity maxima rotate around the mid/upper
    low centered over west-central TX. Low-level warm advection will
    persist through the night, maintaining rich boundary layer moisture, maintaining at least modest low-level instability. Vertically
    veering low-level wind profiles will maintain 0-1 km SRH around
    100-200 m2/s2, and a tornado or two will remain possible.

    ...AZ...

    Strong thunderstorms could produce locally damaging/severe gusty
    outflow winds through late evening. Reference MCD 1628 for
    information on short term severe potential.

    ...MT/WY...

    Severe probabilities have mostly be removed from WY and confined to
    MT, where modest instability overlaps with strong effective shear
    magnitudes. Isolated strong wind gusts remain possible through late
    evening as convection shifts east toward a better low-level lapse
    rate environment.

    ...WA/OR...

    Scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms will persist tonight
    across central OR into south-central WA. A belt of 30-40 kt
    effective shear magnitudes may provide sufficient support within the
    weakly unstable airmass for a couple of strong storms. Steep lapse
    rates will favor strong outflow winds with this convection.

    ..Leitman.. 07/16/2026

    $$

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    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)