ACUS02 KWNS 181717
SWODY2
SPC AC 181715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Thursday,
with an upper ridge remaining in place over the western CONUS, and a
deep upper trough over the East. A general dearth of moisture and
instability will continue to limit thunderstorm potential over most
of the CONUS.

Near and offshore of the southeast FL Peninsula, modest moisture and instability may support weak convection as a midlevel shortwave
moves through the large-scale trough. This convection may pose a low
(around 10 percent) thunderstorm threat, mainly during the latter
half of the forecast period.

..Dean.. 03/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190528
SWODY2
SPC AC 190526

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A low chance of a few thunderstorms may develop on Friday near the
Upper Ohio Valley and vicinity, and also near the southeast Florida
coast.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain over the Southwest on Friday, with strong
northwest flow aloft along the Canadian border. A low-amplitude
upper wave will move from northern MN across the upper Great Lakes
late in the day and overnight, with a weak surface low moving from
the Great Lakes into the Northeast. A cold front will extend from
southwest Ontario into MO by 18Z, with southwesterly surface winds
helping to bring a plume of low to mid 50s F dewpoints as far north
as OH and western PA.

Marginal low-level moistening and daytime heating will lead to weak instability, which may support isolated thunderstorms developing
within the warm advection zone into the Upper OH Valley and
vicinity. Severe storms are not forecast due to the weak
instability, however, veering winds with height and good deep-layer
shear will support cellular activity, perhaps with very
small/non-severe hail.

Elsewhere, the tail-end of the western Atlantic trough will maintain
cool temperatures aloft over FL. This will support afternoon
destabilization, with isolated activity near the eastern shores
where localized surface convergence may develop.

..Jewell.. 03/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191732
SWODY2
SPC AC 191730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ON THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the Upper Ohio Valley, mainly late Friday afternoon into Friday
evening.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will remain in place over the Southwest on Friday,
while a large-scale upper trough will cover much of the eastern
CONUS. Within the large-scale trough, an embedded shortwave will
move from the Upper Great Lakes towards the northern Mid Atlantic
and New England. A surface low will move from parts of lower MI
toward New England through the period, as trailing cold front moves
across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic.

...Parts of the mid/upper Ohio Valley...
Modest low-level moisture will return through the day along/ahead of
the approaching cold front across parts of the Ohio Valley/Allegheny
Plateau region. Regarding prefrontal dewpoints, guidance generally
ranges from the low 50s F (HRRR/WRF-ARW) to mid/upper 50s F (NAM and
other HREF members). In the presence of strong deep-layer
flow/shear, the magnitude of moisture return will determine the
level and areal extent of any organized severe potential.

If moisture return becomes sufficient to support MLCAPE of around
500 J/kg or greater, then a few stronger updrafts and perhaps
marginal supercell structures could develop by late afternoon or
early evening, as convective temperatures are approached or breached
and glancing large-scale ascent impinges upon the region. Despite
the generally weak instability, any robust storms could pose a
threat of marginally severe hail and perhaps locally gusty/damaging
winds, given the presence of favorable shear and rather cold
temperatures aloft. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, though
this will be more conditional on richer low-level moisture return
and maintenance of surface-based convection.

With generally low-quality moisture noted in Thursday morning
observations, sufficient moisture return for an organized severe
threat on Friday remains quite uncertain. However, given the
presence of very favorable wind profiles and at least some signal
for near-surface-based storm development during the late afternoon
and evening, a conditional Marginal Risk has been added for Friday
across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley. A conditionally favorable
environment will extend outside of the Marginal Risk into parts of
the mid/lower Ohio Valley, but the signal for storm development
currently decreases substantially with southwestward extent.

..Dean.. 03/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200556
SWODY2
SPC AC 200555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from
the Tennessee Valley into the southern Appalachians. Thunderstorms
will also be possible in Wisconsin and Lower Michigan Saturday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level ridge will move into the Rockies on Saturday, as
northwesterly mid-level flow remains from the Great Plains to the
Eastern Seaboard. Within the flow, a shortwave mid-level trough will
move through the Tennessee Valley. Ahead of this feature, scattered thunderstorms will be possible during the day from southern Kentucky
and Tennessee southeastward across northern Georgia and South
Carolina. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible Saturday
night from Wisconsin into western Michigan, as a mid-level jet
streak moves eastward across the Great Lakes. No severe
thunderstorms are forecast Saturday and Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 03/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201640
SWODY2
SPC AC 201638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail to near 1
inch diameter Saturday afternoon and evening from eastern Tennessee
into portions of North and South Carolina.

...Tennessee into the Carolinas...

A modest midlevel shortwave trough will migrate southeast from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast within a broader
northwesterly upper flow regime on Saturday. Midlevel flow is not
forecast to be overly strong with this shortwave, with around 25-35
kt noted in forecast guidance. However, vertically veering wind
profiles within the lowest 2-3 km, and stronger northwesterly flow
above 500 mb will support effective shear magnitudes of around 25
kt. Forecast soundings also show elongated/straight hodographs.
Boundary layer moisture is forecast to remain modest, with surface
dewpoints generally in the 50s, with some areas across the TN Valley
seeing low 60s dewpoints. However, relatively steep midlevel lapse
rates near 7 C/km and cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb)
will support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE.

Given modestly favorable vertical shear and instability, combined
with weak large-scale ascent overspreading the region by peak
heating, a low risk for severe storms producing hail to around 1
inch diameter appears possible, and a level 1 of 5 (Marginal) risk
has been included with the Day 2 update.

..Leitman.. 03/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210602
SWODY2
SPC AC 210601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio
Valley.

...Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
At mid-levels on Sunday, an amplifying trough will move quickly east-southeastward across the north-central U.S, as an associated
jet streak translates eastward into the southern Great Lakes. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Ohio Valley.
South of the front, moderate instability will develop across a moist
airmass by early afternoon, with surface dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60s F. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level
convergence will result in convective initiation along parts of the
front during the mid to late afternoon. Storm coverage is forecast
to gradually increase as several clusters or line segments with a
severe threat move southeastward across the Ohio Valley during the
late afternoon and early evening.

During the afternoon from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh, forecast
soundings gradually increase MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range.
Forecasts just ahead of the front suggest that winds will be veered
to the southwest near the surface, but that strong speed shear will
exist in the lower to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to range
from 40 to 50 knots, which should be favorable for severe
thunderstorm development. 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.0 to 7.5
C/km range should support supercells with large hail. The supercell
threat is expected to be greatest early in the event, when cells are
more likely to be discrete. A threat for severe wind gusts is also
expected. The wind-damage threat should be concentrated along short
line segments that form in the late afternoon and early evening. A
marginal tornado threat will also be possible.

Further west-southwest into the lower Ohio Valley and mid
Mississippi Valley, the models are forecasting a stout capping
inversion to the south of the front over much of the warm sector.
Near the front in the early evening, the cap is forecast to weaken.
This combined with increasing low-level convergence near the front
should be enough for isolated convective initiation. A marginal
threat for hail and severe wind gusts would be possible with the
stronger cells that can initiate and persist.

..Broyles.. 03/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211725
SWODY2
SPC AC 211723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging
wind gusts, and possibly some tornado threat are expected on Sunday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley into the
northern Mid Atlantic region.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to gradually amplify
on Sunday, as it moves from the northern Plains towards the Great
Lakes region. This amplification will occur within a broader
west-northwesterly flow regime, with relatively strong deep-layer
flow expected to eventually overspread the Ohio Valley and Mid
Atlantic regions. A cold front initially draped from the central
Plains into the Lower Great Lakes will move generally southeastward
through the period, as one or more frontal waves traverse the front
from the mid MS Valley into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic.

...Ohio Valley into parts of the Mid Atlantic...
A plume of relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will emanate out of
an anomalously hot and well-mixed regime across the Southwest and central/southern Plains and overspread parts of the Ohio Valley on
Sunday. With favorable deep-layer flow/shear expected across the
Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic, the primary uncertainty regarding the
magnitude of buoyancy and potential severe threat is low-level
moisture return. The partially modified nature of returning Gulf
moisture and a tendency for strong antecedent heating/mixing
upstream of the Ohio Valley may continue to result in less
aggressive moistening compared to most guidance. However, with
relatively cool midlevel temperatures (-14C to -16C at 500 mb), even
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s F will result in moderate buoyancy
(MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) where sufficient heating occurs.

The greatest confidence in diurnal storm development currently
resides within the eastern portion of the primary buoyancy plume
across PA and eastern OH, where weaker capping and a modest
warm-advection regime could result in isolated to widely scattered
supercell development along/ahead of the front. Weaker ascent with
southwest extent reduces confidence in development across the lower
Ohio Valley, though isolated supercell development cannot be ruled
out in this region as well. An increase in storm coverage is
expected into Sunday night as the cold front begins to surge
southeastward, though much of the nocturnal activity may tend to be
anafrontal and somewhat elevated.

Large hail (potentially to the size of golf balls or larger) could
accompany any longer-lived supercells during the afternoon and
evening. The environment will also be favorable for damaging-wind
potential, especially where stronger diurnal heating occurs, though
potential for organized clustering is uncertain due to the eventual undercutting frontal passage. Also, while flow will remain rather
veered, low-level shear/SRH may be sufficient to support some
supercell tornado threat, conditional upon sufficient low-level
moistening. A corridor of greater tornado probabilities may
eventually be needed, if trends support more substantial moisture
return than currently expected.

..Dean.. 03/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221731
SWODY2
SPC AC 221729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN GA/SC INTO SOUTHERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Monday from eastern
Georgia and South Carolina into southern North Carolina.

...Parts of the Carolinas/Georgia...
A cold front will move southward across parts of the Carolinas and
Southeast on Monday, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
across New England. Weak to locally moderate buoyancy along/ahead of
the front will support isolated diurnal thunderstorm potential,
though weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit storm intensity.
Seasonably strong prefrontal heating and steepening of low-level
lapse rates could support localized strong/damaging gusts during the
afternoon and early evening, if deep convection can be sustained
within the weakly forced environment.

..Dean.. 03/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230541
SWODY2
SPC AC 230539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the
Florida Peninsula. No severe threat is forecast.

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave mid-level trough will move east-southeastward into the
eastern U.S. on Tuesday. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will move from the central Appalachians into the western
Atlantic. A dry airmass will be located over most of the continental
U.S, except along parts of the Gulf Coast. Within this moist
airmass, isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Florida
Peninsula Tuesday afternoon. Instability across Florida is expected
to be weak, and no severe threat is expected.

..Broyles.. 03/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231729
SWODY2
SPC AC 231728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday across the
central and north Florida.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front, now approaching the Piedmont, will move
southward into FL and stall by Tuesday afternoon. Daytime
heating/mixing along the stalled front, as well as local sea breeze circulations, will support the potential for widely scattered
thunderstorms across central/north FL during the afternoon/evening.
This area will be along the southern fringe of the stronger westerly
flow aloft, and the combination of buoyancy and vertical shear does
not appear favorable for severe storms.

Otherwise, a midlevel shortwave trough will move over Vancouver/WA
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weak buoyancy rooted aloft will be
possible in the warm advection zone preceding the midlevel trough,
and steepening low-level lapse rates will allow shallow buoyancy in
the post-frontal environment late in the forecast period. Isolated
lightning flashes could occur and this area will be re-examined in
later outlook updates.

..Thompson.. 03/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240552
SWODY2
SPC AC 240550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
A stout upper-level ridge will gradually shift east towards the
southern Rockies through Wednesday. Broad-scale subsidence ahead of
the ridge will help maintain dry conditions for most areas of the
country. However, a few regions will see at least isolated
thunderstorm chances. Deep convection appears most probable across
portions of central Florida Wednesday afternoon where weak low-level convergence within a stalled frontal zone (aided by localized lift
along sea-breeze boundaries) will support a few thunderstorms. This
activity should remain sub-severe due to weak winds through much of
the profile. A weak upper disturbance propagating into the
Midwest/OH Valley overnight will likely support isolated
thunderstorms after 00z as lift overspreads the northern fringe of
returning low-level moisture, though buoyancy profiles will likely
remain too meager to support robust/deep convection. Similarly, very
cold temperatures aloft associated with a low-amplitude upper wave
may support shallow convection and occasional lightning flashes
across parts of the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon and
evening hours. Strong diurnal heating/mixing along the slopes of the
CO Rockies may support very isolated convection late Wednesday
afternoon. Confidence in thunder potential is low due to very
weak/nebulous forcing for ascent, but forecast soundings and
convective signals from recent CAM guidance suggests at least a 10%
chance for thunderstorms.

..Moore.. 03/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241654
SWODY2
SPC AC 241652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through Wednesday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper high will remain over the southwestern states on Wednesday,
but will flatten across the Great Basin/Rockies as a strong upper
wave moves from the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Plains
by 12Z Thursday. East of there, an upper trough will continue to
exist the Northeast/Maritimes region.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over much of the East and
extending into the Gulf of America, while low pressure develops over
the northern Plains ahead of the approaching upper trough. By the
end of the period into Thursday morning, a cold front should extend
roughly from the Upper Great Lakes into the central Plains.

While gusty southerly winds will develop over the Plains, moisture
quality will be limited by the dry upstream trajectories out of the
high. Still, this may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms over
small parts of the northern Plains and OH Valley overnight.

Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms may develop over the FL Peninsula
during the day due to strong heating and relatively cool
temperatures aloft due to the trough to the northeast. Cold
temperatures aloft over the Pacific Northwest may also support
low-topped convection near/north of the intense midlevel jet.

..Jewell.. 03/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250558
SWODY2
SPC AC 250556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River
Valley. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe winds will be
possible.

...Synopsis...
Latest GOES water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave encroaching
upon the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies and southern British
Columbia as it rounds the apex of a stout upper ridge situated over
the West. This feature is expected to migrate eastward over the next
48 hours, reaching the Great Lakes region by late Thursday.
Early-morning surface observations reveal the early stages of lee
cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains with a long fetch of
southerly flow from the TX Gulf Coast into the Plains. While
moisture return is currently fairly weak, a plume of upper 50s to
low 60s dewpoints will spread northeastward into the Midwest/OH
Valley by Thursday afternoon ahead of a southeastward moving cold
front. Strong forcing along the front within a destabilizing air
mass, combined with increasing mid-level flow attendant to the upper
wave, will promote scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across
portions of the Midwest and OH Valley Thursday afternoon and
evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon across the
southern Lake Michigan region as the cold front begins to impinge on
a plume of returning moisture. Stout capping at the base of an EML
will likely limit initial storm coverage, and elongated hodographs
(featuring 40-50 knot effective bulk shear values) will promote
organization of discrete/semi-discrete supercells for at least an
hour or two. Given the very favorable convective environment
(characterized by SCP values upwards of 8-12), large to very large
(2-3 inches in diameter) hail appears possible. However, it remains
unclear how long storm modes will remain discrete with latest HRRR,
RRFS, and MPAS solutions all suggesting relatively quick upscale
growth along the front by early evening. These solutions appear
reasonable given strong frontal ascent and deep-layer flow
predominantly along the boundary. This may modulate the
duration/coverage of the significant hail threat, and would favor a
scattered severe wind threat downstream into IN and OH.

Regardless, 200-400 m2/s2 effective SRH immediately ahead of the
front will support some threat for tornadoes, including the
potential for a significant tornado if supercells can be maintained
just ahead of the front. Additionally, the consensus among HREF/REFS
solutions is a northward shift in the primary severe risk corridor
towards northern IL/IN, southern lower MI, and northwest OH. 15%
hail and wind probabilities were adjusted accordingly. More isolated strong/severe storms appear possible with southwestward extent along
the front into central MO, but confidence in storm coverage west of
the MS River is limited due to displacement from the richer moisture
and stronger upper-level ascent.

..Moore.. 03/25/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251725
SWODY2
SPC AC 251723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA INTO WESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday afternoon
and evening across parts of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be
possible.

...Mid-MS/OH Valleys...

Several shortwave impulses are expected to migrate through initially zonal/low-amplitude westerly flow across the Midwest/Great Lakes
region through late afternoon. Stronger height falls will occur
across the region after 00z as a midlevel shortwave trough deepens
across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Despite the low-amplitude
nature of this regime, mid and upper-level flow will be somewhat
strong, with most guidance showing 40-60 kt at 850-700 mb
overspreading the Mid-MS/OH Valley/Great Lakes region by afternoon.
At the surface, a warm front will be oriented across central IA,
extending eastward along the IL/WI and IN/OH/MI border at midday. A
weak surface low/frontal wave will propagate along this zone, with
the front sagging southward as a cold front by late afternoon into
the evening. By the end of the period, the front will be oriented
from the northern Mid-Atlantic southwestward through the Lower OH
valley and into the southern Plains.

Forecast soundings indicate capping could preclude warm sector
convection for much of the daytime hours. In the absence of stronger large-scale ascent and surface cyclogenesis, the region will
experience a broad warm advection regime, while low-level forcing
along the front increases as it begins to march southward.
Deep-layer flow will largely remain boundary-parallel, though
backing low-level flow is expected near the front across the warm
sector, enhancing low-level SRH. Boundary-layer moisture will be
somewhat modest, generally in the low 60s F, through some pockets of
mid-60s F dewpoints are possible, especially immediately ahead of
the front. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will already be in
place over the region, and this will aid in moderate
destabilization, with MLCAPE values reaching 1000-2000 J/kg by peak
heating.

Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with enlarged/favorably curved low-level hodographs along the front and
45+ kt effective shear magnitudes. Given strong deep-layer flow,
hodographs also are elongated/straight. Supercells producing large
to very large hail (greater than 2+ inch) are possible, even with
potentially elevated convection to the cool side of the boundary. If
any supercell can stay to the warm side of the surface front and
maintain surface-based status, a tornado risk is also possible
(possibly strong tornadoes). With time, convection is expected to
develop into a line or bowing segments given orientation of
deep-shear vectors to the surface boundary. Given strength of
850-700 mb flow and steep lapse rates, damaging winds gusts are
possible.

The severe risk should diminish with south and east extent during
the nighttime hours as storms approach the Ohio River.

..Leitman.. 03/25/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260547
SWODY2
SPC AC 260545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley into the
Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm
potential appears limited.

...Synopsis...
A cold front noted in 05 UTC surface observations across the
northern Plains is forecast to push southeast over the next 48
hours. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the front across
the OH Valley around 12 UTC Friday, but should gradually wane in
coverage from west to east through late morning as frontal ascent
shifts south into an air mass with poor mid-level lapse rates.
Heating of a seasonally moist air mass across the Carolinas and
southern Virginia (mid 50s dewpoints) will likely yield a pocket of
MLCAPE values between 100-300 J/kg ahead of the front. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are expected as the front pushes
through during the mid to late afternoon hours. While 30-40 knot
mid-level flow will overspread the region through peak heating, the
general consensus among guidance, including the typically aggressive
RRFS, is that buoyancy profiles will remain too marginal to support
intense updrafts and a more appreciable severe threat.

..Moore.. 03/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261628
SWODY2
SPC AC 261626

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected from the Ohio Valley into the
Carolinas Friday morning into the afternoon, but severe thunderstorm
potential appears limited.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will pivot across the eastern U.S. on Friday.
Stronger deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will remain focused
across portions of the Midwest/Great Lakes into the Northeast.
Meanwhile, at the surface a cold front extending from the
Mid-Atlantic to the southern Plains will develop south/southeast
through the period, moving offshore by early Saturday. Ahead of the
front, modest boundary-layer moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints) will be in place across the VA Piedmont into the
Carolinas. Steep midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km are expected
across the region, and will aid in weak destabilization near the
front. NAM and RAP forecast soundings maintain capping across VA
before the front moves through around midday. Further south across
portions of NC, stronger heating may allow for sufficient mixing and
erosion of weak midlevel capping. A couple of surface-based
thunderstorms could develop near the front and produce gusty winds.
However, overall severe potential is expected to be limited by weak
instability and mostly anafrontal convective processes.

