ACUS11 KWNS 191831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191831=20
MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-192030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1993
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma into the Ozarks

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191831Z - 192030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon with
scattered thunderstorms. A watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Near a surface boundary and a decaying MCV, scattered thunderstorms have developed within the Ozarks region. Farther
southwest into Oklahoma, convection is slowly developing and should
increase in coverage over the next few hours. Shear is quite weak as
are mid-level lapse rates. Even so, a very moist airmass has fueled
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. With surface temperatures in the 90s to 100 F
in some areas, steep low-level lapse rates will allow for efficient
wet microburst production with the stronger storm cores. A few
isolated strong to marginally severe winds will be possible with an
attendant threat for wind damage.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 08/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6RpYyYW-8YfafTR7N7pZvBT2qNxz1mXdbzxTSnF3Iosxqq6LkgF1jDDc_3GtX1af8jNF4nR89= EVstZ__olO2cZfMdz8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 34389854 34879906 35729861 35799641 36079509 36329390
37429185 37939055 37898971 36848940 34519203 34029442
34019734 34389854=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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