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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1642

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 11 18:28:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 111828
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111827=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-112030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1642
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0127 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of MN into eastern SD

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111827Z - 112030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are gradually increasing in coverage early this
    afternoon across west-central MN, in the vicinity of a cold front.
    Additional building cumulus and initial storm development has
    recently been noted along/ahead of the front across north-central
    MN. Additional storm development will be possible along/ahead of the
    front this afternoon as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves
    across southern SK/MB and ND and approaches the region from the
    west.=20

    The strongest mid/upper-level flow associated with the approaching
    shortwave will lag behind the front, resulting in relatively weak
    deep-layer shear along/ahead of the front. This will tend to limit
    storm organization to some extent, but moderate to locally strong
    buoyancy and steepening low-level lapse rates will support a threat
    of isolated hail and damaging gusts with the strongest storms this
    afternoon.

    ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/11/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!53li2tBuULNP06mpxmImWL3FHLIrG9doahsUgUvKtRjyax6Y8cFxbZ2ZaDjkvLCErGQ7M0_r_= 0kokKv-KCHbgGcAgOE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 45389362 44229458 43629557 43259706 43349846 43649861
    43839831 44459720 45259629 45789599 46269561 47619498
    48879501 49259502 49359479 48629224 48319156 46699259
    45389362=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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