ACUS11 KWNS 301805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301805=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-302000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2162
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into
southern Iowa and northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 301805Z - 302000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An organizing line of thunderstorms may pose a severe wind
threat through late afternoon as convection spreads northeast into
northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Trends will be monitored, and
watch issuance may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms
across northeast KS/southeast NE has undergone gradual organization
with a consolidated outflow boundary becoming evident in regional
velocity imagery. Additionally, IR cloud top temperatures have been
steadily cooling as the line has become more organized, and measured
wind gusts of 59 and 69 mph were recently reported across northeast
KS, which point to an overall intensification trend. Gradual
destabilization is ongoing downstream from this developing line
across northern MO into southern IA as temperatures climb into the
70s with low 60s dewpoints. Persistent southerly flow combined with
muted daytime heating should maintain this trend (although overall
buoyancy should remain quite limited - around 500 J/kg MLCAPE).
Regardless, 40-50 knot deep-layer wind shear vectors are oriented
largely orthogonal to the line, which should favor line maintenance
and forward propagation along the surface cold front with an
attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. The limited buoyancy and southeastward progression of the front cast uncertainty into how
intense convection may be as it migrates east, but trends are being
monitored and watch issuance is possible if a robust/widespread
severe threat materializes.

..Moore/Gleason.. 10/30/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9jvJLCHDKumWoNmyUAzN2-sZFmPZsxvOFg-oVXxan0FxWnNlICZfHAzjLxSYpGCU4ht5QKi-W= aj3egAbeniBv6iJIPU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 42249224 41849196 41359183 40839195 40529205 40139222
39049612 39009647 39229660 39569651 40419623 40739606
41059580 42769325 42759286 42539247 42249224=20


=3D =3D =3D
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