AWUS01 KWNH 172031
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-180130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1030
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Areas affected...Piedmont to Southern Blue Ridge

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 172027Z - 180130Z

SUMMARY...East to West training and efficient rainfall rates up to
2-3"/hr in a band developing over an occluded front over the
Piedmont of northern North Carolina will continue to develop and
shift across portions of the southern Blue Ridge near the NC/VA
border into this evening. Localized flash flooding/rapid
inundation flooding in this narrow corridor is likely.

DISCUSSION...Convection has reinvigorated in broad convergence
along/north of an occluded front over the NC Piedmont this
afternoon from around the Raleigh-Durham Triangle west through the
southern Blue Ridge near the NC/VA border. Dewpoints in the low
70s with sufficient instability (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) along the
occluded front are fueling stronger updrafts and the influx of
tropical moisture is allowing redevelopment. PW of 1.6 to 1.8" are
1.5 sigma from normal support 2-2.5"/hr rain rates that may
locally peak at 3"/hr as seen from KFCX over Stokes Co NC,
particularly in areas of upslope with the steep eastern side of
the Blue Ridge (near and south of Fancy Gap) in the area of
concern.=20

Slow motion to the occluded low/front will support west to east
training over the next few hours. This may result in 3-5"
localized totals over the NC Piedmont and especially along the
Blue Ridge. Given that around an inch of rain fall in advance of
this activity over the past day, FFG is generally around 1.5"/hr.
Recent HRRR runs have picked up on this activity and features
splotches around 2" through 02Z. However, given the sufficient
instability, slow motion, and heavy rates observed, flash flooding
is considered likely.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4iXPljgjvgcyR0FGICswSwmsRvLrVzERXNg7vvedUxHvCrMPZI7HFFuuxvlxEs1xhvrn= P_RSa6bp75Iq4qYJuvQbN00$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36938152 36838049 36647977 36337900 36057852=20
35827844 35757878 36218049 36398181=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 180906
FFGMPD
MTZ000-181505-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1032
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Areas affected...Central MT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 180905Z - 181505Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall is expected to become more concentrated
going through dawn and the early morning hours across portions of
central MT. Generally this setup will favor an areal flood threat,
but around any burn scar locations, there will be a more enhanced
runoff concern with potential for localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A deepening upper-level trough and associated area of
low pressure lifting up across the northern High Plains will be
driving a rather impressive heavy rainfall event beginning early
this morning across central MT. Facilitating this will be the
evolution of a well-defined TROWAL working in tandem with an
increasingly focused area of deep layer frontogenesis along with a
strong mid-level deformation zone. This should yield enhanced
forcing to help concentrate the heavy rainfall threat in time
which will also include an increase in rainfall rates.

Gradually the heavy rainfall axis should tend to become oriented
in a general south-southwest to north-northeast fashion around the
northwest flank of the deepening 500/700 mb mid-level low center
and where frontogenetical forcing will be the strongest. However,
there is already a fair amount of instability attempting to wrap
westward around the north side of the deepening low, and there
will likely be a corridor of elevated convective elements that
will help drive locally heavier rainfall rates early this morning.

The 00Z HREF guidance and recent runs of the HRRR suggest as much
as 2 to 4+ inches of rain may fall through the early morning hours
(15Z/9AM MDT), with some occasional rainfall rates that may reach
upwards of 0.75" to 1"/hour with some of the stronger convective
elements that materialize.

