ACUS11 KWNS 200117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200117=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-200215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Areas affected...Central North Carolina into eastern Virginia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526...

Valid 200117Z - 200215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for strong to severe storms will continue to
diminish, but a local severe threat may continue across central
North Carolina through late evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have diminished across eastern portions
of WW 526, and air mass stabilization continues to occur via
expanding convective outflows and nocturnal cooling. Thus, the
potential for any redevelopment over much of the area remains low.=20

The exception is over central NC, where loosely-organized
clusters/line segments continue to move east along an instability
gradient resulting from earlier convective outflow. Here, storm
organization in the presence of MLCAPE of around 1500 J/kg should
prove sufficient for a risk of localized stronger wind gusts for
another couple of hours or so, before gradual nocturnal
cooling/increasing CINH occurs.

..Bunting.. 07/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-WG-9w8pdJEM8OsYcJ5L918kyjKHkaWMfh0tL8P--xecTjjteIZJ-bVuQIbxizTTQMke3hGk7= vk4fzpRMk9XVLVU9fM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...

LAT...LON 35877857 36137766 36977706 38217670 38147587 37817564
35807694 35287769 35147816 35107870 35407896 35727893
35877857=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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