Further west, isolated thunderstorms will be ongoing Friday morning
near/just behind the cold front into the Ohio Valley. This activity
should diminish with time and southward extent through the day.

..Leitman.. 03/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270551
SWODY2
SPC AC 270549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across
portions of the Florida peninsula, but the potential for severe
thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis...
A strong cold front currently pushing southward across the Plains
and OH Valley is forecast to reach central to southern Florida by
Saturday afternoon. Continued displacement from the primary synoptic
low and upper wave to the northeast will lead to a gradual abatement
of frontal advancement and the onset of frontolysis through the day.
Despite diminishing low-level forcing for ascent, event modest lift
within an unstable and weakly capped environment will likely support
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by peak heating into
early evening. Very weak winds (less than 20 knots) through much of
the column will limit storm organization and the potential for
severe convection. Elsewhere across the country, dry and stable
conditions in the wake of the frontal passage will limit
thunderstorm potential.

..Moore.. 03/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271653
SWODY2
SPC AC 271652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday afternoon across
portions of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, but the potential for
severe thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow aloft will deamplify as an upper trough shifts
offshore over the western Atlantic. At the surface, a cold front
will progress southward across the northern/central FL Peninsula.
Strong heating and a seasonally moist airmass ahead of the front
will support MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible across the central/southern FL Peninsula
and Keys by peak heating and into the early evening. However, very
weak deep-layer flow and poor lapse rates will preclude severe
thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a dry/stable
airmass and strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest
will preclude thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 03/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280547
SWODY2
SPC AC 280545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern Florida
Peninsula and portions of southern Arizona/southwest New Mexico
Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure is gradually building across the central CONUS
in the wake of a recent cold frontal passage. Aloft, broad-scale
ridging will gradually shift east from the Southwest towards the
lower MS Valley over the next 24 hours. The combination of dry
conditions behind the front and broad subsidence/height rises will
preclude thunderstorms for most regions. Exceptions to this will
likely be the southern Florida peninsula and portions of Arizona and
New Mexico. 00z soundings from south FL sampled sufficient low-level
moisture for surface-based buoyancy, and further moistening is
anticipated over the next 48 hours. While poor lapse rates and weak
deep-layer shear will modulate thunderstorm intensity, a few
thunderstorms appear possible given negligible capping and localized
ascent within a residual frontal zone. Across southern AZ/NM, an
influx of mid-level Pacific moisture coupled with strong
heating/deep mixing will likely support around 250 J/kg SBCAPE by
late afternoon. Weak ascent ahead of a mid-level disturbance and/or
localized orographic ascent may support a few thunderstorms. Deep
inverted-V profiles may support strong downburst winds, but
thunderstorm coverage will likely be too sparse to warrant
highlights.

..Moore.. 03/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281753
SWODY2
SPC AC 281751

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern
Arizona and the southern Florida Peninsula Sunday afternoon and
evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A zonal flow regime will exist across the CONUS on Sunday, with the
main upper jet situated across the northern States. Areas of cooler
air aloft will exist from Baja CA and extending into parts of the
Southwest, with warmer air aloft across the Gulf Coast.

At the surface, a prominent area of high pressure will be centered
over the Mid Atlantic, with ridge extending across the southeastern
states and into the northern Gulf. A surface trough will develop
across the High Plains, with early cycle moisture return across the
Plains.

Thunderstorm chances will be limited to parts of southern AZ during
the late afternoon as heating, steep lapse rates aloft and
increasing low-level moisture support marginal instability in a weak
shear environment. Locally gusty winds are likely with storms over
southern AZ.

Elsewhere, a deep easterly low-level flow regime will exist across
FL, and although midlevel lapse rates will be poor, heating along
with deep moisture through 700 mb may support isolated
thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 03/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290558
SWODY2
SPC AC 290556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper wave is forecast to progress along the
U.S./Canadian border Monday through early Tuesday morning. Ahead of
this wave, a surface cyclone will steadily intensify across the
Plains as it migrates towards the upper MS Valley. Northward
moisture return over the next 48 hours ahead of the surface low will
likely result in mid to upper 50 dewpoints reaching the upper MS
Valley and Great Lakes region by early evening. Concurrently,
westerly flow aloft will advect 7-8 C/km lapse rates eastward
towards the Great Lakes region. This combination of low-level
moistening and steepening lapse rates aloft will yield a buoyant air
mass within the warm conveyor region of the developing cyclone.

Capping and mostly dry low-level conditions will preclude
thunderstorm development during the day. After 00 UTC, a
strengthening of the low-level jet will augment low-level moistening
and isentropic ascent between 925-850 mb across the upper MS Valley
and Great Lakes region. Thunderstorm development is expected between
the 03-06 UTC period across northeast IA into southern WI/northern
IL along the warm frontal zone. Westerly effective bulk shear values
on the order of 30-40 knots will likely support storm organization,
including the potential for elevated supercells initially, with an
attendant large hail risk. With time, storm motions along the zonal
frontal zone will promote upscale growth into one or more clusters
as convection spreads east into MI. Some damaging wind threat may
materialize with this activity depending on its proximity to the
surface warm front.

A more isolated hail threat appears likely across northern lower MI
after 06 UTC as more focused isentropic ascent spreads north.
Although convection will be elevated, elongated hodographs through
the CAPE-bearing layer will promote organized cells with mainly a
large hail threat.

..Moore.. 03/29/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291719
SWODY2
SPC AC 291717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the upper Mississippi River Valley to Lower Michigan late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A low-amplitude but intense shortwave trough will move across the
northern Rockies during the day Monday, and will move into the
northern Plains through 12Z Tuesday, with height falls arriving late
into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes.

At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern plains
during they day, and will move into IA/southwest WI area by Tuesday
morning. East of the low, a quasi-stationary front will extend
across WI and Lower MI, with mid to upper 50s F dewpoints to the
south. Meanwhile, a cold front will move to a southeast MN to
western KS line by 12Z Tuesday.

Though capping will inhibit development at least through 00Z,
increasing theta-e advection along with the 40-50 kt 850 mb jet will
lead to lift along/north of the stationary front, with isolated hail
possible as far north as northern WI/Lower MI. Other isolated
development may occur south of this boundary, depending on the
degree of elevated CIN, from IA into IL. Hail would be the most
likely threat.

Late in the period and into Tuesday morning, lift will be strongest
near the surface low, and scattered storms producing both hail and
locally damaging gusts will be possible given the dry sub-cloud
layer and steep lapse rates aloft.

..Jewell.. 03/29/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300601
SWODY2
SPC AC 300559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day
and into the evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and hail are most likely. Isolated
strong storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the
southern Plains with localized hail/wind.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in early-morning water-vapor
imagery across the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, a diffuse lee
cyclone is noted in surface observations across the High Plains.
Over the next 24-48 hours, this cyclone will intensify as it
translates east across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region in
tandem with the upper wave. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest
ahead of this low and along a trailing cold front with increasingly
sparse convective coverage with southwestward extent into the
Plains. Elsewhere across the country, isolated thunderstorms are
expected across portions of Southeast states within a plume of
returning rich low-level moisture as well as across the Southwest
and northern Great Basin as ascent associated with a weak upper
disturbance overspreads the region.

...Great Lakes...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
early Tuesday morning within the warm frontal zone of the
approaching cyclone. Based on latest high-res guidance, this
activity should largely exit the upper Great Lakes region by early
afternoon and allow for some degree of air mass recovery ahead of
the approaching cold front. Westerly 40-50 knot shear vectors will
likely support initially semi-discrete storm modes across portions
of the upper MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity by early afternoon
with an attendant large hail risk.

With time, upscale growth along the front into one or more linear
segments is expected - especially in close proximity to the surface
low where forcing for ascent will be greatest. Latest HREF/REFS
ensemble guidance continues to depict the strongest convective
signal across lower MI and downstream into the Lake Erie region
where low-level moistening should support MLCAPE values upwards of
1500 J/kg ahead of the low. Additionally, low-level warm advection
preceding the surface low will support 0-1 km SRH values on the
order of 250 m2/s2 across the lower Great Lakes region. While it
remains unclear whether or not discrete storms can develop within
the diffuse warm frontal zone ahead of any convective
lines/clusters, a tornado threat may materialize as convection moves
into the favorably sheared environment during the evening hours.

...Southern Plains...
Modest deepening of a lee trough/low across the southern High Plains
will support some tightening of a dryline across western OK into
adjacent portions of northwest TX as a cold front stalls across
northwest OK. Ample heating/mixing and weak low-level convergence
may sufficiently erode inhibition and provide adequate ascent along
the dryline and/or cold front to support at least a few isolated
thunderstorms. A combination of marginal deep-layer wind shear
(25-30 knots of effective bulk shear) and dry low-level conditions
may support an isolated hail and severe wind risk with the more
robust convection.

..Moore.. 03/30/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310603
SWODY2
SPC AC 310601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central
Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated
strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the upper Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
By 12 UTC Wednesday, a stalled frontal boundary will likely be
draped from the southern/central Plains eastward along the OH Valley
and into the Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, a progressive upper wave will
traverse the Southwest during the day, eventually ejecting into the
southern Plains around or after 00 UTC. The approach of the upper
wave will support lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO into western
KS, which will foster northward advection of low 60s dewpoints
(already noted in early-morning surface observations along the TX
coast) into OK and eastern KS by late afternoon. The intensification
of the low will also promote a northward advancement of the boundary
as a warm front into northern MO and possibly southern IA by late
evening, as well as the sharpening of a dryline across western OK
into northwest and western TX through the day. Strong to severe
thunderstorm potential will mainly be focused along/ahead of the
dryline and in proximity to the warm front as the upper wave begins
to eject during the early evening hours.

...Southern Kansas into Oklahoma and northwest Texas...
Initiation along the dryline appears likely during the 21-00 UTC
period across western OK into northwest TX as a combination of
diurnal heating and increasing synoptic ascent act to erode
inhibition. Elongated hodographs featuring effective bulk shear
values between 35-45 knots will support initially discrete
supercells capable of large/very large hail and tornadoes (though
uncertainty persists regarding low-level SRH through early evening).
Upscale growth is anticipated at some point during the evening
hours, though there is some uncertainty on when this transition will
occur and the primary threat becomes severe wind. Regardless, an
increase in the nocturnal jet will enlarge low-level hodographs and
maintain the tornado potential into the late evening hours.

...Eastern Kansas and western Missouri...
Latest guidance shows fairly strong consistency in the development
of semi-discrete convection along the lifting warm front across
eastern KS into western MO during the late afternoon/evening hours -
likely owing to weaker capping and focused low/mid-level warm
advection that is noted in most forecast soundings. Veering winds
within the warm frontal zone will support effective SRH values on
the order of 200-300 m2/s2, and surface-based LCLs near or below 1
km will likely support a tornado threat in addition to large/very
large hail. While the potential for robust supercells is noted, the
weak capping and focused ascent may promote thunderstorm clustering
and upscale growth (as hinted by 00z HRRR/RRFS solutions) that could
limit the longevity of these threats; however, the strong signal in
guidance for deep convection within a favorable environment warrants
an expansion of probabilities.

...Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...
Diurnal heating along and focused low-level ascent along the stalled
boundary will likely support isolated to widely scattered convection
by mid-afternoon. While mid-level flow will be somewhat modest
compared to locations further west, sufficient hodograph elongation
should promote at least a few more organized storms capable of
posing a large hail threat. Deep-layer flow along the boundary may
promote clustering during peak heating with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 311732
SWODY2
SPC AC 311730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central
Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated
strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Southern Plains and Central Plains...
A midlevel trough and accompanying 50-60-kt speed max will advance
eastward from the Great Basin into the southern/central Plains by
Wednesday evening. As related height falls overspread the High
Plains, a lee cyclone will deepen over southeastern CO, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains.
Ample diurnal heating and parcel residence time along the dryline
will promote scattered thunderstorm development in the 20-00Z time
frame -- aided by the strengthening large-scale ascent. Steep
midlevel lapse rates associated with an EML and lower 60s dewpoints
will yield 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the warm sector. This, combined
with 40-50 kt of effective shear, will favor a mix of semi-discrete
supercells and organized clusters/line segments initially.

The risk of large to very large hail (some 2+ inch diameter) should
be greatest with these initial semi-discrete storms over the
southern/central High Plains. With time, the strengthening DCVA and
expanding cold pools will promote upscale growth into a
north/south-oriented band of storms with embedded supercell
structures -- given elongated hodographs and a substantial
line-orthogonal component to the deep-layer shear. Large hail will
remain possible, though scattered severe wind gusts and a couple
tornadoes will become the main concerns. Additionally, a 40-50+ kt
low-level jet will strengthen ahead of the upscale-growing
convection into the evening, resulting in expanding clockwise-curved
hodographs and additional concerns for a few tornadoes. Higher
tornado probabilities may eventually be needed once confidence in
where the risk will be maximized spatially. Storms will track
eastward across the I-35 corridor into the overnight hours and
continue to pose a damaging-wind risk and perhaps embedded
tornadoes. However, confidence in the overall severe-risk decreases
with eastward extent.

Farther north, additional thunderstorm development is expected near
a warm front extending across northeastern KS and vicinity during
the evening/overnight hours. While buoyancy will be weaker here,
40-50 kt of effective shear and increasing low-level shear in the warm-advection regime will support organized clusters and
potentially a couple supercells. The primary concern with these
storms will be damaging wind gusts and a couple tornadoes.

...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Along/south of a stalled surface front, ample diurnal heating amid
upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints and limited inhibition should promote
widely scattered thunderstorms from the middle OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic during the day. While midlevel flow will be modest, a
subtle speed max glancing the area should contribute to around 25-30
kt of effective shear. This should promote a couple loosely
organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
isolated, marginally severe hail. A relatively higher corridor of
severe potential is possible over northern VA and vicinity, though
confidence in storm coverage and overall intensity was too low to
upgrade at this time.

..Weinman.. 03/31/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeastward
from the southern/central Plains into the upper MS Valley. This will
help advect a plume of seasonally rich moisture (upper 50s to low
60s dewpoints) northward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions
through the day and into the overnight hours. Residual convection
emanating out of the mid-MS Valley during the morning hours is
forecast to re-intensify by mid to late afternoon. Concurrently, a
second round of thunderstorms is anticipated along the synoptic cold
front along the MS Valley by late afternoon. Both rounds of
thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe winds, tornadoes, and
sporadic large hail as the regional wind field intensifies through
the day.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Latest guidance continues to depict broken convective bands
(residual from overnight convection over the Plains) moving out of
central and northern MO during the late morning/early afternoon
hours. As the synoptic cyclone lift north, moisture advection will
likely keep pace with the convection given 20-25 mph surface winds
and 45-55 knot flow within the lowest kilometer. Diluted diurnal
heating should support adequate (albeit very modest) destabilization
for a re-intensification of convection by the mid-afternoon hours.
Despite very limited buoyancy (MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg), the
combination of very strong low-level flow and 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH will support organized lines with an attendant threat for severe
winds and tornadoes. The northern and eastern extent of the
wind/tornado threat remains somewhat nebulous and will be
conditional on the quality of downstream destabilization.

...Mid/Upper MS River Valley...
Air mass recover appears likely in the wake of early-morning
convection across northern MO into IA/western IL with most forecast
guidance depicting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 to perhaps 1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Forcing along the cold front to the south of the
surface low will likely support semi-discrete convection that should
propagate east/northeast into northern IL by late afternoon and
evening. A combination of regionally higher buoyancy and strong
low-level flow (similar 0-1 km SRH values between 250-300 m2/s2 are
expected) will support a threat for semi-discrete cells capable of
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes (including the
potential for significant tornadoes).

...Mid-South...
A moist and weakly capped environment across the Mid-South/lower OH
Valley will support convection through peak heating. However,
increasing displacement from stronger synoptic ascent and a lack of
more focused mesoscale ascent will likely result in more isolated
thunderstorm coverage. Nonetheless, deep-layer wind shear will
support organized convection, including the potential for a
supercell or two through early evening.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011732
SWODY2
SPC AC 011730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear
probable across parts of eastern Iowa into southern Wisconsin,
northern and central Illinois late Thursday afternoon and evening.
Some of these tornadoes may become fast moving and strong.

...Discussion...
While a notable mid/upper high persists across the southwestern mid-
into subtropical western Atlantic, flow emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to remain progressive into and
across the Pacific coast through this period. Within this regime, a
strong mid/upper jet streak, short wave trough and embedded
mid-level cyclone are forecast to dig across the northern U.S.
Pacific coast through the northern Great Basin/Intermountain Region
and Rockies by early Friday. It appears that this will be
accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the
Colorado Rockies late Thursday through Thursday night.

As this occurs, a preceding short wave trough, which has emerged
from the southern mid-latitude Pacific, likely will be forced
north-northeast of the central Great Plains through the Upper
Midwest and upper Great Lakes region by late Thursday night. Models
suggest that it will deamplify as it does, but an initially deep
associated surface cyclone may maintain considerable strength as its
center migrates from northeastern Kansas through northeastern Iowa
by late afternoon, before undergoing more appreciable weakening
while continuing across the eastern Wisconsin/Lower Michigan
vicinity overnight.

...Great Plains into Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes...
Considerable convective development may be ongoing at the outset of
the period across the mid/lower Mississippi Valley into the Great
Lakes, and southward across the eastern Great Plains into central
Texas. Much of this is likely to be well in the process of
weakening, particularly across the southeastern Great Plains, as the
mid/upper wave continues accelerating across/north-northeast of the
central Great Plains during the day.

Due to still somewhat modest warm sector boundary-layer moisture,
and convective cloud cover spreading downstream across the potential near-surface inflow environment, models suggest little potential for appreciable destabilization and re-intensification of the initial
pre-cold frontal convective development as it spreads across and
east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley during the day.

However, in its wake, a corridor of better pre-cold frontal
low-level moisture return, beneath a plume of a steeper mid-level
lapse rates associated with a developing dry slot, is forecast to
contribute to at least a narrow corridor of substantive
boundary-layer destabilization. It appears that this may include
CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg along/ahead of a developing
dryline/closely trailing cold front, from the vicinity of the low
across east central Iowa southwestward toward the Missouri Ozarks by
20-21Z.

Particularly near the surface low and warm front intersection,
forcing for ascent probably will be sufficient to support intense
convective development, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear
and large clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (beneath a 50+ kt
southerly 850 mb jet). This should, at least initially, include
discrete supercell development with potential to produce tornadoes,
before perhaps growing upscale while developing east-northeastward
ahead of the surface cyclone into Thursday evening.

Additional supercells are likely to continue developing
south-southwestward along the trailing dryline, before it is
overtaken by the cold front, toward the lower Missouri Valley.
Embedded within south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the
order of 50+ kts, fast storm motions roughly aligned with the axis
of destabilization could support a couple of long-lived/long track
supercells with potential for strong tornadoes, before convection
weakens Thursday evening.

..Kerr.. 04/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020606
SWODY2
SPC AC 020604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
An extensive squall line may develop across parts of the east
central Great Plains late Friday afternoon, and perhaps become
capable of producing widespread strong to severe wind gusts and a
risk for tornadoes while advancing toward to the middle Mississippi
Valley and southeastern Great Plains through Friday evening.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave approaching
the Pacific Northwest. This feature is forecast to translate
east/southeastward over the next 48 hours, eventually ejecting into
the central Plains late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. As
this occurs, robust cyclogenesis is expected along a residual
baroclinic zone across the southern to central Plains. Low to mid
60s dewpoints will spread north from the southern Plains/Ozark
Plateau into the Midwest as the baroclinic zone lifts northward as a
warm front. By late afternoon a cold front will begin pushing
southeast across NE, KS, and OK, which will support scattered to
widespread thunderstorm development by early evening. Elsewhere,
more isolated thunderstorms are expected along the warm frontal zone
draped from the Midwest into the upper OH Valley.

