• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2029

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Sep 4 00:21:34 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 040021
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040020=20
    KSZ000-040115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2029
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0720 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025

    Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605...

    Valid 040020Z - 040115Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercell capable of large to very large hail will
    continue to move southward.

    DISCUSSION...A supercell that has produced numerous large hail
    reports including hail up to baseball size (2.75"). Recent reports
    of winds 60-70 mph have been reported as well, suggesting potential
    for wind driven hail. It appears this supercell will be sustained
    downstream for the next hour or so, given the favorable environment
    with ample MLCAPE, deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates. Hail 2-3
    inches and gusts 60-70 mph will be possible. A second supercell is
    also tracking southward behind the lead cell and will also be
    capable of large hail and damaging wind.

    ..Thornton.. 09/04/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-gLKmZg-CMDjOr3vE02vypjrJvqemSTQgqQioNtzc5_AsPb-ysy2YIRc5tHFLIVUOqrLkyy9i= hOLnLZGZgniYqLKTFg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37739768 37549759 37359746 37259735 37189712 37179679
    37269652 37529654 37829672 38079687 38369713 38319741
    38309766 38239787 37999779 37739768=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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