ACUS11 KWNS 111901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111901=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-112030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1643
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...Northeast KS into northern MO and west-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 111901Z - 112030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storm development is possible
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus is deepening this afternoon near a cold front
across extreme northeast KS into northwest MO, and also farther east
into the Kansas City area. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving
across eastern NE/western IA will support scattered storm
development with time along/ahead of the cold front this afternoon.
While deep-layer shear is relatively modest, strong to extreme
buoyancy (MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg) will support vigorous updrafts,
with an initial threat of isolated hail and damaging wind.
Southwesterly 25-35 kt flow in the 850-700 mb layer could eventually
support development of one or more small clusters or bowing
segments, with an increasing threat of damaging wind. Watch
issuance is likely this afternoon in order to cover these threats.

..Dean/Mosier.. 07/11/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8DeRzb0_IPsiwxQQJWMiVinX8Q4Xcr810cuEpUKbzxjby9_RhE_yZc7iR1lZuhDlDiLjeeTyR= mLaI-mp6Ig52JurqAc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39459572 39719574 40089566 40339547 40439500 40089478
40029367 40149179 40139032 39859009 39339010 39149108
38619277 38579341 38359520 38679541 39099561 39459572=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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