ACUS11 KWNS 112348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112347=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-120045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...west central through northeastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507...

Valid 112347Z - 120045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 507
continues.

SUMMARY...A further increase in thunderstorm development and
intensity still appears possible through 8-10 PM CDT, accompanied by
at least some risk for damaging wind gusts. It is not clear that an
additional severe weather watch will be needed, but Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 507 probably will be maintained until current 10
PM CDT scheduled expiration.

DISCUSSION...The most vigorous thunderstorm development, to this
point, has remained well to the north of the region, associated with
forcing for ascent with a lead perturbation within larger-scale weak
mid-level troughing accelerating northeast of the lower Missouri
Valley. While one coincident surface wave, along a low-level
baroclinic zone strengthened by differential surface heating,
migrates into southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois, modestly deep
surface troughing lags to the southwest and is being overtaken by an
initial weak cold front across northwestern Missouri into
northeastern Kansas.=20=20

Within this surface troughing, a seasonably warm and moist
boundary-layer remains characterized by sizable CAPE in the presence
of modestly steep lapse rates, as a trailing mid-level perturbation
digs into the lower Missouri Valley. Although deep-layer shear
becomes more modest to the south/southwest of the Iowa/Missouri
state border, it is still possible that increasing forcing for
ascent could support further upscale growth of ongoing convective
development now northwest of Chillicothe MO into western portions of
the Greater Kansas City vicinity. As this occurs and spreads
eastward during the next few hours, gradual organization is
possible, perhaps accompanied by at least some increase in potential
for strong to severe surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/11/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5NcxOXxweGTph9kF5UYS6I28BlXPOwjAHmokG7s-WryEHjBnDZ-Fx-rUJKuR-0GDSRcHjocXO= MhtlaRloOnUmnEcZTI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON 39849419 40619282 39919159 38409384 38849502 39849419=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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