....Iowa and northern Missouri...
Regionally, the best convective environment will most likely emerge
immediately south of the warm front and ahead of the developing
surface low. Here, seasonally rich low-level moisture coupled with
several hours of synoptic-scale ascent/cooling aloft will support
MLCAPE values upwards of 2000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear magnitudes
should be maximized within the warm sector given closer proximity to
the upper jet. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show a
favorable tornado environment along the northern fringe of the warm
sector, characterized by effective SRH values on the order of
200-250 m2/s2 and STP values likely increasing into the 2-4 range by
early evening.

This environment will likely support a threat for significant
tornadoes given discrete storm modes; however, guidance continues to
suggest that initially discrete cells developing along the cold
front will likely grow upscale within a few hours. CAM solutions
continue to vary regarding the possibility of pre-frontal supercell
development along the warm front and/or within the warm sector.
Limited confidence in a prolonged supercell tornado threat precludes
higher tornado probabilities at this time, though the strongly
sheared low-level wind profile will likely support an embedded
tornado threat within the line to the south of the warm front. If
pre-frontal supercells can develop along/near the surface warm front
(as hinted by recent ARW and RRFS solutions) they will likely pose a
threat for strong tornadoes. As the convective line matures and
spreads east, severe gusts should become more prevalent, including
the potential for a significant wind gust or two given the focused
low-level mass response in close proximity to the surface low.

...Kansas into Oklahoma and northern Texas...
Scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated by
late afternoon along the trailing cold front from eastern KS into
northern OK. Wind vectors through much of the profile will promote
storm motion and orientation along the initiating cold front, which
will result in quick upscale growth into a convective line.
Propagation southeastward into the warm sector may be modulated by
the mean southwesterly flow regime, though the line should
eventually move east/southeast through late evening and overnight as
the cold front advances southeast. While severe hail may be an
initial threat as convection develops, strong to severe wind gusts
should quickly become the predominant hazard with some threat for
embedded circulations.

Further southwest into southwest OK/northwest TX, weaker forcing for
ascent will likely yield more sparse storm coverage but a higher
probability for discrete cells. Forecast hodographs depict marginal
low-level wind shear, but favorably elongated wind profiles aloft
that will favor splitting supercells capable of producing large to
very large (2+ inch) hail. There is also a signal in some guidance
for somewhat more scattered, potentially elevated, convection
developing by early afternoon across northwest to north-central TX
within a weak warm advection regime. While confidence in how
widespread or intense this activity will be is limited due to model
variance, the environment should support organized cells capable of
large hail.

...Ohio Valley...
Ascent along the residual boundary should promote isolated
thunderstorm by late afternoon as diurnal heating erodes inhibition.
While deep-layer flow will be more modest compared to locations
further west, 30-35 knot mid-level winds will help support a few
organized cells capable of large hail and damaging gusts.

..Moore.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021726
SWODY2
SPC AC 021724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Storms are expected to evolve into an extensive line by Friday
evening from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas, with the primary
threats of large hail and damaging winds. A few tornadoes and
isolated very large hail will be possible from northern Missouri
into southern Iowa with any sustained supercells.

...Northern MO/southern IA area...
A surface cyclone will progress northeastward from northeast KS to
southern IA by Friday evening, and then continue to southern WI by
early Saturday, in advance of a midlevel trough crossing NE/SD
during the day and IA/MN overnight. Lingering steep midlevel lapse
rates, boundary-layer dewpoints increasing into the 60s along and
south of a warm front, and surface heating in cloud breaks will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be
sufficient for supercells in the warm sector east-southeast of the
cyclone track, but there are concerns about a mixed/messy convective
mode evolution. In a conditional sense, any sustained supercells
will pose a threat for tornadoes and isolated very large hail (2+
inches in diameter). All hazards will be modulated by the actual
mode evolution, with more wind potential where a mode linear mode
dominates. Have opted to maintain the ENH risk area, but confidence
is low in the forecast details.

...Ozarks to northwest TX...
Farther southwest, convection is expected to become rather
widespread by Friday evening from the Ozarks across OK into north TX
along and just ahead of a surface cold front. Weaknesses in
low-midlevel flow are noted in forecast hodographs, which in
combination with expected upscale growth along the front both cast
doubt on the potential for sustained supercells. The more probable
hazards across this area will be occasional large hail and wind
damage Friday afternoon into early Friday night.

...Southwest TX...
Isolated storm development will be possible Friday afternoon/evening
along and east of the dryline and higher terrain, generally from the
Trans Pecos to the Rio Grande. Isolated large hail/severe gusts
will be possible in an environment sufficient for supercell
structures.

..Thompson.. 04/02/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030550
SWODY2
SPC AC 030549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible
Saturday afternoon and evening in parts of the Ohio Valley.
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts and hail will also be
possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the north-central
U.S. on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 knot mid-level jet
translates eastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold
front will advance eastward through the Ohio Valley. Ahead of the
front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 60s F.
Instability will increase along the moist axis during the day, with
SBCAPE likely peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Thunderstorm
development will take place ahead of the front in the afternoon as
low-level convergence gradually becomes focused. A line of strong to
severe storms is expected to develop and move eastward across the
Ohio Valley in the late afternoon and early evening. Additional
strong to severe storms will be possible in the central Appalachians
during the late afternoon.

A gradual increase in deep-layer shear is expected across the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, as the upper-level trough approaches
from the west. In central Ohio, forecast soundings increase 0-6 km
shear from 25 knots at midday into the 35 to 40 knot range by late
afternoon. In addition, 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to increase
to around 7.5 C/km. This environment should be favorable for
organized multicell line segments with severe wind gusts. The
greatest wind-damage threat is forecast from Ohio southwestward into
far northern Kentucky during the late afternoon and early evening,
as the right rear quadrant of the mid-level jet passes through. This
will help strengthen large-scale ascent. Further east into the
central Appalachians, large-scale ascent will be weaker, but a
conditional threat for severe storms will exist as low-level lapse
rates become steep in the late afternoon. A marginal severe threat
may also develop southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley,
where instability and shear will be sufficient for isolated severe
gusts.

...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The southern extent of an upper-level trough will move eastward
across southern and central Plains on Saturday. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward through the Ark-La-Tex and
Texas Coastal Plains. As surface temperatures warm during the day
and low-level convergence increases near the front, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms will develop. A large complex of storms will
move east-southeastward toward the western Gulf Coast during the
late afternoon and early evening. Over much of the moist sector,
SBCAPE is forecast in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg range with 0-6 km shear
of 25 to 30 knots. This should be enough for isolated severe wind
gusts. Hail could also occur.

..Broyles.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031732
SWODY2
SPC AC 031730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...MUCH OF OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may develop and overspread the lower Great
Lakes vicinity and middle through upper Ohio Valley Saturday
afternoon and evening, accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts
and potential for a couple of tornadoes.

...Discussion...
As mid-level ridging builds further across the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, models
indicate that several digging downstream short wave troughs across
the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. Great Plains may
contribute to the northeastward acceleration of a notable mid-level
low, now slowly turning eastward toward the middle Missouri Valley.
In response to these developments, an initially modest surface
cyclone associated with the lead perturbation is generally forecast
to undergo substantive deepening while occluding across and
northeast of the upper Great Lakes vicinity. A secondary cyclone
may form across the southeastern Michigan through Lake
Huron/Georgian Bay/adjacent Ontario vicinity by Saturday afternoon,
with a trailing cold front continuing to advance east of the
Mississippi Valley and southward through the southern Great Plains,
into the Appalachians/lower Mississippi Valley/northwest Gulf coast
vicinity by early Sunday.

Initially cold, stable air to the north of a preceding front may
remain entrenched across much of New England through this period,
while widespread thunderstorm development today through tonight cuts
off the advection of elevated mixed-layer air and associated steeper
mid-level lapse rates to the east of the Mississippi Valley. At the
same time the impact of lingering pre-frontal convective
development, associated surface outflow and northeastward/eastward
advecting remnant cloud cover on subsequent destabilization within a potentially expanding warm sector across the mid/upper Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes region remain unclear.

...Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region...
Conditionally, a relatively moist (60+ F surface dew points) within
the evolving warm sector is likely to become conducive to organized
severe thunderstorm development, including supercells, Saturday
afternoon and evening. However, stronger mid/upper support for
ascent may remain displaced to the northwest of much of the
destabilizing warm sector, with strongest forcing for convection
confined to the front, or, perhaps more likely, a conglomerate
pre-frontal outflow. Although the signal in model output is not
particularly strong, it appears possible that convection may begin re-intensifying along the leading outflow boundary while
overspreading southeastern Lower Michigan into the lower Ohio Valley
by early afternoon. As this occurs, strong lower/mid-tropospheric
shear beneath south to southwesterly wind fields strengthening to
40-60+ kt in the 850-500 mb layer will be more than sufficient to
support organization and increasing risk for severe wind gusts and
tornadoes. This threat likely will persist as activity overspreads
much of the remainder of the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes
region into Saturday evening.

...Parts of the Mid South into northwestern Gulf Coast...
Weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent, deep-layer mean wind field and
shear suggest more limited severe weather potential than further
north. However, somewhat better boundary-layer moisture, including
mid 60s F+ dew points, may contribute moderate CAPE ahead of
southeastward advancing convective outflow. It appears possible
that this could support re-intensification of convection that could
become accompanied by sporadic damaging downbursts late Saturday
afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031746
SWODY2
SPC AC 031745

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...MUCH OF OHIO...SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...

CORRECTED FOR WORDING AND TYPOS

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may develop and overspread the lower Great
Lakes vicinity and middle through upper Ohio Valley Saturday
afternoon and evening, accompanied by strong to severe wind gusts
and potential for a couple of tornadoes.

...Discussion...
As mid-level ridging builds further across the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, models
indicate that several digging downstream short wave troughs across
the Canadian Prairies into the northern U.S. Great Plains may
contribute to the northeastward acceleration of a notable mid-level
low, now slowly turning eastward toward the middle Missouri Valley.
In response to these developments, an initially modest surface
cyclone associated with the lead perturbation is generally forecast
to undergo substantive deepening while occluding across and
northeast of the upper Great Lakes vicinity. A secondary cyclone
may form across the southeastern Michigan through Lake
Huron/Georgian Bay/adjacent Ontario vicinity by Saturday afternoon,
with a trailing cold front continuing to advance east of the
Mississippi Valley and southward through the southern Great Plains,
into the Appalachians/lower Mississippi Valley/northwest Gulf coast
vicinity by early Sunday.

Initially cold, stable air to the north of a preceding front may
remain entrenched across much of New England through this period,
while widespread thunderstorm development today through tonight cuts
off the advection of elevated mixed-layer air and associated steeper
mid-level lapse rates to the east of the Mississippi Valley. At the
same time, the impact of lingering pre-frontal convective
development, associated surface outflow and northeastward/eastward
advecting remnant cloud cover on subsequent destabilization within a potentially expanding warm sector across the mid/upper Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes region remains unclear.

...Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region...
Conditionally, a relatively moist (60+ F surface dew points) air
mass within the evolving warm sector is likely to become conducive
to organized severe thunderstorm development, including supercells,
Saturday afternoon and evening. However, stronger mid/upper support
for ascent may remain displaced to the northwest of much of the
destabilizing warm sector, with strongest forcing for convection
confined to the front, or, perhaps more likely, a conglomerate
pre-frontal outflow.

Although the signal in model output is not particularly strong, it
appears possible that convection may begin re-intensifying along the
leading outflow boundary while overspreading southeastern Lower
Michigan into the lower Ohio Valley by early afternoon. As this
occurs, strong lower/mid-tropospheric shear beneath south to
southwesterly wind fields strengthening to 40-60+ kt in the 850-500
mb layer will be more than sufficient to support organization and
increasing risk for severe wind gusts and tornadoes. This threat
likely will persist as activity overspreads much of the remainder of
the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region into Saturday evening.


...Parts of the Mid South into northwestern Gulf Coast...
Weaker mid/upper forcing for ascent, deep-layer mean wind field and
shear suggest more limited severe weather potential than further
north. However, somewhat better boundary-layer moisture, including
mid 60s F+ dew points, may contribute moderate CAPE ahead of
southeastward advancing convective outflow. It appears possible
that this could support re-intensification of convection that could
become accompanied by sporadic damaging downbursts late Saturday
afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 04/03/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040545
SWODY2
SPC AC 040543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST....

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
Sunday afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
coast.

...Eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic Coast...
An upper-level trough will move across the lower Great Lakes on
Sunday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the Mid-Atlantic
and Carolinas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60s will contribute to weak instability by afternoon. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to form just ahead of the
front from southern Maryland south-southwestward into the eastern
Carolinas. Forecast soundings along this corridor have 35 to 40
knots of flow in the 500 to 1000 meter layer above ground level.
Cells that develop in the mid to late afternoon in areas that
destabilize the most could mix these strong winds to the surface,
resulting in an isolated wind-damage threat.

..Broyles.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041709
SWODY2
SPC AC 041708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible on
Sunday afternoon from the eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic
coast.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...

An upper trough over the Great Lakes/Midwest region will develop
eastward over the eastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold
front will extend south/southwest across the Mid-Atlantic into
central AL at midday. Ahead of the front, a plume of low 60s F
dewpoints will be in place across the eastern Carolinas into
southern NJ. Where stronger heating can occur, weak destabilization
is expected. Enhanced low and midlevel flow (30-40 kt just off the
surface) could support isolated strong to severe wind gusts where
stronger heating and modest destabilization occurs. Overall severe
thunderstorm potential should be tempered by poor lapse rates and
MLCAPE generally less than 750 J/kg.

..Leitman.. 04/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051655
SWODY2
SPC AC 051653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Sun Apr 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday across
the Florida Peninsula, parts of the Southwest, and portions of
Oregon, but no severe threat is forecast.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will persist across the eastern U.S. on Monday.
Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough will migrate across the
Southwest, while another shortwave trough overspreads the Pacific
Northwest late in the period.

At the surface, a cold front will extend across north-central FL
into the Gulf. High pressure will build over the Upper Midwest, and
a dry/stable boundary layer will envelop much of the CONUS, aside
from FL. A seasonally warm/moist airmass ahead of the surface cold
front will support modest destabilization across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon/early evening. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical
shear will preclude severe potential.

Additional isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the Southwest. Steep midlevel lapse rates amid increasing midlevel
moisture and weak instability should be sufficient for isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development as the upper shortwave trough
overspreads the region. A few weak thunderstorms may also develop
across portions of Oregon late in the afternoon and evening.
Midlevel moistening is expected as height falls and steepening
midlevel lapse rates overspread the area with the approach of an
upper shortwave trough. Severe storms are not expected in these
areas given modest vertical shear and weak instability.

..Leitman.. 04/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060546
SWODY2
SPC AC 060545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, and in the southern Rockies. No
severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move through the Northeast on Tuesday, as
a cold front moves slowly across the Florida Peninsula. South of the
boundary, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak
instability. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this
airmass, mainly across the southern and central Florida Peninsula in
the afternoon. Additional storms are expected on Tuesday from far
west Texas northward into the southern Rockies. No severe threat is
forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061636
SWODY2
SPC AC 061635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1135 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday across
parts of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern
High Plains. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...

Strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and a cold front
oriented across north-central FL into the Gulf will result in a
mostly dry/stable boundary layer east of the Rockies. Ahead of the
front across parts of the FL Peninsula, a seasonally moist and
weakly unstable airmass will be in place. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across the central/southern FL
Peninsula and the Keys, though modest vertical shear and poor lapse
rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

Additional isolated to scattered storms are possible across portions
of the Four Corners and southern Rockies vicinity. Midlevel
moistening amid steep lapse rates will support weak destabilization
as an upper shortwave trough moves across the region. This should
support weak thunderstorm activity, though severe storms are not
expected. Further north, another upper shortwave trough will move
across the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains. While
moisture will be limited (PW values generally less than .75 in), a
few high-based thunderstorms will be possible across eastern MT and
vicinity as steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft
foster weak destabilization. Inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles may support locally gusty winds, but severe convection is
not expected.

..Leitman.. 04/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071644
SWODY2
SPC AC 071642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail will be possible in parts of
western and central Kansas late Wednesday afternoon into the
evening.

...Kansas...

A compact upper trough will pivot across the northern Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday into early Thursday. At the surface, low
pressure centered over southern Manitoba will develop east/northeast
toward James Bay by the end of the period. A trailing cold front
will shift southeast across the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
Gulf moisture return will remain muted given persistent high
pressure over the East and prior cold frontal intrusions into the
Gulf. As a result, surface dewpoints will mainly be in the 40s ahead
of the cold front across the central Plains. Nevertheless, cool
temperatures aloft (around -18 to -16 C at 500 mb) will support a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across the region. This will aid
in weak destabilization in a narrow corridor near the front during
the late afternoon and evening. Low-level flow through at least 700
mb will remain fairly weak (less than 20 kt), but vertically veering
wind profiles with stronger northwest flow aloft will result in
supercell wind profiles and 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected just ahead of the cold front
from late afternoon into the evening hours across western and
central KS. While instability will be the main limiting factor for a
more robust severe risk, isolated large hail will be possible with
any stronger updrafts that can be maintained. Additionally, a well
mixed boundary-layer with inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic
profiles are evident in forecast soundings. Weak low-level flow will
temper the damaging wind risk, but locally strong gusts will be
possible.

..Leitman.. 04/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080559
SWODY2
SPC AC 080557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for large hail and strong wind gusts is expected
to develop Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of the lower to
mid Missouri Valley westward into Kansas, and southwestward into the
Texas Panhandle.

...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central and Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move across the north-central U.S.
on Thursday, as westerly flow remains over the central states. At
the surface, moisture return will take place across the southern and
central Plains. A cold front is forecast to move southward into far
northern Kansas by afternoon. Surface heating and increasing
low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered
thunderstorm development during the late afternoon, with storms
gradually increasing in coverage in the evening. The latest model
forecasts suggest that a pocket of moderate instability will develop
across north-central Kansas, with weaker instability extending
eastward into northern Missouri. NAM forecast soundings in the late
afternoon near the front show about 40 knots of 0-6 km shear with
700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8 C/km. This should support
isolated supercell development with potential for large hail.
Surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are forecast to exceed 20 F
along much of this corridor, which would contribute to a potential
for isolated severe gusts.

Further southwest into southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle,
dryline development will be possible as surface dewpoints gradually
increase during the day. Isolated thunderstorms may form to the east
of the dryline during the early evening. Weak instability, moderate
deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates may support a
marginal severe threat. Isolated damaging wind gusts and hail will
be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081722
SWODY2
SPC AC 081720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Areas of hail and strong wind gusts are expected Thursday afternoon
and evening in parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley westward
into Kansas. Locally very large hail is possible.

...Synopsis...
An area of cyclonic flow aloft will exist from central into eastern
Canada, with various waves rotating from the northern Plains across
the Great Lakes. The southern periphery of the stronger winds aloft
will extend across much of the northern Plains and the Midwest, with
30 kt 500 mb winds as far south as northern KS and MO.

At the surface, a warm front will lift north across northern KS and
MO during the day, with 50s F dewpoints spreading north with gusty
south winds. As a shortwave disturbance moves into the northern
Plains late, a surge of high pressure will push this boundary south
as a cold front after 00Z, extending from southwest KS into central
MO and IL by 12Z Friday. Scattered strong to severe storms will be
most likely along this east-west front, with more isolated activity
from western KS into the TX Panhandle along a dryline.

..Central Plains...
Storms are expected to develop relatively early, perhaps around 18Z
over northeast KS into southeast NE as warm/moistening air from the
south interacts with the warm front. Strong heating south of the
boundary will result in steep low-level lapse rates, while the
increasing theta-e rises near the boundary and beneath cold midlevel temperatures. The cold profiles aloft along with 40 kt effective
deep-layer shear will favor hail production, with perhaps isolated
very large hail.

