ACUS11 KWNS 091531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091530=20
VAZ000-WVZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-091700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1612
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...Portions of extreme northeast North Carolina into
central and eastern West Virginia...western Virginia...and western
Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 091530Z - 091700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms should increase in coverage and intensity through
early afternoon. Damaging gusts should be the main threat, though a
few instances of severe hail are also possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually intensified over the past
couple of hours, with MRMS mosaic radar imagery showing 40 dBZ
echoes already approaching 30 kft. Ahead of the storms, temperatures
have already reached 80 F in spots, with 70 F dewpoints helping to
boost MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg amid rapidly eroding MLCINH.
Furthermore, stronger mid-level southwesterly flow overspreading the
region is contributing to straight hodographs and up to 35 kts of
effective bulk shear. With continued boundary layer destabilization,
multicells and perhaps a transient supercell will be the most likely
storm modes, capable of damaging gusts and perhaps an instance or
two of severe hail.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4PiNRY-m1HW_SA_Y4VMg-dJC0z39YmWx54I659sMIRlQLX4UiGEv4h7g2oB3tOKIWxPeTKJ6M= G_M8n19q5AE75n5w20$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

LAT...LON 36728197 38058184 38728166 38958147 39218119 39358086
39677960 39687898 39677864 39577821 39297804 38827807
38447827 38097917 37578005 36848058 36218106 36148145
36248186 36728197=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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