ACUS11 KWNS 091707
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091707=20
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-091900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...Southern Virginia into the Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091707Z - 091900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing within the southern Appalachians
will pose a severe wind threat through the early evening hours as
they spread east into southern Virginia and the Carolinas. Watch
issuance is probable as thunderstorm coverage increases.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES/MRMS imagery show the early stages of deep
convection developing along the southern Appalachians from far
southwest VA into western NC. A gradual increase in storm coverage
is anticipated over the next few hours as temperatures continue to
warm into the upper 80s and lingering MLCIN is removed via
boundary-layer heating/mixing. Downstream dewpoints in the mid 70s
are supporting a plume of MLCAPE between 2000-2500 J/kg across the
Carolinas into the Chesapeake Bay region. Convection will likely
intensify as it migrates into this very buoyant environment;
however, displacement from stronger mid-level flow to the north
suggests that storms may move off the higher terrain somewhat
slowly, driven mainly by propagation along convective outflows.
Similar to yesterday, this environment will support strong to severe
downburst winds, but unlike yesterday thunderstorm coverage should
be greater as multiple convective clusters spread east through the
early evening. Watch issuance is expected in the coming hours as
thunderstorm intensity and coverage begin to increase.

..Moore/Mosier.. 07/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_elXu-DRJyXbGE40A-hAEIT7_2XU91_3fmdF5AbEJ8utyoTllRSvqf8BS6pQcdpfdFK-bEITv= qEE8D2EcK4ksjyXfpU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON 34778327 34948345 35258351 35698322 35998246 36368192
37008118 37398070 37437833 37207799 36847798 34657964
34448010 34448082 34718292 34778327=20


=3D =3D =3D
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