ACUS11 KWNS 130700
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130659=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-130900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Alabama...Southwest Georgia...Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 7...

Valid 130659Z - 130900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 7 continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated tornado threat will likely
persist across parts of southeast Alabama over the next few hours.
Although the threat will move into parts of southwestern Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle, the overall threat is expected to decrease
with time. Weather watch issuance appears unlikely downstream from
the current watch.

DISCUSSION...A subtle mid-level trough is currently analyzed across
eastern Alabama. At the surface, a front is advancing across the
central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, a broken line of
organized storms is located from far southern Alabama extending
northeastward into north-central Georgia. Surface dewpoints along
and ahead of the Alabama portion of the line are in the upper 60s to
near 70 F, which is contributing to MLCAPE in the 500 to 1500 J/kg
range, estimated by the RAP. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP from Fort
Rucker, Alabama has 0-6 km shear near 60 knots with 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity has 450 m2/s2. This environment should
continue to support a wind-damage and isolated tornado threat over
the next few hours. However, as the mid-level trough an the
associated low-level jet moves away from the region, the threat is
expected to gradually decrease in coverage. The line will eventually
affect southwest Georgia and the central Florida Panhandle late
tonight, but the threat is expected to become too isolated for
weather watch issuance.

..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/13/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6CFvokStdk-IFvluqQwoTu1Qb0BBR7yv08Xw6UeWNxLUxzS2Hnri15pg5bfeZwqMOr8PI6_TC= NTPB36HFM9RLb5Vzdo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30678496 30438533 30368580 30428625 30768655 31288660
31928614 32178587 32698532 33038482 33128438 33048389
32888362 32598350 32018361 31348413 30678496=20


=3D =3D =3D
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