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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2128

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Sep 30 17:24:36 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 301724
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301724=20
    NCZ000-301930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2128
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

    Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 301724Z - 301930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
    early evening across eastern North Carolina. This activity should
    mostly be sub-severe, but sporadic strong gusts 45-60 mph and
    perhaps a brief spin-up or two will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage over the next
    couple of hours in the vicinity of a surface boundary draped across
    eastern NC. Temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s F amid
    dewpoints in the low 70s F are contributing to modest MLCAPE across
    the region. Poor midlevel lapse rates should largely limit updraft
    intensity. However, pockets of steeper low-level lapse rates and
    moderate vertical shear should allow for transient organized cells
    capable of producing gusty winds. Vertically veering low-level winds
    amid locally enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the surface
    boundary will be responsible for somewhat enlarged, curved
    hodographs. Ongoing convection has shown some signs of weak
    rotation, and this should continue through the afternoon. Given the
    moist boundary-layer, a brief spin-up or two could occur. The
    overall environment is expected to remain marginal, and any
    stronger/organized convection will be sporadic/transient, precluding
    watch issuance.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 09/30/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4lybzmX36LUGAcIedmVJq94iQ8WngrQ6NCRgoMKPrpst0wQA9H5aEPFC5j6uWnLgOM90YvM3p= dDvjJ_DdCwuOEw3xbo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 34407763 35047917 35367948 35987920 36327771 36257675
    35787646 34797663 34407763=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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