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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0084

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Feb 12 08:09:38 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 120809
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120808=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-120915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0084
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0208 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

    Areas affected...Texas Coastal Plain...Western and Central Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 120808Z - 120915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat, with strong wind gusts and hail,
    is expected to develop late tonight into early this morning across
    parts of the Texas Coastal Plain into parts of western and central
    Louisiana.

    DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough will approach the southern
    Plains late tonight. In response, moisture advection will continue
    across the Texas Coastal Plain. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
    front is analyzed from near Laredo northeastward to northwest of
    Victoria to near College Station. The stronger convection is located
    to the west of this boundary. The RAP has MUCAPE varying from around
    500 J/kg in southeast Texas to near 1500 J/kg in south Texas. As
    low-level moisture advection continues overnight, instability will
    gradually increase. Most RAP forecast soundings to the west of the
    front have a low-level temperature inversion, with effective shear
    above the inversion in the 50 to 60 knot range. This could support a
    marginal severe threat with the stronger elevated cores, with hail
    possible. As convective coverage increases, surface-based storms may
    develop near the front. The stronger cells could have marginally
    severe gusts, in addition to hail.

    ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/12/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Gvz8Avbjs8kKrWeecRlQauuG3cVBsb3cvQ8QA5iGyVExe_hfRTRy88lVmgdqtCJrlR9zyEJE= hApg1o8gZRaeoEKvsA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29239601 28519726 28309777 28319806 28439815 28759808
    29459760 30319671 31089569 31789456 32109386 32199334
    32219289 32139262 31899240 31509247 31109280 30819317
    30539368 29989481 29239601=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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