As heating peaks during the later afternoon, additional cells are
expected extending southwestward into north-central KS. Though
dewpoints will only be in the 50s F, slow-moving supercells will be
possible, again with very large hail.

With west to northwest winds aloft, all these storms may eventually
merge into the evening, propagating southeastward across much of
eastern KS into northwest MO. The warm boundary layer, combined with
cold downdraft material, will likely support scattered damaging
gusts.

..Jewell.. 04/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090553
SWODY2
SPC AC 090551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks...
An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Friday, as
mid-level flow remains westerly across much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly
southward to near the Kansas and Oklahoma state-line by midday.
Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level convergence
near the front will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development in the afternoon and evening. Surface dewpoints in the
lower 60s F will contribute to a pocket of instability near the
front in the afternoon, with MLCAPE forecast to peak around 1500
J/kg. In addition, deep-layer shear is forecast to be around 30
knots near the front with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8
C/km range. This environment should be sufficient for an isolated
severe threat. Severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats.

..Broyles.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091724
SWODY2
SPC AC 091722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible on Friday over parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks. A couple strong storms may occur late from
northern Nevada into southwest Idaho.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will progress from the Great Lakes region into the
Northeast, with temporary ridging across the Plains. To the west, a
large-scale upper trough will develop, with a lead wave moving into
the Great Basin overnight while a deeper upper low drops south off
the West Coast. Despite the ridging over the Plains, midlevel
temperatures will remain seasonably cool with around -14 C over KS.

At the surface, high pressure will move from the northern Plains
toward the Great Lakes, with a cold front moving across the
Northeast and into the OH Valley. Farther west, this front will
decelerate from southern MO into northern OK, and become a warm
front overnight into southern KS. Elsewhere, a surface trough will
develop from ID into NV as height falls occur late.

...From northeast NM eastward across southern KS and northern OK...
Showers and storms may be ongoing Friday morning from southeast KS
into northern OK, southwest MO and into northwest AR, with perhaps
some strong gust potential. This activity may weaken during the day.
To the west, strong heating will occur south of the main boundary,
with 50 F to near 60 F dewpoints resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE.
Backed surface winds near the boundary will likely aid storm
development into northeast NM late in the afternoon, with activity
moving into the OK/TX Panhandles during the evening. Activity will
be slow moving, with localized hail or wind potential.

...Northwest NV into southwest ID...
Strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures will result in
steep lapse rates across the region as the upper trough gradually
approaches. Deep-layer shear will be weak during the day but will
increase to 35-40 kt by evening as height falls arrive. Given the
later influence of the upper trough and marginal combination of
shear and instability, will maintain no severe probabilities at this
time. However, a cell or two could produce locally strong gusts or small/marginal hail into the evening.

..Jewell.. 04/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100523
SWODY2
SPC AC 100521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on
Saturday.

...Southern/Central Plains...

Upper ridging will be in place over the central U.S. early Saturday.
A weak upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will migrate
northeast through the period, along with several other lead
shortwave impulses ahead of a larger-scale western trough/upper low
near the Pacific coast. This will result in deamplification of the
upper ridge. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt
will overspread much of the Plains. At the surface, low pressure
will deepen over Montana and eventually develop east across the
northern Plains late in the period, while lee troughing extends
southward across the High Plains. Increasing south/southeasterly
low-level flow will transport 50s and low 60s F dewpoints northward
toward the Mid-MO Valley, and westward toward western KS/OK/TX.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface
trough across eastern NM/western TX during the afternoon as modest
large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Cloud cover will limit
daytime heating, but steepening lapse rates and modestly increasing boundary-layer moisture will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak but sufficient for at least
transient organized cells capable of producing large hail. As a
low-level jet increases during the evening, some consolidation of
updrafts could occur and linear segments/small bows could produce
locally strong wind gusts.

Further north, a more conditional risk is expected across the
central Plains. A warm front will lift northward across KS/NE during
the afternoon and into early evening. Forecast soundings indicate
capping will likely preclude much convective development within the
warm sector. However, if any cells are able to develop and become
sustained near the warm front, a severe risk will be possible. This
scenario is uncertain, and will maintain Level 1 of 5/Marginal risk. Additionally cells are possible during the evening across parts of
eastern CO/western KS/western NE near the surface trough. Locally
strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms.

...Central CA...

Low-topped thunderstorms are possible in the north-central Valley
vicinity during the afternoon/evening as cooling aloft and
increasing ascent overspread the region ahead of an upper low over
the eastern Pacific. Instability is expected to remain weak (less
than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), but small hail and gusty winds may briefly
occur with stronger cells. As the upper low and a surface cold front
approach the central coast overnight, a line of low-topped
convection could bring gusty winds as well. Severe storms are not
expected at this time.

...Great Basin vicinity...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during
the afternoon and evening as a compact upper shortwave trough moves
over the region. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel
lapse rates and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. However, a well
mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles and around 30 kt southwesterly flow through 600 mb could
support locally gusty winds. Overall, severe potential appears
limited.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101732
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on
Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge across the Plains will move east through the day
on Saturday with a strong mid-level trough approaching the
California coast. In between these 2 features, a mid-level shortwave
trough will move from the Great Basin to the Northern Plains. Lee
surface troughing will develop across the Front Range. The resulting strengthening low-level southerly flow will bring moisture northward
across the Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop by early afternoon
across West Texas and into eastern New Mexico. Weak inhibition
should allow for widespread thunderstorm development by early to
mid-afternoon. Relatively weak shear, especially early on will
likely result in somewhat nebulous organization and storm mergers
which may preclude individual updraft longevity/strength. However,
storms are expected to congeal by late afternoon and may result in
some more organized wind threat, supported into the overnight
period, as the low-level jet strengthens.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Weak height falls are expected to overspread the central Plains
through the day on Saturday. As this occurs, isolated to potentially
scattered storms are expected along and near the diffuse dryline.
Shear will remain somewhat weak across this region and therefore,
some hail/wind threat is possible, but a greater threat is not
anticipated. Guidance shows a small jet-streak ejecting across
central Kansas during the day Saturday. This may provide a slightly
more favorable zone of shear across central Kansas and southeast
Nebraska Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show an
uncapped environment, but without an initiating boundary, storm
development remains uncertain. Any mesoscale lift associated with
this mid-level jet streak could result in an isolated supercell
during the afternoon/evening, but this scenario remains conditional.

...Iowa into southern Minnesota...
As the low-level jet strengthens Saturday night, isentropic ascent
will increase and thunderstorms will develop across the Upper
Midwest. Some 12Z CAM guidance has hinted at some additional
elevated thunderstorms across northern Iowa and southern Minnesota
in the wake of the primary zone of ascent. This is likely associated
with the same jet streak moving across Kansas during the day. If
storms develop within this zone, forecast soundings support some
large hail threat. Therefore, the Marginal Risk has been expanded to
cover this threat.

...Central California...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will approach the California
coast Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings show relatively weak
instability ahead of this line (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE). However, 40
knots of flow in the lowest 1km may be sufficient to mix down some
of these stronger winds and result in some severe wind threat
Saturday afternoon/evening.

...Great Basin Vicinity...
Given the well-mixed, steep lapse-rate environment a few of the
storms which develop across the Great Basin vicinity could have some
strong wind gusts. Relatively weak instability may keep these
stronger gusts somewhat sporadic. Therefore, a Marginal Risk will
not be introduced at this time.

..Bentley.. 04/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110538
SWODY2
SPC AC 110537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will slowly pivot east over the western U.S. on
Sunday while upper riding envelopes the East. A couple of shortwave
impulses will migrate northeast from the Plains to the Upper
Midwest/MS Valley vicinity. Persistent midlevel southwesterly flow
across the central portions will maintain lee troughing over the
Plains. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F
dewpoints northward from TX to WI ahead of a surface trough/dryline
oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest
into northwest OK and western TX. A surface low is forecast to move
across the Upper Midwest, where a boundary will be draped across
southern MN into WI.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Sunday
morning across OK/TX, with more isolated activity possible northward
into the Mid-MO Valley. This convection will have implications on
airmass recovery and thunderstorm development along the dryline
during the afternoon/evening. Some isolated wind/hail risk could
accompany this early activity as clusters and/or line segments move
across OK/TX during the morning.

In the wake of this morning activity, persistent southwesterly
mid/upper flow will maintain a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
and mixing near the dryline should erode cloud cover over portions
of KS/OK/western TX. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, with a
lack of height falls precluding large-scale support for thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, modest confluence along the dryline is
forecast. Mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates will support
up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, supercell wind profiles are
apparent in forecast soundings. This environment will conditionally
support supercells along the dryline by late afternoon into the
evening. However, given a lack of forcing, storm coverage is
uncertain. If storms can develop along the dryline, at least a
narrow corridor of large to very large hail potential will exist in
addition to damaging winds and a tornado or two.

Some guidance suggests morning convection could intensify or
redevelop across portions of north/central TX toward the ArkLaTex,
but this scenario remains very uncertain.

...South Texas/Rio Grande vicinity...

A conditional severe risk is apparent during the evening/nighttime
hours. A moderately unstable airmass will be in place, though
deep-layer flow will be somewhat weaker compared to further north. Nevertheless, some guidance suggests supercells will develop across
Mexico and could approach/cross the Rio Grande during the evening.
If this occurs, an initial risk for large hail and damaging gusts
will exist. With time, some potential for clustering could occur and
bring a continued risk for strong winds across portions of south-central/southern TX during the nighttime hours.

...Upper Midwest...

Thunderstorm development during peak heating is uncertain. If the
upper shortwave trough moves across the area too early, convective
development may be limited in the wake of that feature.
Nevertheless, a corridor of modest destabilization is expected ahead
of the surface low as cool temperatures aloft support steepened
midlevel lapse rates amid a moistening boundary layer. If storms
develop, isolated severe hail and wind are possible with stronger
storms.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111731
SWODY2
SPC AC 111730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, an upper-level low will move inland across the West Coast
while ridging continues across the eastern US. Broad southwesterly
flow will propagate across the Rockies and into the Plains, with
several shortwaves troughs pivoting through the plains into the
upper Midwest. This pattern will favor lee troughing in the lee of
the Rockies. Across the southern/central Plains, southerly surface
flow will usher in moisture northward all the way from the southern
Plains into the upper Mid-west ahead of surface trough/dryline
oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest
into northwest OK and western TX.

It is likely that widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be
ongoing at the start of the D2/Sunday period across TX/OK and across central/northern MN. Some re-intensification of convection will be
possible across portions of central/eastern Texas. Additional
activity is expected to develop by the afternoon in the vicinity of
the dryline and across the Sierra Madre in Mexico.

...Central/Southern Plains...
In the wake of morning convection across portions of western Texas
into the OK/TX Panhandles, strong southwesterly flow will continue
to advect warm moist boundary layer conditions and a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates. HREF guidance shows persistent mid to high
level clouds remaining in place across the region through the early
afternoon. It is likely that with mixing/heating some breaks in this
cloud cover will allow for sheltered heating and air mass recovery.
Most guidance suggests MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will be common
from western Texas into western/central OK and southern KS. Given
the nebulous forcing, convective initiation in the afternoon will
likely be tied initially to the dryline circulation from western
Texas into western Oklahoma and high terrain in Mexico. Generally
linear hodographs and the steep lapse rate profiles will support
risk for large to very large hail and strong to severe winds.
Additional more isolated development may occur across the dryline in
KS/NE. With any supercells that can maintain a semi-discrete mode,
perhaps a tornado or two will be possible.

...Upper Midwest...
Re-development of thunderstorm activity across the Upper Midwest
remains less certain Sunday afternoon. The mid-level wave will
advance eastward with a warm front lifting into Canada and surface
low tracking northeast. Most CAM guidance produces little to no
thunderstorm activity likely owing to the forcing shifting eastward
too quickly. HREF calibrated thunder signals also remain low. The
environment will be conditionally unstable, with MLCAPE around
1000-2000 J/kg overlapping favorable low-level and deep layer shear
profiles. Should an isolated storm or two occur, the potential will
remain for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado.

..Thornton.. 04/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120548
SWODY2
SPC AC 120547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...

The persistent/stagnant southwesterly flow regime will continue from
the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude
upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day
ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The
shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight.
Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the
southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners
region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will
develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Meanwhile, lee
troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend
southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm
front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These
boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development
during the afternoon/evening.

...Upper Midwest...

Strengthening southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid 60s
F dewpoints northward toward southern MN and southern/central WI.
Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the
region. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much
of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By
late afternoon/early evening, height falls are forecast to
overspread the area and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a strengthening low-level jet overspreads the warm front ahead of an eastward-progressing surface low. Initial thunderstorm activity may
be, or quickly become, elevated to the cool side of the warm front
given northeast storm motion. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles,
cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft, and moderate to strong
instability will support large hail potential.

If surface-based warm sector storms can develop, supercells capable
of all hazards will be possible. While this evolution is uncertain,
it appears most probable from southeast MN toward
south/south-central WI. Convection will spread eastward with time
into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight.

...Southern Plains...

A conditional supercell environment will exist along/east of the
surface dryline from portions of western/central OK toward the TX
Big Bend. Given a lack of height falls across the region, capping
will likely suppress convection. However, strong heating along the
dryline will promote mixing. Confluence low-level flow along the
dryline coupled with strong instability and mixing may be sufficient
for a couple of storms during the late afternoon/evening as a modest
low-level jet develops. While conditional, if a storm can develop,
supercell wind profiles suggest large hail, strong gusts and perhaps
a tornado will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121729
SWODY2
SPC AC 121727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Great Lakes region with potential for large to very large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes. A more conditional and isolated risk
for severe storms is possible across portions of the southern Plains
on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A southwesterly flow regime will continue from the southern Plains
to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude upper ridging will
move across the Upper Midwest during the day ahead of a shortwave
trough moving across the northern Plains. The shortwave will shift
east across the Great Lakes overnight. Meanwhile, an upper trough
from the northern Rockies to offshore the southern CA coast will
pivot eastward toward the Four Corners region. At the surface, low
pressure near the SD/NE border will develop east along the MN/IA
border to central WI. Lee troughing will persist across the Plains.
A dryline will extend southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western
OK/TX, while a warm front extends from southern MN into
southern/central WI. These boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening.

...Upper Midwest...
Along and south of the surface warm front across MN into
southern/central WI, strong daytime heating will be occurring amid
dew points in the low to mid 60s. This will yield moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg. A plume of steep low
to mid-level lapse rates will also impinge upon the region through
the afternoon. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity
for much of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the
region. By the late afternoon/early evening, a shortwave trough will
overspread the region with an increase in the low-level jet.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to develop, with initially
elevated supercells likely given strong deep layer shear and
thermodynamic profiles. These will be capable of large to very large
hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter). Should any supercells be able
to anchor to the warm front and become surface based, the threat for
a tornado or two (possibly strong) will increase given large
clockwise curved hodographs indicative of favorable low-level shear.
An Enhanced Risk was included with this outlook driven by the hail
potential. Convection will spread eastward with time into MI,
continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight.

...Central/Southern Plains....
A conditional severe risk will extend further down the dryline into
the central/southern Plains for the afternoon/evening. Strong
daytime heating will yield very warm temperatures ahead of the
dryline but most convective temperatures are near or exceeding 90F.
Forecast soundings indicate strong capping in place across much of
the region through the afternoon with generally weak forcing for
ascent outside of the dryline circulation, which will likely inhibit
a more widespread severe risk. Nonetheless, moderate to strong
instability will overlap increasing deep layer shear as the
low-level jet increases through the evening. An isolated supercell
threat will be possible along the dryline, with greater confidence
along the Red River in northern TX/southwestern OK and further south
into Texas near the Rio Grande Valley. Should supercells develop,
the main risk will be for large to very large hail (some 2+ inches
in diameter).

..Thornton.. 04/12/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130606
SWODY2
SPC AC 130604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday
and Tuesday night from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large
to very large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly
producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the
Northeast.

...Synopsis...

A broad swath of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the southern High Plains to the Great Lakes on Tuesday.
An upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will slowly pivot
east through the period, emerging over the central/southern High
Plains by Wednesday morning. A weak shortwave impulse is also
forecast to move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At
the surface, low pressure will be centered over the Mid-MO Valley
for much of the period, with a warm front extending east/northeast
from north-central IA into southern WI and central Lower MI.
Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest across eastern KS into
western TX. Ahead of these boundaries, a seasonally moist airmass
will be in place, with mid-60s dewpoints common. The aforementioned
surface boundaries will become a focus severe thunderstorm
development Tuesday afternoon into the nighttime hours.

...Mid-MS Valley and Great Lakes vicinity...

A severe risk is expected to develop by late afternoon within the
warm frontal zone from Iowa into northern IL/southern WI in a
persistent warm advection regime. While height tendencies are
forecast to remain mostly neutral, low-level convergence along the
boundary and a glancing influence from a weak shortwave impulse
migrating across the northern Plains into northern MN/Upper MI
should provide focused ascent. A southwesterly 850-700 mb jet is
also forecast to increase across the region by late afternoon into
evening. Cool temperatures aloft (around -16 C at 500 mb) and steep
midlevel lapse rates atop a moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE
around 2000-3000 J/kg amid elongated/straight hodographs. As a
result, large to very large hail will be possible with initial
supercell thunderstorms. Storm motion and southwesterly deep-layer
flow may result in convection moving to the cool side of the warm
front. Even so, elevated storms will pose a risk for significant
hail. With time, and as the low-level jet increases during the
evening, convection may consolidate/grow upscale into one or most
bowing segments and progress eastward into Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a
continued risk for hail and an increasing risk for damaging wind
gusts.

Any supercells that develop and can be sustained within the warm
sector will also pose a risk for a few tornadoes (some strong), very
large hail and damaging gusts.

...Southern Plains into eastern KS/western MO...

Moderate destabilization is forecast along the surface dryline by
afternoon. Strong heating along/just west of the dryline will
promote mixing, while low-level confluence and subtle height falls
(by 21-00z) provide sufficient forcing for ascent for isolated
thunderstorm development. Supercell wind profiles will be present
amid steep midlevel lapse rates and elongated hodographs. Large to
very large hail, locally strong wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes
will be possible. Storms should develop northward during the evening
into eastern KS and western MO as the low-level jet increases.

...Northeast...

Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level airmass. Strong
deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.

..Leitman.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131731
SWODY2
SPC AC 131729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night from
the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Large to very large hail, a
few tornadoes (some strong), and damaging wind gusts will be
possible, particularly across parts of eastern Iowa, northern
Illinois, and southern Wisconsin. Additional strong storms, mainly
producing strong wind gusts, will be possible across parts of the
Northeast.

...Synopsis...
The western US trough will eject across the Four Corners region into
the Intermountain West, with strong southwesterly flow overspreading
the Rockies into the central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest. A
shortwave trough will pivot through this flow across the Upper
Midwest through the period. A surface low will be centered over the
Mid-MO Valley for much of the period, with a warm front extending east/northeast from north-central IA into southern WI and central
Lower MI. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southwest across eastern
KS into western TX. These features will be the focus of scattered
thunderstorm development through the afternoon and evening.

...Mid-Missouri Valley and Great Lakes Region...
Strong daytime heating is expected along and south of the warm from north-central IA into southern WI and lower MI Tuesday afternoon.
This in combination with dew points in the low to mid 60s will yield
moderate to strong instability (with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg).
Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop around 20z. Given deep
layer shear around 40 kts, storm mode will be supercellular.
Initially, low-level shear will be marginal, with generally straight
and elongated hodographs. In addition, northeasterly storm motions
will favor crossing the warm front to the cool side of the boundary.
This will make the primary threat large to very large hail (some
2-3+ inches in diameter). With time, and as the low-level jet
increases during the evening, convection may consolidate/grow
upscale into one or more bowing segments and progress eastward into
Lower MI/IN/OH, posing a continued risk for hail and an increasing
risk for damaging wind gusts.

