ACUS11 KWNS 120446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120446=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-120645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1653
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...parts of the Texas Panhandle and adjacent east
central New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510...

Valid 120446Z - 120645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 510
continues.

SUMMARY...Stronger thunderstorm development, and the risk for strong
to severe surface gusts, probably will begin to wane as activity
spreads southeastward through 1-2 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Stronger convection within an evolving cluster has been
generally maintaining intensity over the past hour or two, based on observational data, but it has been becoming increasingly displaced
to the cool side of south-southeastward surging convective outflow.=20
This has coincided with strengthening surface pressure rises
(including up to 4-5 mb 2-hourly in 04Z observations at Dalhart and
Tucumcari), and an increase in strong to severe surface gusts.=20
However, this probably will begin to diminish over the next couple
of hours, as convection begin to wane in the presence of increasing
inhibition, associated with boundary-layer cooling, and weakening
forcing for ascent.

..Kerr.. 07/12/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-WS4ysiFpDZ_qJ2IeXc45v4vTcvv4eQRpkItDbwYXZR5AID-FnLSF0M0n-h2DDWvtvfppTnsn= Bbuwu0jpXpWJ9clTcw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34950253 35360190 35890140 34920049 33700177 34140328
34510338 34800299 34950253=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)