ACUS11 KWNS 312105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312104=20
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-312300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Virginia into the Delmarva Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312104Z - 312300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A developing cluster of thunderstorms may continue to pose
a risk for small hail and perhaps increasing potential for scattered
surface gusts approaching severe limits through 6-7 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...Despite rather limited destabilization (including
mixed-layer CAPE generally on the order of 250 J/kg), forcing for
ascent, near a weak developing low within surface troughing to the
lee of the Blue Ridge, has provided support for a developing
quasi-linear cluster of thunderstorms east-south of the
Charlottesville and Lynchburg vicinities. Shear through the
relatively shallow convective layer is strong and contributing
convective organization, with sufficient low-level moistening and
mid-level cooling to provide support for small to perhaps marginally
severe hail in the stronger updrafts.=20=20

As activity develops east-northeastward with the forcing for ascent
during the next few hours, it is possible that modest boundary-layer temperature and dew point spreads will contribute to sufficient
sub-cloud evaporative cooling and melting to support a gradual
increase in potential for strong surface gusts. Given ambient mean
flow in the lowest 3 km or so above ground level on the order of
35-40 kt, a couple of gusts may approach or briefly exceed severe
limits.

..Kerr/Hart.. 12/31/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9VlZgf3WiSU0A_EwHXLZ0D98OGUPnlHSIkpp_4Ydmgd4QeyaouqBf9AqOCLJeklcH-TrNcRkU= a3SwVnKdAPXeuSpc1w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37657834 38987668 38817532 37397668 36687753 36917872
37657834=20


=3D =3D =3D
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