As the strengthening 850-700 mb low-level jet axis will nudge into
central IA/northern MO/northern IL, it will usher in a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates and enlarge low-level hodographs,
increasing tornado potential. While there remains some uncertainty,
there is signal within hi-res guidance from the HREF for sustained
UH tracks south of the warm front. CAM guidance varies on how the
scenario will play out. As mentioned above, a few CAM solutions
favor clustering/linear development by the evening. Should a more
discrete supercell or two be able to root along or south of the
boundary, a few tornadoes will be possible (some strong EF2+).
Nonetheless, even with a more linear mode increasing low-level shear
will favor and increasing chance for line embedded tornadoes.

...Southern Plains into eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
Thunderstorm development is likely along the dryline across the
southern Plains Tuesday afternoon. Strong capping with remain
through most of the morning, but strong heating and convergence
along the dryline favor at least isolated thunderstorm development
by around 19-20z. The environment ahead of the dryline will be
characterized by moderate to strong instability, steep lapse rates,
and favorable deep layer shear profiles to support supercells. Large
to very large hail (1-2+ inches in diameter), damaging winds, and
perhaps a tornado.

...Northeast...
Rounds of thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and
evening within a warm advection regime. MLCAPE should increase to
around 1000 J/kg within a moistening low-level air mass. Strong
deep-layer westerly flow and steepening low-level lapse rates will
support isolated strong wind gusts across the region.

..Thornton.. 04/13/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140557
SWODY2
SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of
the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon
and evening.

...Synopsis...

A shortwave upper trough will eject from the central Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. A swath of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will extend from the southern/central Plains to the
Great Lakes/Midwest ahead of this feature. The southern extent of
the upper trough will move more slowly east, from the southern
Rockies to the southern High Plains. At the surface, low pressure is
forecast to be in the vicinity of the Mid-MO Valley/southeast NE
Wednesday morning, and will shift east/northeast along a warm front
across IA/southern WI/northern IL through evening. A trailing cold
front will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity
during the nighttime hours as the surface low continue to progress
northeast into Ontario. Further south, a dryline will extend
south/southwest across eastern KS into western OK and west-central
TX. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead
of these surface features, focusing severe thunderstorm potential
during the afternoon and evening. A warm moist and unstable airmass
will extend eastward across portions of the upper Ohio
Valley/Northeast.

...MO Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity...

Convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of the region
Wednesday morning. As a result, uncertainty exists regarding airmass
recovery and evolution of severe potential Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Persistent southwesterly flow and warm advection
ahead of the surface low will maintain a moist airmass. Convection
should redevelop by late afternoon/evening near the surface low and
along a surface boundary extending from eastern IA to near the IL/WI
border. Where heating can occur in the wake of early day convection,
MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg should develop. Supercell wind profiles
are evident in forecast soundings, especially near the surface low
where SRH will be enhanced. Initial cells may pose a risk for hail.
Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given aforementioned
concerns about boundary-layer impacts from early day convection.
However, at least low potential should exist near the surface low
and warm front/outflow. A corridor of higher tornado probabilities
may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in mesoscale
details and boundary layer recovery increases. During the evening,
upscale growth into an eastward-advancing line is expected as a
surface cold front begins to move east across the region, and
damaging winds will be possible.

...Southern Plains...

Isolated supercells are forecast to develop along the dryline in OK
into eastern KS/ and eventually portions of MO. Mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km) will
support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Some weak capping is
noted around 850 mb, which may limit storm coverage in the absence
of stronger large-scale ascent. Nevertheless, elongated/straight
hodographs above 2-3 km within a favorable thermodynamic environment
suggests large to very large hail will be possible with storms that
develop. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible given modestly
enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs and around 150
m2/s2 SRH within a narrow corridor near the dryline.

...Upper Ohio Valley toward the Northeast...

Fast deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will overspread a moistening
low-level boundary layer. Strong heating will support steepening
low-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support
midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will foster moderate
destabilization during the afternoon, promoting isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development. Damaging wind gusts and isolated
hail will be possible with this activity into the evening.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141740
SWODY2
SPC AC 141738

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of
the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and
evening.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will be located over the central Plains
on Wednesday and will move across the MS Valley and toward the Great
Lakes late. Moderate to strong mid to high level southwesterlies
will exist over much of the central and southern Plains, along with
cool temperatures aloft. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will hold over
the Southeast, with moderate winds aloft along the periphery of the
upper ridge extending from the OH Valley into the Northeast.

At the surface, low pressure will develop into IA as the upper wave
moves out of NE and KS. A front/dryline will extend south across
eastern KS, western OK and west central TX during the day.
Meanwhile, an elongated stationary front will extend from IA into
southern WI/MI and into the lower Great Lakes, with more of a warm
front into NY and southern New England. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
will remain roughly from TX into IA, with lower 60s F dewpoints
along the length of the stationary front.

...TX/OK/KS/IA/MO/IL...
A focused area of severe storm potential will develop south of the
developing low and along the dryline during the afternoon. Although
the wave will be moving away from OK/TX, the dryline should stall
with strong instability developing and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg.
Minimal lift will be required near the dryline to initiate afternoon
storms, possibly before 21Z. Cells should develop from northwest TX
across OK and into southeast KS, and gain strength as 50-60 kt
effective shear acts upon them. Both supercells and bowing
structures will be possible, with areas of very large hail and
damaging winds expected. A few tornadoes may occur given the strong
instability and midlevel lapse rates, despite marginal low-level
wind fields.

Farther north, another zone of supercell potential is evident from
northern MO into IA and western IL late in the day ahead of the
shortwave trough. Here, deep-layer shear vector orientation will be
quite favorable for discrete cells, with hail likely. Any early day
storms may affect warm sector quality, but conditionally, a tornado
will be possible.

...From WI/IL eastward into PA...
Areas of heating and warm advection toward the frontal zone will
result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms erupting over IL,
IN, southern WI, northern OH and into western PA by 21Z. Favorable
deep-layer shear averaging near 40 kt and at least 1500 J/kg MUCAPE
along this zone will favor storms producing hail and locally
damaging gusts. Storm modes may be mixed.

..Jewell.. 04/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150518
SWODY2
SPC AC 150516

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into
parts of New York.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will spread east across the Midwest on
Thursday, becoming oriented from the Lower Great Lakes to the
central/southern Appalachians by Friday morning. At the surface, a
front will sag south/southeast across the Great Lakes. Modest
southwesterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints from the Mid-South into New York/southern New England.
This should be sufficient for weak to moderate destabilization given
modestly steep midlevel lapse rates.

... New York vicinity...

Modest height falls are forecast across the region during the
afternoon and evening within a low-level warm advection regime.
Moderate to strong deep-layer mid/upper flow will overspread the
moistening boundary layer, supporting effective shear magnitudes of
30+ kt. Heating into the mid/upper 70s will lead to steepening
low-level lapse rates, while cool temperatures aloft (near -12 C at
500 mb) will support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. An accompanying
risk of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts is expected.

...Mid-South and Ohio Valley...

Convection posing a risk for marginal hail may be going across parts
of the MO Bootheel vicinity Thursday morning. Persistent warm
advection should allow for airmass recovery by afternoon across this
area and thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop during the
afternoon with a continued risk for isolated hail and strong wind
gusts. Additional isolated convection also develop into the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, though the thermodynamic environment
may be more marginal due to possible morning showers and cloud cover
lingering, limiting destabilization. However, if storms are able to
develop, locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151700
SWODY2
SPC AC 151658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT...

...SUMMARY...
A corridor of strong to severe storms is possible Thursday over much
of central New York into southern Vermont. Isolated strong storms
may extend southwestward into parts of Arkansas and Tennessee.

...Synopsis...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from the OH Valley/Great
Lakes into NY and PA on Thursday, providing increasing large-scale
ascent and wind fields. Southwest of this area, a secondary wave is
forecast to move across MO/AR and to the lower OH Valley by 00Z,
with cooling aloft.

At the surface, low pressure will develop east out of lower MI and
into upstate NY during the afternoon, with strengthening
west/southwest winds maintaining 50s to near 60 F dewpoints across
NY and southwest New England. Farther south, a most air mass will
remain over the lower MS Valley, with 60s F dewpoints from AR into
southeast MO and western TN.

...Northeast...
Storms are likely to form ahead of the upper wave during the early
afternoon across western NY and northwest PA, and perhaps beneath
the upper low over lower MI. The MI activity may contain hail, while
the NY storms develop into a multifaceted threat.

Lengthening hodographs across NY and into southwest New England will
favor cellular storm mode, with a few supercells expected. Hail
appears probable. A few damaging gusts may develop late in the day
if activity can produce outflow and become more linear. A tornado
will be possible as well, especially as cells interact with the warm
advection zone/warm front where low-level shear will be bit
stronger, from the Hudson Valley across VT and perhaps into
southwest NH.

...AR/MO/KY/TN...
Models insist that early day storms will occur from eastern AR into
western TN, but with little severe potential. In the wake of this
activity, lapse rates will steepen as cooling aloft overspreads the
area and surface heating occurs. Ascent will be minimal but warm
advection from the southwest and a possible residual outflow
boundary may instigate additional storms from northern AR into TN
and perhaps far northern MS/AL. A few reports of hail or wind would
be possible.

..Jewell.. 04/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160559
SWODY2
SPC AC 160557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS...MISSOURI...IOWA...ILLINOIS...FAR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large
hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.

...Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...

A potent upper trough from is expected to eject over the Plains and
Upper Midwest on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will
overspread the region early in the forecast period, with 850-700 mb
flow around 40-50 kt common from parts of OK/KS into WI. At the
surface, forecast guidance has trended a bit further north with the
position of a surface low Friday morning. This low is expected to be
located along the MO River near the SD/IA/NE border, and will
develop northeast into northern WI/MI U.P. by late afternoon. A
trailing cold front will push southeast across Upper MS/Mid-MO
Valley as this occur, becoming oriented from central MI to northwest
MO and southeast KS by 00z. Meanwhile, a second low is forecast to
develop over the TX Panhandle/western OK within strong heating near
a dryline extending southwest from western OK into
west-central/western TX. Ahead of these surface features, a
seasonally moist airmass will be in place, or, in the case of the
Upper Midwest, rapidly advect northward during the morning hours.

A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates, supported by cool to cold
temperatures aloft (near -16 C at 500 MB across portions of IA/MN/WI
at 21z, and -14 to -12 C further southwest) will overspread the
moist boundary layer. This will result in strong destabilization,
with MLCAPE around 2500-3500 J/kg expected across the warm sector.
This kinematic and thermodynamic environment will support robust
convective development near the Upper Midwest surface low
southwestward along the cold front into KS by midday. Initial
supercells are possible, especially closer to the surface low in the
Upper Midwest, and near the triple point/dryline in northwest
OK/south-central KS. More rapid upscale growth into a robust
line/LEWP is expected along the cold front from parts of IA into MO
and eastern KS. Given robust instability and very steep lapse rates, significant damaging wind swaths will be possible. Additionally,
large to very large hail will be possible with any discrete
supercells, and possibly within line-embedded supercells. Low-level
wind profiles will also support a aerially extensive tornado risk,
both with QLCS mesovortex circulations, and with discrete
supercells. A corridor of perhaps greater tornado risk/coverage may
develop near the surface low from northeast IA into central WI.
Low-level SRH will be maximized in this area and forecast soundings
indicate large, curved hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km.
Furthermore, mixing ratios near 14 g/kg and very steep lapse rates
should support robust updrafts with low cloud bases. This are may
become a focused corridor for stronger tornadoes.

Linear convection should continue east across the MS River and Lake
Michigan during the evening and overnight hours, with a gradually
waning severe risk into portions of central/southern IL, Lower MI
and IN. Additional convection may develop during the evening and/or
overnight across parts of TX near the dryline, though this scenario
is more conditional. If storms do develop, large will be the main
risk.

..Leitman.. 04/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161743
SWODY2
SPC AC 161741

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected from parts of the
southern Plains to the Middle and Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity
Friday into Friday night. Tornadoes, possibly strong, very large
hail, and swaths of damaging winds will be possible.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move into the central and northern Plains
during the day, strengthening through Friday night as it moves into
upper MS Valley. Continuous height falls will occur across the
entire central to northern Plains region, where mid and upper level temperatures will already be relatively cool.

During the afternoon, low pressure will develop across IA and WI,
with a cold front extending southwestward into southern KS and
northwest OK. A warm front will also lift across IA and into WI
during the day, with an influx of mid 60s F dewpoints. Given the
cool temperatures aloft, this will create a highly unstable air mass
ahead of the cold front. This front will accelerate during the
evening as storms become numerous, and should extend roughly from
Lower MI into central TX by 12Z Saturday.

The combination of steep lapse rates aloft, ample shear, and ample
moisture will support corridors of significant severe storms,
including all modes of severe.

...From IA into WI and northwest IL...
Strong tornado potential is evident Friday afternoon into early
evening, especially from IA into southern WI and northwest IL. While
convective evolution is a bit uncertain, there is good agreement in
a very unstable environment with midlevel lapse rates to 8.5 C/km,
along with 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH ahead of the surface low and
near the warm front. While an eventual squall line may take shape
late in the day, scattered supercells appear likely after about 19Z
ahead of the developing low and as dewpoints rise rapidly. As such,
conditional tornado probabilities have been increased further to
indicate stronger tornado potential.

Cells should eventually consolidate as the front pushed east, with
damaging bowing structures expected, possibly as far east as Lake
MI. The severe risk is expected to persist as far east as IN and
lower MI late evening/overnight as the southerly low-level jet
brings moisture northward. Damaging winds appear possible.

...OK/KS/MO...
A volatile environment will develop near and ahead of the cold front
Friday afternoon, with significant severe hail, wind, and several
tornadoes expected. An impressive combination of deep-layer
shear/wind fields and steep lapse rates aloft will exist, and while
the forcing mechanism will be linear, shear vector orientation and
likely rightward-propagation of the stronger supercells will support
tornadoes and very large damaging hail initially. All this activity
is expected to merge into a linear MCS, with corridors of
destructive winds and continued large hail risk expected over much
of MO and into northern OK through the evening.

..Jewell.. 04/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170526
SWODY2
SPC AC 170525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great
Lakes on Friday. A surface cold front will move from the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. In its wake, high pressure
will build into the Intermountain West and Plains.

Remnant showers/storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period ahead of the cold front. The extensive cloudcover and
potential outflow from Day 1 storms has resulted in considerable
uncertainty for the Saturday forecast. Most 00Z guidance shows
extensive outflow moving across Ohio during the morning. If this
occurs, additional storm development is not anticipated until
farther east across western Pennsylvania and southwest New York. If
these morning storms/outflow are less progressive, some moisture
advection ahead of the cold front is expected to bring somewhat
greater instability. This could result in some stronger storms, and
potentially sufficient instability for some transient supercell
structures.

Some 00Z CAM guidance (NAM/NSSL WRF) depicts low to mid 60s
dewpoints across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Saturday
afternoon. This seems to be the outlier, but if this does occur, a
more substantial severe weather threat, and a greater tornado threat
would exist across western Pennsylvania into southwest New York.
However, only weak instability seems most likely within this zone of
strong shear and therefore, expect damaging wind gusts as the
primary hazard.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171732
SWODY2
SPC AC 171730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley
and central Appalachians. Isolated severe hail is also possible
across parts of central Texas.

...Synopsis...
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward from the upper MS
Valley to the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Saturday. At the same time, a
cold front extending from lower MI south-southwestward into
south-central TX will move east-southeastward across the OH, TN, and
lower MS Valley during the day. Remnant showers and thunderstorms
will be ongoing along the eastward-moving front at the start of the
period, though this lingering/early-morning activity is generally
expected to be sub-severe.

...Upper OH Valley and Central Appalachians...
As the cold front continues eastward into the upper OH Valley and
central Appalachians into the afternoon, diurnal heating amid a
narrow corridor of upper 50s to lower 60s dewpoints will contribute
to marginal surface-based destabilization immediately ahead of the
front. This, combined with around 40-50 kt of effective shear
oriented oblique to the front, should favor a mix of organized
clusters and perhaps a couple supercell structures -- posing a risk
of scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated severe hail.
Additionally, a remnant 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet
will yield modest low-level shear/hodograph curvature, and a tornado
or two will be possible with the more organized storms.

...Central TX...
High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting
elevated thunderstorms evolving behind the cold front during the
morning and early afternoon. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
frontal surface and elongated/straight hodographs (around 50 kt of
effective shear) could lead to isolated severe hail with any
elevated supercells that evolve.

...Lower MS and TN Valleys...
A couple strong storms will also be possible immediately ahead of
the front as it impinges on the lower MS and TN Valleys during the
afternoon, given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear and a weakly
unstable air mass. However, displacement from the deep-layer forcing
for ascent accompanying the trough, and skinny CAPE profiles, limits
confidence in the severe risk here -- precluding probabilities at
this time.

..Weinman.. 04/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180541
SWODY2
SPC AC 180539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level trough will move slowly east from the Great Lakes
to the Northeast on Sunday. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will extend from the Plains to the Midwest and Southeast.
This will help advance the cold front (and richer moisture) into the
Atlantic and the Gulf.

The prevalence of high pressure and a continental, dry airmass
across most of the country will lead to minimal thunderstorm chances
on Sunday. A few isolated thunderstorms could develop along the
front from eastern Georgia to eastern North Carolina before the
front moves offshore. Scattered thunderstorms are possible along the
eastern shore of the Florida Peninsula, but given the weak
instability, strong to severe concern remains minimal.

Finally, thunderstorms that form over the higher terrain in northern
Mexico on Sunday may move into parts of South Texas and the Edwards
Plateau before weakening in the increasingly hostile post-frontal
environment.

..Bentley.. 04/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181724
SWODY2
SPC AC 181723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
An amplified midlevel trough will move eastward from the Great Lakes
into the Northeast on Sunday, while a related cold front moves off
the Eastern Seaboard and the FL Peninsula. Preceding the trough,
large-scale ascent will support isolated/elevated thunderstorms
across coastal New England into the afternoon. Similarly, a couple thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front over coastal NC and
farther south over the central/southern FL Peninsula (aided by an
Atlantic sea breeze), though much of this activity may develop
offshore. Farther west over the lower Great Lakes, lapse rates will
quickly steepen beneath the core of the midlevel trough, and
sufficient (albeit weak) buoyancy will support a couple
thunderstorms -- given increasing ascent in the left-exit region of
a midlevel jet.

Finally, isolated/elevated thunderstorms will be possible within a
post-frontal air mass across southwest TX, where weak warm-air
advection will develop amid modestly steep midlevel lapse rates.

..Weinman.. 04/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190547
SWODY2
SPC AC 190546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel trough will progress from the Northeast off the New
England coast on Monday, while the trailing cold front continues
southward into the Caribbean Sea. In the wake of this system, high
pressure and a relatively dry airmass will limit thunderstorm
potential across much of the CONUS.

... South Florida ...

North of the aforementioned front, diurnal heating of a moist
post-frontal airmass characterized by dewpoints in the mid-60s
should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Weak
buoyancy and a lack of significant large-scale ascent should
preclude any severe threat.

... Southwest into Texas ...

Farther west, a subtle, low-amplitude midlevel wave moving into
South Texas, combined with weak low-level warm advection and modest
moisture return will support a few rounds of isolated thunderstorms
across Southwest Texas into Central Texas.

Additionally, isolated diurnal thunderstorms are possible across the
Southwest as midlevel moisture impinges on the region. This activity
is expected to remain focused over the higher terrain, and given the
weak instability and modest forcing, severe weather is not expected.

