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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2193

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 28 22:21:34 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 282221
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282221=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-290015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2193
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0521 PM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

    Areas affected...parts of southeastern Texas into central and
    southwestern Louisiana

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 634...

    Valid 282221Z - 290015Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 634 continues.

    SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms, including a couple of
    supercells posing risk for severe hail and potential to produce a
    tornado or two, will continue developing southeastward across the
    region through 7-8 PM CDT, before diminishing.

    DISCUSSION...The southeastward advancing cold front appears to be
    rapidly overtaking the preceding narrow corridor of stronger
    instability across the mid/upper Texas coastal plain into the Texas
    Piney Woods. However, model output suggests that boundary-layer
    moisture advection and southeastward spreading mid/upper forcing for
    ascent will support sufficient destabilization to maintain vigorous thunderstorm activity east-southeastward into and through much of
    southwestern and portions of central Louisiana during the next few
    hours.

    This is likely to include continuing generally discrete thunderstorm
    activity. Low-level hodographs are still rather modest to weak, but
    strong deep-layer shear is more than sufficient for supercells
    posing a risk for severe hail, with at least some potential to
    produce a tornado or two into the 00-01Z time frame.

    ..Kerr.. 10/28/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5yBvG1tIJQy9-_gNJZ_RbidfmcWdrxeMQo5ZSMU_xVq3m61iZcr4rHFSywZlMs6tVK0gWnNWO= rTIN-ONOwfg0Fu4LNE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

    LAT...LON 32229389 31519254 30179188 29589343 29409485 30019533
    30669483 31659447 32039419 32229389=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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