ACUS11 KWNS 101900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101900=20
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-102100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Northeast New York into Vermont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 101900Z - 102100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of
intensification. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible
through the afternoon, but confidence in thunderstorm coverage
remains low. Watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Weak convection has been percolating across northeast
NY and VT since late morning, but has recently shown some signs of intensification per GOES IR imagery and vertically integrated
liquid/echo top trends. Some degree of intensification is probable
as daytime heating continues for the next several hours and MLCAPE
increases to around 1000 J/kg. Elongated anvils are noted with
deeper convection, which confirms recent forecast soundings that
suggest upper-level winds are around 35-45 knots. However, winds
through much of the CAPE-bearing layer remain near/below 20 knots,
which is confirmed by recent VWP observations. Given the modest
lapse rates/buoyancy, it remains unclear whether updrafts will be
deep enough to sufficiently realize the stronger winds aloft and
take on more organized supercell structures, especially given
nebulous forcing for ascent/weak dynamic mid-level cooling.
Consequently, a few strong/severe storms appear possible, but
confidence in the overall coverage and longevity of severe
convection remains limited. Trends will continue to be monitored,
but watch issuance is currently not anticipated.

..Moore/Mosier.. 07/10/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8YXBDiynRdgdq8wt2gQxPQ78CFtwqDn5IbHReT3xTG6Z4bZQyglHO5RhJn1bmGxP1LIkQpSYJ= ePknxtxNpzIvYg-Rc8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON 45067401 45047151 44547155 44217176 43837204 43517228
43117281 42897327 42787353 42767391 42877430 43127455
43497457 43897442 44217428 44567422 44907417 45067401=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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