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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0183

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Mar 15 02:30:56 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 150230
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150230=20
    ARZ000-150430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0183
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0930 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

    Areas affected...South-central Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 150230Z - 150430Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Supercell development across south-central Arkansas
    appears probable in the coming hours as a dryline shifts east. Watch
    issuance will likely be needed in this region to address this
    threat.

    DISCUSSION...KLZK and GOES IR imagery show thunderstorm development
    southward along a dryline from the Hot Spring, AR region southward
    towards Texarkana. 02 UTC upper air analyses suggest that low to
    mid-level winds are not quite as strong compared to northern AR;
    however, a strengthening low-level jet sampled by KLZK and KSHV VWPs
    is supporting 0-1 km SRH on the order of 200-300 m2/s2. Improving
    low-level kinematics combined with slightly better surface
    moisture/MLCAPE is yielding STP values on the order of 2-4, which
    implies a robust tornado environment is in place downstream of the
    developing convection. Discrete to semi-discrete supercells
    migrating into this air mass may be capable of very large hail (1.5
    to 2.0 inches in diameter) and potentially significant (EF-2+)
    tornadoes. Watch issuance will likely be needed in the near term to
    address this potential.

    ..Moore/Mosier.. 03/15/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8PiGnisNMkB_mguzGn1Ap9WLU-oyC-kdOHiaPOm_bSYicxdEPwtKNvGcNzXBYihIjh8pbFAZD= i7FpcZ-h4e0PSI6DrM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

    LAT...LON 33439383 33849363 34489329 34599284 34519185 34259154
    33989151 33689166 33419182 33199205 33089230 33049260
    33049302 33069338 33109362 33179377 33439383=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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