ACUS11 KWNS 152133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152133=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-152330-

Mesoscale Discussion 2082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0433 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Areas affected...Much of Wyoming into far western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 152133Z - 152330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few severe gusts may accompany the stronger storm cores
this afternoon into early evening.

DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms have gradually been increasing
in intensity this afternoon. These storms are overspreading a very
dry boundary layer, with RAP forecast soundings showing inverted-v
profiles extending up to 600 mb, resulting in up to 1200 J/kg DCAPE. Furthermore, these storms are embedded in a 500 mb wind maximum,
where 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear are in place. As such,
sustained storms atop a well-mixed boundary layer may produce
isolated severe gusts, especially where deeper cores may materialize
this afternoon into the early evening hours.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 09/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5iFGYKPvuz42A47glKQsR1yrgIsEE4t2rT6aIv9dR0pgA-M57BzJcZfSBux_Uz66xH359z2Ji= EFGErZPvsoAOOv-sbk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 43281021 44960558 45200369 44890291 44320272 43750295
43360342 42900413 42490515 42250619 42130731 42140834
42310928 43281021=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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