ACUS11 KWNS 290059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290059=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-290230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2308
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2024

Areas affected...Central/Northern Alabama into extreme southern
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 290059Z - 290230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be warranted later this evening
from central Alabama, northward, possibly into extreme southern
Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...LLJ continues to strengthen across MS into middle TN
early this evening. Low-level warm advection is intense ahead of the
primary squall line, and this is primarily responsible for scattered
convection that is evolving along the MS/AL border. While the lead warm-advection storms are likely a bit elevated, surface dew points
have risen into the lower 60s as far north as Jackson TN. With time
lower 60s dew points will surge across the remainder of northern AL.
While surface-based buoyancy will remain a bit weak across this
region, intense shear will contribute to the longevity of upstream
squall line, along with scattered warm advection storms.

New tornado watch is likely warranted downstream.

..Darrow/Gleason.. 12/29/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6oxdAukZc26i5e-piyeQlwl-GBUm4YiAqqn0mgpamiyJHosmF0HjksEoJr75m59oV1bDHyPYM= Ro9qIskzaIV_eXhirc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 32428817 35118787 34898591 32308630 32428817=20


=3D =3D =3D
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