ACUS11 KWNS 171917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171916=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-172145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Areas affected...southern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 171916Z - 172145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of locally strong to severe
downbursts through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage across
portions on southern Louisiana, with occasional echo tops to 40-50
kft. Strong daytime heating amid upper 60s dew points has yielded
MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg (MUCAPE >3000 J/kg) across the region.
In addition, 18z observed soundings from LCH and SHV depict a steep
low to mid-level lapse rate plume in place across this region.
Though moderately unstable profiles are in place, deep layer shear
for organization remains weak. This will likely favor pulse type
thunderstorms with potential for locally strong to severe downburst
winds. As this threat is expected to remain localized, a watch is
unlikely.

..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/17/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7_mb_Uxc4DgFvSWVWk2uwuztMmNysvfQt2-LmyVZbhqn3o2dwsd01tHIpAgoWjsTQhC0Qwxwl= fSsueoiUJi-3Yl7t-U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 30519408 30899274 30979122 30369098 29829127 29619199
29589310 29769411 30109438 30519408=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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