ACUS11 KWNS 101920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101920=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-102145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1631
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...north-central into eastern Nebraska...far southeast
South Dakota...western Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 101920Z - 102145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop close to 21Z over
north-central Nebraska, with activity spreading east/southeast
across the Missouri River this evening. A tornado and hail risk may
exist initially, following by a corridor of significant damaging
wind potential.

DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar indicate an arcing line of elevated thunderstorms over northeast NE, spreading into southeast SD and
western IA. This activity is supported by theta-e advection with
southwest flow off the surface, with steep lapse rates aloft.

Behind this activity, temporary subsidence and clearing exist over
eastern NE. While initially cool, this air mass should destabilize
again this evening.

Meanwhile, a large CU field is currently developing over central and north-central NE, near a stationary front. Deep moisture convergence
will persist in this area, with the cap being breached later this
afternoon. Aiding cap removal are hot temperatures just downstream
into northern KS/southern NE, where temperatures are over 100 F.

Veering winds with height, combined with strong instability, will
favor slow-moving supercells at first, with tornado and large hail
risk. With time, a severe MCS is forecast, with increasing damaging
wind potential. Significant wind gusts over 75 mph appear likely.

..Jewell/Mosier.. 07/10/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9tCDGQIzkp7U0lYCtSMdkKTcW6z28Wy3_ZYX-rnvQjN7NDFSpfAuMzA0_FJ-8K2oZTk3DZc8x= OIBXqgYpcqtZ9w5ECs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON 41029794 41229927 41499983 41949999 42110000 42480001
42779985 43059917 43089837 43129680 42879615 42379563
41999555 41449565 41079604 40929644 40979723 41059787
41029794=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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