..Marsh.. 04/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191722
SWODY2
SPC AC 191720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough within the Northeast will progress offshore on
Monday. A subtle shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will
move into South Texas/middle Texas coast overnight into Tuesday
morning. On the West Coast, a stronger upper trough will into parts
of the Northwest and northern/central California. A surface high
pressure system across much of the east will remain largely in
place. Very modest moisture return is possible into the Rio Grande
Valley and Permian Basin/Trans-Pecos regions.

...South Florida...
Moderate mid-level flow is expected across the Peninsula given the
upper trough to the north. Though mid-level temperatures will be
cooling during the day, persistent northeasterly winds at the
surface will lead to a large down-peninsular component at low
levels. Dewpoints will have a tendency to drop during the same time
frame. This pattern, coupled with poor mid-level lapse rates, should
keep severe potential low.

...Trans-Pecos into Central/South Texas...
With moisture return into the Davis Mountains vicinity, a storm or
two could develop within the terrain. A modest enhancement to
deep-layer shear in association with the subtle perturbation moving
through could allow for a stronger storm. Given how isolated this
activity would be as well as its dependency on sufficient moisture
return, confidence in such a scenario is quite low.

Farther east, warm air advection will increase during the overnight
hours. Elevated buoyancy is expected to increase during this time
frame. Shear will be weaker with northern extent and increasing
southward in closer proximity to the weak shortwave perturbation.
Mid-level lapse rates will be weak as will MUCAPE (less than 750
J/kg). Small hail may occur with the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 04/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200549
SWODY2
SPC AC 200547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the western CONUS, the
south-central CONUS, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday.
Potential for severe weather appears low.

... Synopsis ...

Midlevel ridging will be in place from the eastern Great Basin into
the Plains at the start of the forecast period, while persistent
northwesterly flow aloft continues across the Upper Midwest and Ohio
Valley. Farther west, an upper trough will gradually advanced inland
across California into the Great Basin by the end of the period.

At the surface, a broad area of high pressure centered over the
Southeast and adjacent Atlantic will maintain southerly flow across
the central US. This will promote a gradual moisture recovery across
the central Plains into the southern Great Lakes. A weak frontal
boundary pushing south through portions of the central Plains and
Great Lakes will denote the northern edge of the moisture return.

... Lower Great Lakes ...

Thunderstorm development along the frontal zone may be delayed until
later in the day or evening as moisture slowly returns northward.
While relatively cold temperatures aloft should support steep lapse
rates, the quality and depth of the boundary-layer moisture is
expected to be the biggest unknown. The NAM is the most aggressive
with the depth and quality of the moisture return, and if moisture
quality is close to what is shown in the NAM, enough instability
should materialize to take advantage of the stronger vertical shear
to support a few organized cells capable of gusty winds or small
hail. However, most model guidance is less aggressive with the
quality of the moisture return so no probabilities have been added
at this time.

... South-central US ...

Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast
period. Modest vertical shear and elevated instability may support a
couple strong thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds.
However, overall thunderstorm intensity should wane through much of
the period as upper ridging overspreads the region.

... Western US ...

As the upper trough moves inland, ascent will increase across the
Pacific Northwest, northern California, and portions of the Great
Basin. Within the Central Valley and nearby terrain, pockets of
diurnal heating, combined with cool midlevel temperatures may
support isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon.
Despite this modest instability, weak vertical shear should limit
any organized severe potential.

..Marsh.. 04/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201726
SWODY2
SPC AC 201724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible across the West, portions of the
southern Plains, and the southern Great Lakes on Tuesday. Potential
for severe weather appears low.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging is expected to build into the Plains on Tuesday.
Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will remain across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. In the West, an upper trough will move into
California and the western Great Basin. At the surface, a high
pressure system will persist in the Southeast. Initial moisture
return around the western flank of this anticyclone will occur
through the day. This moisture will interact with a weak boundary
within the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes.

...Midwest/Lower Great Lakes...
Ahead of the weak surface boundary, some increase in low-level
moisture can be expected. Moisture should generally be greater along
the Iowa/Missouri border with diminishing dewpoints towards the
Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Within moderate northwesterly flow
aloft, a subtle shortwave trough is expected to move towards
southern Lake Michigan during the afternoon. Temperatures at 500 mb
of around -18C should promote some convection along the boundary by
late afternoon. Farther west, forcing for ascent will be weaker and
capping will be stronger. The main question in this scenario
continues to be the quantity of moisture return ahead of the
boundary. Guidance does suggest low 50s F are possible, but given
how dry the current airmass across the region is and how late this
initial moisture return will be, confidence in that forecast is low.
The current expectation is that isolated to widely scattered storms
are possible by late afternoon/early evening, particularly near
southern Lake Michigan. These storms may briefly strengthen and be
capable of gusty winds/small hail. Thereafter, nocturnal cooling
should lead to a weakening trend. Development near the Iowa/Missouri
is far more conditional.

...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend into Central Texas...
Convection will be ongoing Tuesday morning in central Texas.
Isolated small hail and gusty winds are possible, but deep-layer
shear will be weakening as the ridge builds into the Plains through
the day. Farther west, a weak dryline is possible into the Big Bend
region. An isolated storm or two could develop. Weak vertical shear
and marginal buoyancy should limit severe potential.

...California Central Valley...
After an initial period of precipitation in the morning, pockets of
surface heating in the afternoon may lead to MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg.
While a stronger storm or two is possible, the severe threat will be
limited by weak deep-layer shear.

..Wendt.. 04/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210554
SWODY2
SPC AC 210553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop
during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday across portions
of the High Plains.

... Synopsis ...

A closed upper low across the western US will devolve into an open
wave as it lifts northeast toward the northern Plains. At the same
time, a surface low will gradually deepen as it moves across
northern Montana east into North Dakota by Thursday morning.

Lee troughing will strengthen during the day with the approach of
the western trough. The surface wind field within this lee trough
will function to sharpen a dryline from the surface low south across
much of the High Plains. To the east of the dryline, strengthening
southerly winds will draw Gulf moisture northward into the
strengthening cyclone. The quality of this moisture return remains a significant source of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm chances
with northward extent.

... Northern High Plains including areas of eastern Montana...

By late afternoon increasing large-scale ascent, driven by modest
height falls, will overspread northern portions of the dryline.
Despite moisture concerns, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
should develop across portions of the dryline during the afternoon.
Large temperature/dewpoint spreads may support strong wind gusts
with the strongest storms.

The best synoptic scale forcing for ascent will move across portions
of eastern Montana during the late afternoon and evening. Should
boundary layer moisture be richer than currently anticipated (e.g.,
closer to 40F than 25F), a threat for marginally severe wind gusts
may materialize. This area will continued to be assessed in
subsequent outlooks for an upgrade to Level 1/Marginal.

... Southern High Plains ...

Midlevel height falls will not be as great here as compared to areas
farther north. However, richer boundary layer moisture and strong
dryline circulations aided by temperatures approaching 90F to the
west of the dryline should support at least isolated thunderstorm
development. Around 40 knots of cloud-layer shear should support at
least a marginal hail risk with any storm that develops.

..Marsh.. 04/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211726
SWODY2
SPC AC 211724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds may develop
during the late afternoon and evening on Wednesday across portions
of the High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A broad trough within parts of the Northwest and Great Basin will
progress eastward through the day Wednesday. The mid-level jet will
round the base of this trough and impact the northern High Plains
during the evening overnight. A secondary mid-level jet will dig
into the Southwest by early Thursday morning. The upper-level ridge
across the Plains will begin to break down and shift eastward. At
the surface, a deep surface low will track along the Montana/Canada
border. Strengthening flow across the Rockies will promote a
moderately strong lee trough. Surface moisture will continue to
advect north and west during the period. Richer moisture will
generally remain within the southern Plains and adjacent High Plains
with less certain moisture quality farther north.

...Western Nebraska...western South Dakota...
With greater large-scale ascent and closer proximity to the surface
low, confidence in storm development is higher in these areas. The
main question will be the degree of moisture return that can occur
through the day. Model guidance still varies widely in this regard.
Dewpoints near 50 F are possible into southwest Nebraska, but this
may occur towards 00Z or later. Farther north, dewpoints in the 40s
F may be the ceiling for late afternoon/early evening. A probable
scenario is that high-based convection develops within the terrain
of eastern Wyoming/western South Dakota and within the surface
trough. Some intensification is possible as this activity encounters
greater surface moisture to the east. Severe wind gusts will be the
main hazard given the steep low-level lapse rates and inverted-v
thermodynamic profiles. Linear structures would be favored in South
Dakota given the deep-layer flow orientation. A supercell or two
could occur in western Nebraska, should storms form.

...Southern High Plains into Western Kansas...
With the synoptic trough lagging to the west, mid-level height falls
will be very weak during the afternoon. The dryline/surface trough
will be the focus for storm development. Temperatures nearing 90 F
behind the dryline appear sufficient for an isolated storm or two to
develop. That said, some guidance does not develop any convection.
Deep-layer shear will be roughly perpendicular to the surface trough
and mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Storms that can develop
will be supercellular. Large hail would be the main concern with
this activity.

...Eastern Montana...
High-based convection is possible in association with the deepening
surface low. Dewpoints will not likely reach 40 F. Gusty outflow
winds are possible, but potential for severe gusts is low.

..Wendt.. 04/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220601
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

... Synopsis ...

A shortwave trough will move northeast along the eastern periphery
of a western US longwave trough. This shortwave will help maintain a
surface cyclone in southern Canada, while a secondary surface low
may develop across southern Minnesota late in the period. A
secondary shortwave will approach the southern Plains late in the
forecast period.

As the shortwave trough lifts northeast, a cold front will
accelerate east across the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the
surface front southerly winds will support mid 50F dewpoints as far
north as northern Minnesota and pockets of 60F dewpoints perhaps as
far north as southern-to-central Minnesota.

... Central and Northern Plains ...

Diurnal heating of the moist airmass ahead of the advancing surface
front will yield an increasingly unstable atmosphere during the
afternoon with the 20260422/00Z HREF showing ensemble mean SBCAPE
values approaching 2000 J/kg as far north as the greater Omaha, NE,
vicinity by 20Z. Interrogation of forecast soundings ahead of the
frontal boundary shows a strong cap stretching from Oklahoma
northward into Nebraska and Iowa. This cap does lift during the day
in response to increasing large-scale ascent from the approaching
trough, but thunderstorm initiation will likely require convergence
along the surface front.

This should occur by mid-afternoon anywhere from northeast Kansas
into southern Minnesota. Initially, deep-layer shear is not
particularly strong across the warm sector, but would still support
a combination of multi-cells and supercells. Given the degree of
instability and steep midlevel lapse rates, large-to-very-large hail
would be possible with any of these initial storms. A tornado or two
would also be possible given some low-level curvature in the
forecast hodographs associated with at least a modest low-level jet.


As the cold front continues to move east into the moist and unstable
airmass, additional thunderstorms should develop along the front,
eventually growing upscale into one or more linear systems and a
transition to a damaging wind threat. Vertical shear should improve
during the late afternoon and evening as the mid-to-upper-level
winds respond to the approach trough, yielding a continued tornado
threat with any persistent discrete cell.

... Oklahoma and Northwest Texas ...

A very unstable airmass will develop across the region to the east
of a dryline across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Forecast
soundings show varying degrees of a cap across Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas. With the strongest large-scale ascent remaining
largely to the north of the area, forcing for ascent will likely
require strong dryline circulations. Given afternoon temperatures in
the 90Fs to the west of the dryline, there is at least some
potential for dryline circulations to break the cap and initiate at
least a couple of storms. Vertical shear profiles will support
supercells capable of very large hail. A highly conditional tornado
threat could develop with any discrete storm that is able to move
off the dryline and into the increasingly moist and unstable
environment to the east.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221724
SWODY2
SPC AC 221722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially over the northern High Plains Thursday
morning is forecast to shift east across the northern Plains into
the upper MS Valley in tandem with a belt of 50-60 kt
south-southwest winds in the mid levels. A secondary, lower-latitude disturbance will advance into western KS and the OK/TX panhandles
late Thursday afternoon into evening, along with a more zonal
mid/upper-level jet streak. At the surface, the primary cyclone
attendant to the northern Plains system is expected to undergo
occlusion over southern into central Manitoba, while a trailing cold
front progresses east through the northern Plains into the upper MS
Valley. A pre-frontal trough or pseudo-dryline will precede the cold
front, extending from western MN through western IA and eastern NE
into central KS by early to mid afternoon. A secondary surface low
is forecast to deepen across portions of southwest KS or northwest
OK Thursday afternoon in response to the approach of the
lower-latitude disturbance mentioned above. A more classic dryline
will extend south from that low through western OK into western
north TX during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

...Upper MS Valley and upper Midwest through the mid/lower MO Valley
into central/eastern KS...

A broad, nocturnal, low-level wind maximum will develop across the
Great Plains tonight (Wed. night), enhancing the poleward flux of an increasingly moist boundary layer beneath a residual EML plume
residing across the same region. The moisture increase beneath a
capping inversion at the base of the EML may result in considerable
cloud cover Thursday afternoon across portions of the warm sector
air mass. Where cloud breaks occur, model soundings indicate the
potential for MLCAPE to approach 1000-1500 J/kg across portions of
southern MN to as high as 2000-3000+ J/kg in central and eastern KS.

By early to mid afternoon, convergence along the pre-frontal
trough/dryline coupled with increasing height falls/forcing for
ascent are expected to support widely scattered thunderstorms from
portions of central and southern MN through eastern NE and western
IA, into at least northeast KS. While the strongest mid/upper-level
wind fields are expected to remain to the immediate west of the
initiating boundary, a corridor of 40-45 kt effective bulk shear
will overlie the western fringe of the warm sector, supporting
organized multicells and supercells as the initial storm mode with
an attendant threat for large to very large hail and a few
tornadoes. Subsequent upscale growth into a broken band of storms is
expected Thursday evening into Thursday night across portions of
eastern MN into western WI, western and central IA, southeast NE,
northeast KS, and northwest MO. Damaging wind potential will
increase with that mode change, with a continued risk for a few
tornadoes.

The most favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability and
vertical wind shear is expected to develop across central into
eastern KS Thursday afternoon into evening. Here, a few intense
supercells capable of all severe-weather hazards appear possible,
and a categorical upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may be required
in subsequent Day 1 outlooks.

...OK into north TX...

Moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) is
expected to develop east of the dryline by late afternoon into early
evening on Thursday. However, strong capping at the base of the EML
casts considerable uncertainty on whether storms can develop. While
the strongest forcing for ascent associated with the secondary
short-wave trough is expected to remain across KS, subtle mid-level
height falls are forecast across northern OK. Otherwise, strong
heating to the west of the dryline and resultant deepening
circulations along it will be the primary mechanism responsible for
any storm development.

On the condition that isolated storms develop and become sustained,
the kinematic environment will support supercells capable of very
large hail and tornadoes. This is especially the case during the
evening hours as low-level shear strengthens in response to the
amplification of the low-level jet.

..Mead.. 04/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230601
SWODY2
SPC AC 230600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scatteed severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible.
Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower
Ohio Valley as well.

... Synopsis ...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and
western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern
states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the
southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by
remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader
cyclonic flow.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into
Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely
tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still
be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the
period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away
from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from afternoon into
the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance
suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40
corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains.
Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and
west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/00Z HREF.


By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a
moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the
boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent
into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest
across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized
multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial
storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind
gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However,
localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a
brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should
support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS
structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening
hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind
threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a
corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may
occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the
east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent,
but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment
could produce large hail.

... Portions of the Ohio Valley ...

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio
in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should
occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level
jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231715
SWODY2
SPC AC 231715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible.
Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower
Ohio Valley as well.

... Synopsis ...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and
western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern
states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the
southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by
remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader
cyclonic flow.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into
Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely
tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still
be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the
period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away
from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from the afternoon
into the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance
suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40
corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains.
Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and
west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/Z HREF.

By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a
moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the
boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent
into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest
across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized
multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial
storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind
gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However,
localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a
brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should
support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS
structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening
hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind
threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a
corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may
occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the
east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent,
but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment
could produce large hail.

... Portions of the Ohio Valley ...

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio
in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should
occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level
jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

..Afwa.. 04/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231752
SWODY2
SPC AC 231715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Issued by 15th OWS Scott Air Force Base IL
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southern
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging
winds will be the main hazards, with a brief tornado also possible.
Isolated strong wind gusts may occur across portions of the lower
Ohio Valley as well.

... Synopsis ...

Broad cyclonic flow will persist across much of the central and
western US as a longwave trough remains anchored over the northern
states. In the absences of stronger large-scale ascent across the
southern US, convective evolution will be driven primarily by
remnant boundaries and subtle perturbations within the broader
cyclonic flow.

... Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley ...

Convection is expected to be ongoing from portions of Oklahoma into
Arkansas and Missouri at the start of the forecast period, largely
tied to a convectively augmented cold front. This activity may still
be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts early in the
period, but should gradually weaken through the morning as the
low-level jet dissipates and the parent shortwave trough moves away
from the region.

The primary severe threat is expected to develop from the afternoon
into the evening along the effective frontal zone and any residual
outflow or differential heating boundaries. Current guidance
suggests the boundary will settle near or south of the I-40
corridor, though some uncertainty in the exact location remains.
Notably, the HRRR is an outlier in maintaining a farther north and
west boundary as compared to other members of the 20260423/Z HREF.

By afternoon, strong heating south of the boundary will support a
moderately to strongly unstable airmass (SBCAPE values in the
2000-3000 J/kg range) from central/east Texas northward toward the
boundary, with instability gradually decreasing with eastward extent
into Mississippi and Alabama. Deep-layer shear will remain modest
across the region (generally 30-35 knots), supporting organized
multicells and occasional transient supercells.

Thunderstorms should develop/intensify from eastern Oklahoma into
Arkansas along one or more of boundaries across the region. Initial
storms may pose a threat for large hail and localized damaging wind
gusts as low-level shear will generally remain weak. However,
localized enhancements along boundaries or any MCV could support a
brief tornado risk.

With time, storm interactions and consolidating outflows should
support upscale growth into one or more clusters or linear MCS
structures. These systems should move east-southeast into northern
Louisiana and central Mississippi through the afternoon and evening
hours. While the modest deep-layer shear may temper the overall wind
threat somewhat, sufficient organization should still support a
corridor of damaging wind gusts.

Farther west into central and eastern Texas, isolated convection may
occur along a dryline as diurnal heating weakens inhibition to the
east. Storm coverage is expected to remain sparse given weak ascent,
but any sustained updrafts in this strongly unstable environment
could produce large hail.

... Portions of the Ohio Valley ...

A separate corridor of thunderstorms may develop during the
afternoon across portions of the eastern Indiana and western Ohio
in the wake of earlier convection. Modest destabilization should
occur with perhaps up to 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Although the low-level
jet will be weakening through the day, residual flow and modest
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized convection capable of
producing damaging wind gusts.

..Afwa.. 04/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240535
SWODY2
SPC AC 240534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
One or two clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms, posing a risk
for large hail and damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of
the southeastern Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
Downstream of an initially amplified, but becoming increasingly
suppressed, blocking ridge, models indicate that the center of a
deep mid-level low now forming over southern Saskatchewan may only
move subtly northward or northwestward through this period. It
appears that the broader cyclonic circulation will continue to
elongate Saturday through Saturday night, with one notable emerging
short wave perturbation accelerating north of the international
border through northwestern Quebec. To the southwest of the
residual mid-level low, a couple of additional emerging
perturbations are forecast to contribute to south-southwestward
digging troughing along and inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.

