ACUS11 KWNS 112054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112054=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-112230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...southeast Colorado into eastern New Mexico and the
western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 112054Z - 112230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms developing off the Raton Mesa and along
the stalled front will likely pose a risk for damaging gusts and
isolated hail into this evening.

DISCUSSION...As of 2050 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
showed initial thunderstorms intensifying across the higher terrain
of southern CO and eastern NM. Driven largely by weak upslope flow
and diurnal heating, gradual storm intensification is expected over
the next couple of hours. Warm surface temperatures and adequate
moisture are supporting moderate buoyancy amid mid-level lapse rates
of 7-8 C/km. This should support stronger updrafts as convection
develops off the higher terrain through the remainder of the
afternoon. Vertical shear is not overly strong (30-40 kt), but
sufficient for a few organized storms including supercells or
persistent multi-cell clusters. With time, scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop and spread eastward into the TX/K
Panhandles. Given the degree of buoyancy and potential for
supercells, an initial risk for hail is expected. A deeply mixed
boundary layer and consolidating outflow should also favor a
damaging wind risk, especially with some upscale growth later this
evening.

Lingering inhibition and the limited forcing for ascent suggests the
overall convective evolution may be somewhat slow. CAM guidance
agrees, showing storm organization occurring as storm coverage
increases this evening. However, the environment is expected to
support an increasing severe risk into this evening. Some
uncertainty exists regarding the timing, but a severe thunderstorm
watch appears probable this afternoon/evening.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 07/11/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!51kpbvot4NXst_Q34babFsMATUDKNrh2Dj8kZS9B1AGabDkFUgoLMvkqosCsidgKOuT_Om8-0= GBJLv0nu69zRdKSEb0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37240521 37590458 37750344 36910139 35790127 34630175
34140324 33880396 34250504 37240521=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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