FOUS11 KWBC 061831
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
231 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025

Valid 00Z Wed May 07 2025 - 00Z Sat May 10 2025


...Central and Southern Rockies...
Days 1-2...

Upper low over northeastern NM this evening will continue eastward
and pull away from the Rockies, allowing any moderate/heavy snow
to taper to light snow into Wednesday. For this evening, the strong
moisture plume from the western Gulf will support snowfall rates
of 1-2"/hr over parts of the CO Rockies into the Sangre de Cristos
before lessening in intensity and becoming lighter Wednesday
morning. For Wednesday itself, troughing will remain over the
central Rockies and a trailing smaller/compact upper low over the
CA/AZ border will act to prolong the rebound in heights, allowing
some light snow to persist over the San Juans tomorrow afternoon.
By tomorrow night into Thursday, heights will rise as will snow
levels, confining only light snow to the highest mountain peaks
above 11,000ft or so.

WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow after 00Z tonight
are >50% above 10,000ft or so. Some snow is possible down to around
7000ft this evening.

The probability of at least 4 inches of snow on day 3 is less than
10 percent.

The probability of significant freezing rain across the CONUS is
less than 10%.


Fracasso


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FOUS11 KWBC 070646
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Valid 12Z Wed May 07 2025 - 12Z Sat May 10 2025


...Central and Southern Rockies...
Day 1...

Closed low over the Central Rockies will finally begin to fill and
lift off to the east today, while a secondary closed mid-level
impulse rotates cyclonically around it, moving over the Four
Corners tonight while dissipating. This evolution will result in
the primary forcing beginning to weaken over CO and NM due to
weaker lapse rates aloft, a lack of height falls, and decreasing
upslope flow. While this will force the most significant
precipitation to wind down quickly after 12Z this morning, the
secondary feature moving into the region will maintain at least
modest ascent and steepened lapse rates into tonight. This will
shift the focus of the heaviest snowfall from the Front Range and
Sangre de Cristos Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, to the San
Juans. Snow levels will remain elevated, around 8000-9000 ft,
keeping the heaviest snow confined to the highest terrain, and WPC probabilities suggest a moderate risk (50%) for at least an
additional 6 inches of snow across the San Juans.


The probability of significant freezing rain across the CONUS is
less than 10%.


Weiss



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FOUS11 KWBC 071814
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 PM EDT Wed May 7 2025

Valid 00Z Thu May 08 2025 - 00Z Sun May 11 2025


...Colorado...
Day 1...

Lingering vorticity on the western side of the departing upper low
will still trigger some light snow over the San Juans this evening
before tapering off tonight/early Thursday. WPC probabilities for
at least an additional 4 inches of snow after 00Z are low (10-40%)
above 11,000ft.

For days 2-3, the probability of at least 4 inches of snow is less
than 10%.

The probability of significant freezing rain across the CONUS is
less than 10%.

Note - this is the last regularly scheduled discussion (QPFHSD)
for the 2024-2025 winter season. Unless a significant winter
weather threat emerges, this discussion will next be updated on or
about September 25, 2025.


Fracasso



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