In response to the latter development, a fairly significant short
wave impulse is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward out of the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, inland of the Pacific coast
through the southern Great Basin and lower Colorado Valley by 12Z
Sunday. Downstream, mid-level heights are forecast to generally
rise with large-scale ridging building across the southern Rockies
through much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Models
continue to suggest that this may be slowed a bit by subtle
mid-level height falls associated with a weak short wave
perturbation progressing east of the southern Rockies, through
portions of Kansas and Oklahoma during the day Saturday.

In lower levels, seasonably moist air, supportive of moderate to
strong potential instability beneath steep mid-level lapse rates,
appears likely to remain confined beneath the larger-scale mid-level
ridging. Initially this will be south of the Red River through the
lower Mississippi Valley, along and south of a convectively enhanced
surface front which may become increasingly diffuse through the day.
Models vary with the extent to which this occurs across and north
of the Red River through the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, but
a dryline is generally forecast to sharpen roughly from the Wichita
Falls TX through Del Rio TX vicinity by late Saturday afternoon,
near the southeastern periphery of broad weak surface troughing.

...Central/Southern Great Plains...
Model disparity concerning the evolution of surface boundaries and boundary-layer moistening/destabilization to the north of the Red
River add uncertainty to this forecast. Stronger mid-level ridging
and capping will remain present to the south of the Red River, as
subtle mid-level height falls overspread parts of Kansas/Oklahoma
through the day.

At some point, it appears that large-scale forcing for ascent aided
by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection will support increasing
thunderstorm development within elevated moisture return and
destabilization. Latest convection allowing guidance suggests
highest probabilities for this to occur may be well to the north and
east of the dryline, across parts of north central Oklahoma by mid
to late afternoon, when it appears that at least elevated
destabilization may support the risk for large hail, perhaps
occasionally in excess of 2 inches in diameter, in the presence of
strong cloud-bearing layer shear.

Even if the near-surface inflow for this activity begins to emanate
from a more unstable boundary-layer, rather modest to weak low-level
hodographs probably will limit tornadic potential. However,
increasing and consolidating convective development could gradually
organize and become capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts
late Saturday afternoon and evening, while tending to propagate
southeastward across eastern Oklahoma and adjacent portions of
Arkansas.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241732
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with a risk for large to very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are possible across parts
of the southeastern Great Plains into the ArkLaTex, primarily
Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to remain nearly stationary
over the Canadian Prairie region on Saturday. This low will continue
to anchor a large-scale mid/upper trough covering much of the
western and central CONUS through the period. A shortwave trough
initially off of the southern CA coast will move east-northeastward
toward the Southwest by Sunday morning. Downstream of this system, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough may emerge from the southern
Rockies and begin to impinge upon a moist and unstable environment
across the south-central Plains by afternoon.

At the surface, a surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across
the TX Panhandle region through the day, with a dryline extending
southward from this low into parts of west-central and southwest TX.
An outflow-influenced surface boundary will initially extend
east-southeast of the low into parts of the Southeast. This boundary
is forecast to move northward as a warm front through the day across
parts of OK/north TX into the ArkLaTex region.

...Southern/central Plains into the ArkLaTex...
Relatively steep lapse rates atop a richly moist boundary layer will
result in moderate to strong destabilization along/east of the
dryline and near/south of the effective warm front. Details of
diurnal storm development and coverage remain unclear, but at least
isolated storm development will be possible near or just to the cool
side of the effective warm front by late afternoon, as the
approaching low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough glances the
stronger instability. Initial storms across eastern KS/OK may be
somewhat elevated, but surface-based convection may eventually
develop near the warm front/dryline intersection and expand in
coverage into the evening.

Initial supercell development will pose a threat of large to very
large hail and localized damaging gusts. Low-level flow/shear will
generally remain modest, but large instability and enhanced SRH near
the surface boundary could result in a localized region of greater
tornado potential. With time, some upscale growth may result in an
organized storm cluster moving southeastward to the ArkLaTex and
potentially the lower MS Valley along the primary instability
gradient. This evolution could be accompanied by increasing
damaging-wind potential, though embedded supercells may continue to
pose a localized hail and tornado threat well into the evening.

Development along the dryline across TX continues to be uncertain,
since this area will be removed from stronger large-scale ascent.
However, strong heating and removal of CINH could result in isolated
supercell development, with an attendant threat of large to very
large hail, and a nonzero tornado and wind risk.

Farther north, a separate area of storm development is possible from central/northern KS into southeast NE. While instability and
deep-layer flow/shear will generally be weaker with northward
extent, cool temperatures aloft and modest midlevel flow could
support a threat for isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts with
the strongest storms during the afternoon and early evening.

...Parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia...
A broad area of weak to moderate instability may develop during the
afternoon from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas/Virginia,
near and to the warm side of a weak surface front. Wind profiles
will be relatively modest, but may support marginally organized
storms. Guidance continues to vary regarding placement of the
primary surface boundary and potential for any MCV development from
late D1/Friday. Low severe probabilities may eventually need to
expanded across parts of the Southeast, once details become better
resolved.

..Dean.. 04/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250536
SWODY2
SPC AC 250534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce
large hail and a couple of strong tornadoes are possible by early
Sunday evening across parts of the central and southern Great
Plains, before one or two organizing clusters of storms spread
toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley with potentially damaging
wind gusts.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that a remnant elongated cyclonic
mid-level circulation will tend to redevelop north-northeastward
through Saskatchewan/Manitoba during this period, within generally
weakening larger-scale troughing extending along an axis inland of
the U.S. Pacific coast through the Hudson Bay vicinity. At the same
time, mid/upper ridging across southern/central Mexico into portions
of the southern Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley appears
likely to maintain considerable strength, as a notable short wave
perturbation accelerates out of the southern Great Basin/lower
Colorado Valley, within southwesterly flow which is likely to
strengthen across the southern Rockies through central Great Plains
late Sunday through Sunday night.

There appears a bit more disparity within guidance concerning when
the stronger mid-level height falls associated with the primary
impulse spread across the Rockies through the eastern
Colorado/western Kansas/southwest Nebraska vicinity of the high
plains. It now appears that it may not be until early evening or
later, but it does appear that this may be preceded by a more subtle perturbation across the same vicinity, perhaps as early as Sunday
morning. The lead wave may be accompanied by one developing surface
low within lee surface troughing across central Nebraska into the
mid Missouri Valley, while the trailing wave supports the eastward
migration of another surface cyclone out of southeastern Colorado
into central Kansas late Sunday through 12Z Monday.

In response to these developments, seasonably moist low-level air,
initially confined to the southern Great Plains, perhaps as far
north as central Oklahoma at the outset of the period, may tend to
advect in a corridor ahead of a sharpening dryline across western
Oklahoma into western Kansas by late afternoon. Downstream, models
suggest that warm advection, at least in lower/mid-levels, will
strengthen and become focused in a corridor across north central
through northeastern Kansas by late Sunday evening, near the nose of
a plume of warm and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air.

...Central/Southern Great Plains...
Latest model output, including convection allowing guidance, has not
offered much more in the way of clarity concerning convective
potential for this period. Among other issues, the plume of warm
elevated mixed-layer air advecting northeastward through the
southern and central Great Plains may prove inhibitive to the
initiation of storms across much of the developing warm sector,
while also contributing to moderate to strong potential instability.
Potential for early day convection across western Kansas and
adjacent portions of the high plains may also impact later day
severe weather potential.

Even so, guidance generally indicates that a cyclonically curved,
50-70+ kt 500 mb jet streak will nose across the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle region by early Sunday evening. This likely will
contribute to strengthening convergence along a sharpening dryline, particularly across portions of western Kansas, where at least a
narrow corridor of moderate boundary-layer destabilization probably
will become supportive of supercell development. The potential for
a couple of strong tornadoes probably will increase as cells
propagate east-northeastward Sunday evening, in the presence of
enlarging clockwise curved hodographs beneath a strengthening
southerly low-level jet (including 40-50+ kt around 850 mb).
Tornadic potential probably will maximize during the mid to late
evening, before convection consolidates and grows upscale into one
or more clusters, in the presence of forcing for ascent aided by
strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection across north central/northeastern Kansas and adjacent portions of the Great
Plains.

..Kerr.. 04/25/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251735
SWODY2
SPC AC 251734

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS...WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms with potential to produce large/very-large hail severe/damaging winds and a couple of strong
tornadoes are possible by early Sunday evening across parts of the
central and southern Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains late Saturday.
A surface low develop in western/central Kansas. A dryline will
drape south and westward into Oklahoma and Texas. A warm front will
be situated within parts of the mid-Missouri/mid-Mississippi
Valleys.

...Central Plains into mid-Missouri Valley...
Uncertainty remains in the exact evolution of convection across the
central Plains and mid-Missouri Valley. While stronger mid-level
ascent is expected this far north, the timing of the shortwave
trough will likely be after 00Z. Outflow from convection on Saturday
will play a role in where severe convection eventually develops. Two
zones are currently evident in model guidance. One will be along
potential outflow near the KS/MO border into southeast NE where a
weak surface low could develop. The triple point and main surface
low in western/central KS will be the other. Some guidance shows
warm advection storms spreading northeastward early Sunday which
would complicate the forecast for the mid-Missouri Valley. There is
modestly higher confidence in storms developing near the main
surface low/triple point. Effective shear will be greater than 50
kt, strong buoyancy of greater than 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, and steep
mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk for large/very-large hail
with initial supercells. The tornado risk will likely be maximized
near the triple point, but how long the greater threat lasts depends
on speed of upscale growth. With time, one or more clusters/linear
segments are expected to move eastward and lead to a greater
severe/damaging wind threat. The southern extent of this potential
remains uncertain as most guidance has suggested this activity will
be farther north, more closely tied to the ejecting shortwave
trough.

...Oklahoma...
The level of severe risk will be highly dependent upon what occurs
Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Outflow from this activity has
the potential to limit destabilization across at least portions of central/eastern Oklahoma. This could potentially leave a fairly
narrow corridor near the dryline where inhibition would be
minimized. That said, the large-scale ascent will be nebulous at
best and overcoming the cap will largely be dependent on strong
heating along the dryline. The nose of the mid-level jet will move
into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma by late afternoon. Locally
stronger convergence along the dryline may be enough to initiate an
isolated storm or two. This scenario remains quite uncertain as
guidance uniformly does not convect along the dryline. Given greater
than 50 kt deep-layer shear perpendicular to the dryline, steep
mid-level lapse rates, and strong low-level shear (especially during
the evening), storms would be capable of all severe hazards --
including very-large hail and a strong tornado -- should they
develop.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
A remnant MCV from convection on Saturday in OK/northeast Texas will
likely move southeastward during the day. Moderate mid,
northwesterly mid-level winds will allow for some continued storm
organization. The main question will be how much destabilization
will occur ahead of this feature. Furthermore, weakening 850 mb
winds will have to overcome by cold pool organization. At least
isolated wind damage and large hail would be possible.

...Northwest Texas into Edwards Plateau/Hill Country...
Storm initiation along the dryline is not certain given the lack of
forcing aloft. However, strong heating could promote isolated
development. Shear would be sufficient for supercells and steep
lapse rates through the middle troposphere would promote a threat
for large/very-large hail as well as severe winds.

..Wendt.. 04/25/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270533
SWODY2
SPC AC 270531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable
across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The evolution of a long-lived organized cluster accompanied by
potentially damaging wind gusts appears possible.

...Discussion...
Latest model output still indicates that the center of a fairly
broad surface cyclone may undergo further deepening while migrating
northeast of the upper Great Lakes region during this period,
particularly as it reaches the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity,
near the southeastern periphery of an evolving mid-level low.
Surrounding this low, it appears that larger-scale mid-level
troughing, encompassing much of interior North America to the east
of the northern Rockies, may make slow further progress toward the
northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard, while perhaps undergoing some
amplification along an axis southward through the upper and middle
Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday night. This may support modest
surface wave development along a stalling cold front across the
southeastern Great Plains through lower Ohio Valley, and contribute
to suppression of mid-level ridging across northern portions of the
eastern Gulf Coast states.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging to the north of a prominent subtropical
high, still centered over southern Mexico, is likely to build across
the southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, downstream of a low
over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern
Pacific. Only a slow eastward progression of this low is forecast,
to the south of mid/upper ridging building northeastward into
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.

...Southeastern Great Plains into Tennessee Valley...
There is continuing spread within the latest model output, but a
consensus of guidance suggests that pre-cold frontal outflow,
generated by convection today through tonight, will remain a notable
feature into and through this period. It appears that the leading
edge of this air mass may curve from parts of the southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley toward the Ark-La-Tex at 12Z Tuesday.
The extent to which this advances southward through the eastern Gulf
Coast states on its eastern flank, while retreating northeastward
through the lower Mississippi Valley on its western flank, remains
unclear. However, it seems probable that it will become a focus for intensifying thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon in
response to boundary-layer destabilization along and to its south,
and forcing for ascent aided by low-level warm advection.

At the same time, a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating
across parts of northeastern Texas through north central Arkansas
may become the focus for stronger convective development, in the
presence of larger CAPE supported by steeper mid-level lapse rates.
More strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air may continue to
inhibit more than isolated thunderstorm initiation farther to
southwest, along the dryline across central Texas into areas
near/south of Del Rio TX.

Strengthening shear with the approach of digging mid-level troughing
on the southern fringe of the westerlies is likely provide support
for a few supercells across the southeastern Great Plains, and
upscale growing and organizing clusters propagating into the lower
Mississippi Valley. There appears a consensus within the model
output that the intersection of this activity with the preceding
outflow boundary may ultimately provide the focus for the most
prominent evolving cluster, which may pose a risk for widespread
strong to severe gusts across parts of Arkansas through the lower
Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday evening.

Too many uncertainties exist to upgrade the categorical severe
threat at this time, but this remains possible in later outlooks for
this period.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260545
SWODY2
SPC AC 260543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
IOWA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN..EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE AND
WESTERN INDIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that the northern periphery of a prominent
subtropical high, centered near the Mexican Gulf coast, may build a
bit further northward through the southern Great Plains and
Gulf Coast states through this period. This is forecast to occur
downstream of a digging mid/upper trough and embedded low across the
southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific, while
broad, larger-scale troughing to its north progresses eastward
through much of the interior of North America.

Near the leading edge of the latter regime, it appears that a
significant short wave perturbation will accelerate northeast of the
lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region,
accompanied by a notable (sub-1000 mb) deepening surface cyclone. A
trailing low may migrate from east central Kansas through eastern
Iowa during the day Monday, trailed by a dryline just ahead of a
cold front, which may gradually overtake the dryline across eastern
Iowa through southwestern Missouri late Monday afternoon into
evening. It appears that this may be preceded by one or two
clusters of storms maintained by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, which may still be ongoing
across northern Missouri/southern Iowa into parts of northern and
central Illinois at the outset of the period, before shifting
eastward into the Ohio Valley during the day.

The impacts of this potential activity on subsequent destabilization
and convective development remains unclear, and a significant source
of lingering forecast uncertainty. However, most guidance continues
to indicate moderate to strong warm sector boundary-layer
destabilization will occur with low-level moisture return and
insolation beneath an initially northeastward advecting plume of
capping elevated mixed-layer air, ahead of the dryline. Substantive destabilization still appears possible to the cool side of an
outflow boundary generated by the early day convection, which may
retreat northward through parts of southeastern Iowa and central
through northern Illinois by late afternoon, as an effective warm
frontal zone to the east of the southern surface low.

...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
Aided by mid/upper forcing for ascent to the poleward side of a 70+
kt southwesterly, cyclonic 500 mb jet streak, it appears that the
triple point low/dryline may become the focus for strongest storm
development by late Monday afternoon across parts of northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Given the
environment, including sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
beneath 40-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, this probably will include
discrete supercells initially, with potential to produce large hail
and strong tornadoes. Gradually, it is probable that this will grow
upscale along the remnant outflow boundary and along the dryline as
it begins to be overtaken by the southward surging cold front, into
the lower Ohio Valley by late Monday evening. As this occurs,
embedded supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for strong
tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing gust fronts
of convective outflow also posing a risk for brief tornadoes and/or
damaging wind gusts.

The extent of the tornadic threat remains a bit unclear, and will
probably be dependent on how long discrete supercells are maintained along/ahead of the dryline. However, depending on how the modifying
initial convective outflow evolves across southeastern Iowa into
central Illinois, this boundary could become a focus for heightened
tornado potential, with a few strong, and particularly damaging,
tornadoes possible. Categorical and severe probabilities could
still be upgraded further in later outlooks for this period.

..Kerr.. 04/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261732
SWODY2
SPC AC 261731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong to severe thunderstorm development appears
probable across the middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys
Monday afternoon through Monday evening, accompanied by potential
for a few strong tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and large hail.

...Discussion...
A potent shortwave will move across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Monday, with strong mid-level flow
over spreading the region. As a result, a surface low will deepen
across the central Plains and move eastward into northern
Missouri/southern Iowa, with attendant cold front shifting south and
east and northward lifting warm front. A dryline will be in place
ahead of the approaching cold front from western Missouri southward
into south into eastern Oklahoma. This will eventually be overtaken
by the cold front.

Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the Monday period,
with a remnant MCS moving across central Missouri and spurious
convection to the north across Iowa. Additional thunderstorm
development in the afternoon will be highly conditional on the track
and maintenance of this morning MCS. Nonetheless, it appears that
severe storms will develop by the afternoon along and ahead of the
cold front and in the vicinity of the lifting warm front with the
primary risks for large to very large hail, tornadoes (a few of
which may be strong), and an eventual evolution to potential for
damaging winds towards the late afternoon/evening.

...Middle Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys...
The morning convection across northern Missouri into Iowa makes for
complex forecast Monday afternoon. Initially, the morning MCS and
spurious convection to the north may pose a low wind/hail risk. Once
this shifts eastward, uncertainty remains in how the air mass will
evolve into the afternoon. Guidance seems to suggest that strong
daytime heating, albeit somewhat filtered through mid-level cloud
debris, will occur with air mass recovery across Missouri into
southern Iowa. The strengthening low-level jet will usher in a plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates and upper 60's dew points.
Confidence is highest in a better corridor of
heating/destabilization across central/southern Missouri into
central Illinois. As such, hail and tornado probabilities were
shifted south and west. Initial supercells in this region will be
capable of large to very large hail (some 2-3+ inches in diameter)
and tornadoes (perhaps some strong).

A more conditional threat exists further north across northern
Missouri into southern Iowa near the lifting warm front. A warm
front will lift northward with reinforcement from remnant outflow
producing a zone of differential heating. Should better heating and
recovery be able to occur in this region, potential for supercells
with large to very large hail (some 2-3 inches in diameter) and
strong tornadoes will be possible.

As the cold front shifts southward, mode will become more mixed and
linear with time, with an increase in the damaging wind risk.
However, line embedded circulations will may continue to pose a risk
for strong tornadoes, with evolving meso-vortices along developing
gust fronts of convective outflow. This will extend into central
Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee into the late
evening.

..Thornton.. 04/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271746
SWODY2
SPC AC 271744

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable
across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Large to very large hail, swaths of damaging wind, and a few
tornadoes are possible.

...Southeastern Great Plains into the Tennessee Valley...
Within broad southwesterly flow aloft, a mid/upper-level shortwave
trough is forecast to move from the south-central Rockies toward the
mid MS Valley on Tuesday. Other low-amplitude vorticity maxima may
move from TX toward the TN Valley and Southeast, to the south of the
primary shortwave trough. These features will impinge upon a
reservoir of strong instability extending from the southern Plains
into the lower MS Valley, resulting in a potentially active severe
weather episode Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

Elevated convection will likely be ongoing across parts of the
region Tuesday morning, which could pose a threat for large hail and
locally gusty winds, especially within the more favorable lapse
rate/buoyancy environment across the southern Plains into the
ArkLaTex. Strong diurnal destabilization will be possible by Tuesday
afternoon, to the east of a dryline across TX, and along and to the
warm side of an outflow-influenced front extending from southeast OK
toward the mid MS Valley. Evolution of storm development remains
uncertain, but initiation will be possible along the dryline/front
and any other outflow boundaries in place by afternoon.

Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg across TX, and 2000 J/kg
as far east as the ArkLaMiss) and favorable deep-layer shear will
support supercell development, with an attendant threat of very
large hail initially. Modestly enhanced low-level flow from east TX
into the ArkLaMiss will also support some tornado potential, with
some conditional risk of a strong tornado with any sustained
supercell. An increase in storm coverage should lead to development
of storm clusters and potentially an MCS that would spread eastward
into the evening, with one or more swaths of damaging wind possible.
Storms should eventually weaken late in the period as they encounter
weaker instability with eastward extent, but the severe threat could
persist through much of the night with any organized storm
structures.

..Dean.. 04/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280529
SWODY2
SPC AC 280527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO
MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from
south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast
vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong
storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the
Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic.

...Discussion...
Models still indicate that mid-level ridging will build inland
across the Canadian Rockies/Pacific Northwest through this period,
but it appears that attempts at a developing embedded high near the
Pacific Northwest coast will become suppressed by a short wave
impulse within the westerlies approaching the British Columbia
coast. Farther south, a mid-level low merging into a belt of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific may
accelerate toward southern California/northern Baja coastal areas,
but models continue to substantively vary concerning this motion.

A downstream subtropical high, initially centered over southern
Mexico, may undergo at least some further southwestward suppression,
but it still may maintain considerable influence as far north as
southern Texas through Texas Gulf coast Wednesday through Wednesday
night. At the same time, in higher latitudes, large-scale troughing encompassing much of north central and northeastern North America is
forecast to continue slowly digging toward the northern/mid Atlantic
Seaboard. A broad embedded cyclonic mid-level circulation may begin
to form near/north of the Great Lakes region.

The confluent mid-level regime across and east of the Rockies will
likely support southeastward development of cool surface ridging
across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, in the wake
of a southeastward advancing cold front. Models generally suggest
that a modest surface low evolving along this front may migrate
from the lower Ohio Valley northeastward through the lower Great
Lakes region, with a modest secondary surface low forming along a
developing warm front to the east of the Blue Ridge by late
Wednesday afternoon into evening, but there is notable spread within
the guidance concerning this evolution.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley into north central Gulf Coast...
Uncertainties abound concerning the convective potential for this
period. The continuing presence of mid-level ridging and warm
elevated mixed-layer air may be inhibitive to more than isolated
sustained thunderstorm development east of the Rio Grande River, to
the south of Del Rio, through much of Deep South Texas. Across the
upper Texas coastal plain through much of the Gulf Coast states,
conglomerate convective outflow from thunderstorm activity today
through tonight may slow destabilization ahead of the southward
advancing cold front, and there is spread concerning where this
outflow may end up by 12Z Wednesday.

Still, subtle short wave perturbations within moderate to strong west-northwesterly mid/upper flow, near/north of the periphery of
the subtropical ridging, may provide support for thunderstorm
initiation with boundary-layer destabilization. Guidance suggests
that this may include at least pockets of moderate CAPE, sufficient
for isolated to widely scattered intense convection which could
evolve into supercells and/or small organized clusters with
potential to produce severe hail and wind.

...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...
Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the
initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and
the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue
Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective
potential for this period. Remnant convective cloud cover and rain overspreading the region early in the day may also impede
destabilization. However, with at least weak to moderate
boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and
forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet
could become conducive to organized severe storm development. This
may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential
for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of
the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.

..Kerr.. 04/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281732
SWODY2
SPC AC 281730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDOR
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO FROM
THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms may impact a corridor from
south of the Texas Big Bend through the north central Gulf Coast
vicinity Wednesday afternoon into evening, with additional strong
storms posing at least some risk for severe weather across the
Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley into parts of the Southeast...
Outflow associated with extensive D1/Tuesday convection is forecast
by most guidance to weaken and become increasingly ill defined near
the northwest/north-central Gulf Coast through the day, with the
trailing primary cold front extending from south-central TX into the
Southeast by afternoon.

Details of convective evolution through the day/evening remain
unclear, but with moderate midlevel flow and deep-layer shear
overspreading residual moderate to strong buoyancy, the environment
will again conditionally favor an organized severe threat through
the day and evening.

Some guidance (both regional/global and CAMs) suggests that a
low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maximum may emerge from northern
Mexico and initiate storm development across parts of the Hill
Country and central TX, during the morning, with at least isolated
development also possible into parts of the ArkLaTex/lower MS Valley
and Southeast, near the cold front and any remnant outflow boundary.

Initial discrete development could pose a threat of isolated large
hail, with a conditional very large hail risk with any robust
supercell. With relatively unidirectional deep-layer westerly flow,
one or more eastward-moving clusters may evolve with time and track
in the vicinity of the cold front, posing a threat of at least
isolated wind damage. Parts of the region may require higher severe probabilities, once mesoscale details come into better focus with
time.

...Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic...
Within a broad large-scale mid/upper-level trough covering much of
the eastern CONUS, a vigorous shortwave trough is forecast to move
from the Midwest to the Mid Atlantic on Wednesday. A surface low
will move from near the upper OH Valley toward the Delmarva region,
as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the central/southern Appalachians into parts of VA/MD and the Carolinas.

Potential for substantial destabilization in the wake of morning
precipitation remains uncertain from parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into the Mid Atlantic. Ascent related to the approaching shortwave
trough and favorable wind profiles could support development of
strong clusters or marginal supercells, if sufficient
destabilization occurs. Some threat for damaging wind, a brief
tornado or two, and perhaps isolated hail could develop, though the
magnitude and coverage of these threats remain too uncertain for a
categorical upgrade at this time. Higher severe probabilities may
eventually be needed, if confidence increases in the development of
sustained supercells and/or organized clusters.

..Dean.. 04/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290454
SWODY2
SPC AC 290452

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE NEAR THE TEXAS
BIG BEND...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms may impact the Rio Grande River vicinity
near the Texas Big Bend late Thursday afternoon and evening, perhaps accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail.

...Discussion...
It still appears that an elongated area of lower mid-level heights
will continue a slow east-southeastward progression across much of
the upper Mississippi Valley through northern Atlantic Seaboard,
with an embedded cyclonic circulation redeveloping southeastward
through the Great Lakes region. In its wake, split westerlies
likely will remain confluent across and east of the Rockies, as a
short wave perturbation emerges from the subtropical eastern
Pacific.

There appears a much better consensus within latest model output
concerning the inland progression of this perturbation, which is now
generally forecast to accelerate across northern Mexico and adjacent
portions of the U.S. Southwest, toward the Texas Big Bend vicinity
Thursday through Thursday night. Downstream short wave ridging is
forecast to gradually shift east of the southern Rockies, across the
southern Great Plains through Gulf Coast, while subtropical ridging
centered across southern Mexico undergoes further suppression.

In lower levels, to the east of the Rockies, cool surface ridging
will be maintained across much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley into Southeast. Most guidance now indicates that
the frontal zone on the leading edge of this air mass will make
slow, but steady, southward progress into and across the Texas Big
Bend and Hill Country, immediate upper Texas/Louisiana coastal
vicinity, and northern Florida.

Forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm
advection, downstream of the approaching subtropical perturbation,
may contribute to multiple rounds of thunderstorm development
above the stable surface-based air across parts of the Permian Basin
and Texas South Plains through much of central Texas by late
Thursday night. Based on latest model output, including Rapid
Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, thermodynamic profiles seem
unlikely to support severe hail. One exception might develop within
moist upslope flow into a more strongly heated environment across
the higher terrain near and south of the Texas Big Bend. Beneath
moderate to strong mid-level flow, the initiation of a couple of
supercells appears possible. However, this activity is expected to
weaken as it acquires less unstable updraft inflow to the east of
the higher terrain.

Otherwise, the front might provide a general focus for widely
scattered thunderstorm activity near the Gulf coast vicinity, while destabilization beneath cool mid-level air across the Great Basin
into southern Rockies supports scattered, mostly diurnal
thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 04/29/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291732
SWODY2
SPC AC 291730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
BIG BEND INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong to marginally severe storms may impact the Big
Bend region into central Texas late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night.

...Synopsis...
Strong mid-level winds will persist along/near a surface front in
central/south Texas. Through the period, a compact shortwave trough
will approach the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend, arriving late Thursday into
Friday morning. A very moist airmass will be in place near/south of
the surface boundary. Isolated to widely scattered strong/marginally
severe storms may occur during the afternoon into the overnight.

...Hill Country/Central Texas...
A very moist airmass (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) near and south of
the surface boundary will be in place. As this airmass interacts
with the terrain in northern Mexico, a couple of strong to severe
storms may move into the Rio Grande Valley region and into the
Edwards Plateau/Hill Country. A less certain scenario will be storms
developing on the boundary more towards parts of central Texas.
Guidance does suggest some potential cloud clearing and surface
heating that could support modest surface-based buoyancy. Forcing
for ascent will be weak during the afternoon and largely depend on
frontal convergence. In either case, strong westerly mid-level flow
and sufficient mid-level lapse rates would support marginally severe
hail with the strongest activity. Additional development could occur
overnight as the upper trough approaches the Big Bend region. These
elevated storms would pose a similar marginal hail threat.

...Big Bend...
During the afternoon, a modest dryline feature will be situated
within the Permian Basin/Big Bend regions. This dryline circulation
is not expected to be overly strong given the cloud cover
anticipated, though downslope warming/drying will still lead to a
sharp moisture gradient. It is possible an isolated storm or two
could develop on this boundary, but confidence is not high given the
shortwave ridging that will be present during the afternoon. There
is higher confidence in storms initiating within the Davis Mountains
and nearby higher terrain in Mexico as the shortwave trough
approaches overnight Thursday. Moist, upslope flow into the region
will increase by mid evening. Isolated to widely scattered supercell
structures are possible, though overall intensity of storms may be
limited by the cooler temperatures by that point in the period.
Marginally severe hail would be the main concern with this activity.
Some guidance does suggest the development of linear structures
progressing eastward toward the Edwards plateau. Potential for wind
gusts with that activity appears low given near-surface stability
evident in forecast soundings.

..Wendt.. 04/29/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300456
SWODY2
SPC AC 300454

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across middle
Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern Louisiana and the western
Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output offers little change concerning the forecast
evolution of the large-scale pattern through this period.
Substantive amplification within the split westerlies emanating from
the mid-latitude Pacific still appears probable Friday through
Friday night, including building ridging at mid-levels along an axis
west of 140W longitude into northwestern British Columbia, and on a larger-scale eastward across the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S.
Rockies. Within the larger-scale ridging, a modest mid-level
trough and developing embedded low are forecast to slowly dig to the
west of the U.S. Pacific coast. At the same time, broad upper
ridging may gradually build across the subtropical eastern Pacific
toward Baja California.

Downstream, a confluent regime will be maintained across
and east of the Rockies, and likely become enhanced at mid-levels
across the southern Great Plains through lower Mississippi Valley,
as short wave troughing digs to the southwest of an elongated area
of lower heights slowly shifting eastward through the
Ontario/Quebec/Great Lakes and Northeast vicinity.

A short wave perturbation reaching the Texas Big Bend vicinity by
12Z Friday probably will undergo shearing as it progresses through
the confluence to the south of the digging trough. However, as a
reinforcing cool surge noses southward to the lee of the southern
Rockies, across and south/southeast of the Texas Big Bend, guidance
suggests that forcing for ascent may remain sufficient to support a
developing wave along a stalled frontal zone, across middle Texas
coastal areas through the eastern Gulf coast vicinity Friday
afternoon through Friday night.

...Middle Texas coastal plain through western Florida Panhandle...
Large-scale forcing for ascent, aided by warm advection along and to

the cool side of the surface front, may support a swath of mostly
weak thunderstorm activity across much of the Gulf into southern
Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night. Forecast soundings
continue to indicate thermodynamic profiles with little potential to
support severe hail and wind, except perhaps in immediate proximity
to the surface front. Warm elevated mixed-layer air, particularly
across parts of Deep South Texas, may tend to inhibit thunderstorm
initiation to the south of the front.

Based on latest model output, severe weather potential for this
period appears a bit more conditional, dependent upon both the
evolution of the surface wave and the degree of destabilization
along the frontal zone, which remain uncertain. However, it still
appears possible that strengthening deep-layer shear and forcing for
ascent near the frontal wave could support isolated supercell
development across the middle Texas coastal plain by Friday
afternoon, across southeastern Louisiana parishes by late Friday
evening, and into the western Florida Panhandle toward 12Z Saturday.

..Kerr.. 04/30/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301711
SWODY2
SPC AC 301709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1209 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF SOUTH
TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorm development is possible across parts of
South Texas and middle Texas coastal areas, parts of southeastern
Louisiana, and the western Florida Panhandle Friday afternoon
through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will persist across much of the U.S. east
of the Continental Divide on Friday. A shortwave trough will dig
through the central Plains into the Southeast through the period.
Within the subtropical jet, another shortwave trough will begin the
day in the Trans-Pecos and move eastward roughly along the Gulf
Coast. These two features will eventually phase by late afternoon
into the evening. The mid-level jet will increase in intensity in
response. At the surface, a stalled boundary will be positioned from
South Texas and eastward along the Gulf Coast. As the southern
stream trough progresses east, a weak frontal low will develop and
perhaps allow some inland advancement of upper 60s/low 70s F
dewpoints.

...South Texas/Middle Texas Coast...
Rich moisture will exist south of the surface boundary. Southward
progression of the boundary will determine how much risk of
surface-based convection there will be. Given the amount of
precipitation north of the front, there may be a tendency for most
storms to be undercut except closer to the coast. With 60+ kts of
effective shear, supercells will be possible despite modest
buoyancy/mid-level lapse rates. Where storms can remain surface
based, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado would be possible. Large
hail could occur even with storms that become slightly elevated.

...Southeast Louisiana into Florida Panhandle...
Severe potential along the central/eastern Gulf coast hinges on the
degree of inland moisture advancement. The expectation is for
low-level warm advection to increase with time and eastward extent.
This would suggest slightly higher confidence of
near-surface/surface-based storms in parts of the Florida Panhandle
to the Apalachicola vicinity. A mix of linear and supercell
structures appears possible. Damaging winds and large hail may occur
with the strongest storms. The tornado threat is more conditional,
but nonzero. This threat would be maximized with any discrete storms
that develop and move inland.

..Wendt.. 04/30/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010501
SWODY2
SPC AC 010500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.

...FL vicinity...

An upper trough over the MS Valley vicinity will pivot east across
the Southeast on Saturday. Strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow
associated with this system will overspread the region. Deep-layer
flow will weaken with southward extent across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon, but 850-500 mb southwesterly flow is forecast
to remain robust across southern GA into northern/central FL for
much of the day. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented
across the NC/SC coastal plain, extending southwestward to near the
FL/GA line and offshore across the north-central Gulf. Ahead of the
front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place.

Convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front
Saturday morning. Current CAMs guidance varies with regard to storm
mode and intensity early in the period, with the 00z HRRR being a
notable outlier showing a small but well organized bowing MCS across
the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. Most of the rest of the
CAMs guidance trends toward thunderstorm clusters. The low-level jet
will be favorable for organized convection, and an organized linear
system is possible, but uncertain. Downstream from early-period
convection, upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will aid in modest destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur MLCAPE may
increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will remain
parallel to the surface boundary, so some potential for undercutting
convection by the front is possible. Nevertheless, given the
strength of deep layer flow and strong vertical shear amid
sufficient instability, severe storms posing a risk for damaging
wind gusts is possible. If any more discrete convection can develop,
isolated hail is also possible. The tornado risk is less certain
given a weakening low-level jet with time, questions regarding storm
mode, and overall uncertainty in low-level destabilization.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011713
SWODY2
SPC AC 011712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will be present across much of the eastern U.S.
on Saturday. The mid-level jet will be intensifying through the
period, primarily north of a surface cold front. South of the cold
front, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place.

...Southern Georgia into central Florida...
Convection will be ongoing early Saturday morning. The intensity of
this early activity is not certain, though thunderstorms will be in
a highly sheared (55-65 kt effective) environment. An initial warm
layer around 700 mb may limit overall intensity before modest
cooling aloft occurs mid/late morning. At least filtered heating is
expected to occur south of the cold front. MLCAPE by the afternoon
of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. With shear parallel to the cold
front, there is potential for the front to undercut some of the
convection. However, one or more organizing linear segments/clusters
could still occur along/south of the boundary. Wind damage would
likely be the primary hazard with this activity. Large hail is still
a possibility, but would be somewhat conditional on a discrete storm
mode. The tornado threat remains less certain. The low-level jet
will be strongest in the morning before lifting north and east
through the day. This would mean diurnal destabilization would be
out of phase with the strongest low-level wind field. While the
overall threat for a tornado or two appears low, there is a narrow
zone in North Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning. Uncertainty in the position of the boundary/low-level thermodynamics
is too high for an increase in tornado probabilities.

..Wendt.. 05/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020502
SWODY2
SPC AC 020501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys...

Moderate deep-layer northwesterly flow will overspread the region as
a series of shortwave impulses migrate through an upper trough
oriented over the Midwest and eastern U.S. Temperatures aloft will
be quite cold (around -20 C at 500 mb), resulting in steep midlevel
lapse rates across the Mid-MS Valley region. At the surface,
boundary layer moisture will remain limited in the wake of a prior
cold frontal passage, resulting in Gulf moisture remaining well
offshore. Most guidance suggests dewpoints in the 50s are possible
along a corridor ahead of a weak surface front. While low-level
moisture will be limited, steep midlevel lapse rates will foster
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Model guidance remains unclear with regard to
convective initiation, but heating into the 70s will allow for an
uncapped environment. While deep-layer flow will mostly remain
unidirectional, speed shear will support supercell wind profiles
with 35+ effective shear magnitudes and elongated hodographs.

While overall storm coverage may remain low, and the risk is
conditional, if storms develop, isolated large hail and locally
strong gusts will be possible during the afternoon and evening.

..Leitman.. 05/02/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021725
SWODY2
SPC AC 021724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A broad cyclone across the Midwest/East will remain in the wake of a
stronger upper trough departing the East Coast early Sunday. An
embedded shortwave trough will move southeastward into the lower
Missouri and mid-Missouri Valleys during the afternoon. At the
surface, weak moisture return is expected on the western flank of
the southeastern surface high. A weak cold front will move into
central Missouri/Illinois and serve as a focus for possible
convective development.

...Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois...
Moisture return continues to be the main point of uncertainty in the
forecast. The typically moist NAM still suggests dewpoints in the
low 50s F is possible. However, current surface/sounding
observational data shows poor moisture quality as far south as
central Texas. Moisture return is forecast to being overnight
Saturday. With only weak low-level flow expected, the pattern simply
does not suggest robust moisture return. It seems more probable that
moisture that does advance northward will be shallow and have a
tendency to mix out during the day. All that said, temperatures
aloft will be rather cold (around -20 C at 500 mb). Even upper 40s F
dewpoints will result in around 1000 to perhaps 1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Modest convergence along the surface front and aid from a shortwave
trough may promote isolated storm development by late
afternoon/early evening. A potent mid-level jet will increase
effective shear to 50-60 kt near the Mississippi River decreasing to
near 40 kt in western Missouri. Large hail is possible with the
strongest storms. Isolated strong/severe winds are also possible
given the well-mixed boundary layer. Storms should weaken relatively
quickly after sunset given the drier boundary layer.

...Northern California/southwest Oregon...
Convection is possible during the afternoon as mid-level
temperatures cool in close proximity to the upper low off the coast.
Filtered surface heating could allow for a few stronger storms to
develop. Small hail and gusty winds are possible. Anvil-level flow
will be quite weak which will likely lead to storms that are only
strong briefly. The overall severe potential appears low.

..Wendt.. 05/02/2026

$$

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