These rains are expected to gradually drive an areal flood threat,
which may also include a threat for localized flash flooding
around any burn scars that receive some of these heavier rainfall
rates.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-947VJ_LSEJIjrePRyZbbUk6grEIFxwzYOkTkMNeR1rw6NGCDbxj65jGw8U4-F2HNjW3= ZmFrWMNY7Gj3h8CUBy40ytk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 49270843 48780760 47520767 46370826 45740926=20
45751071 46221151 47041177 47821154 48601088=20
49220976=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191834
FFGMPD
FLZ000-200000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1033
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
234 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Areas affected...Southeast Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191833Z - 200000Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms will expand across
Southern Florida through the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr
are likely, which could result in 2-4" of rain with locally higher
amounts. This may result in flash flooding, primarily within urban
areas.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon depicts a
slow increase in coverage of reflectivity across the southern and
central portions of the Florida Peninsula. This coverage is
increasing thanks to rapid destabilization characterized by 3-hr
MLCAPE change as high as +1000 J/kg according to the SPC RAP
analysis, in the presence of PWs around 2.1 inches, or about the
90th percentile for the date. Into these impressive
thermodynamics, ascent is occurring in the vicinity of a weakening
surface boundary draped from near Cape Canaveral to Port
Charlotte, with additional lift provided through a weak shortwave
lifting eastward near the Everglades and a sharpening sea breeze
boundary along the Gold Coast. Storms which have developed so far
have been pulse thanks to weak shear, but have contained at least
brief rainfall rates estimated by KAMX to be as high as 2.5"/hr.

There is good agreement among the various high-res members that
the coverage of convection will continue to expand the next few
hours as instability maximizes and the different forcing
mechanisms continue to impinge on the area. Although bulk shear
will remain weak to limit much organization, widespread cell
development, especially as the shortwave lifts northeast, should
result in numerous outflow boundaries, suggesting disorganized
clusters through storm mergers and boundary interactions. With the
anomalous PWs in place, this should result in rainfall rates that
have a 20-40% chance of exceeding 2"/hr according to the HREF,
with short-duration rainfall rates potentially reaching 4"/hr as
suggested by HRRR 15-min rainfall reaching 1" in some areas.

Mean 850-300mb wind speeds are expected to remain weak at just
5-10 kts, and Corfidi vectors collapse to 5 kts or less into the
evening. This indicates slow and chaotic cell motions, especially
during collisions/mergers, to lengthen residence times of these
heavy rain rates. The most likely location for any persistent
rainfall rates will be along the westward advancing sea breeze
however, as anti-parallel mean flow to this boundary should result
in regeneration of cells from west to east. This could create
rainfall amounts of 2-4", with locally higher amounts possible
across the urban Gold Coast. This will create a 40-60% chance of
exceeding FFG according to the HREF, and if these intense rates
linger across any urban areas this afternoon, instances of flash
flooding could result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!76iX0VNVa06d1Trrxj3E7GPWu4TM7_qLJln1pobkKeulQykaSrLTMQMZjeaeS3JM2_dl= cSpBPKRFnSG6RyM8_r_5fFg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27478032 27178010 26928001 26498001 26128003=20
25768013 25438027 25308036 25408051 25768074=20
26178092 26638083 26888062 27308073 27418058=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192229
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-200428-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1034
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
628 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern/central Minnesota and
Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192228Z - 200428Z

Summary...Isolated/localized flash flood potential exists through
the early afternoon as a complex of thunderstorms produce heavy
rainfall across the discussion area.

Discussion...Over the past 1-2 hours, progressive convection has
increased in coverage and evolved into a more organized/focused
area of cells and linear segments generally extending from near
LaCrosse to Owatonna (along I-90/US 14). These storms were in a
moist, unstable warm sector, with 1.5 inch PW values and ~2000
J/kg MLCAPE values supporting robust updrafts and spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates. The storms were embedded in fairly strong
flow aloft (resulting in 40-kt storm motions), but were oriented
favorably for training especially along the aforementioned I-90/US
14 corridor. As cells continue to mature in this corridor (while
migrating east-northeastward into Wisconsin), the expectation is
that a few areas of rain rates approaching 2 inches/hr could
materialize and cause isolated/localized flash flood issues
through at least 03Z tonight.

The complex will produce these rain rates atop areas of ground
conditions that exhibit slightly more sensitivity with
northeastward extent. Soils are more moist in central Wisconsin,
and FFGs are slightly lower there (1.5 inch/hr thresholds)
compared to the remainder of the discussion area (closer to 2
inches/hr). The overall threat of flash flooding is a bit
conditional on heavier rain rates materializing on sensitive
soils. This threat should persist through the 03-04Z timeframe.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Sf-oiCjID2ImB73v7MUfwc0W7H1Uh93se50o9CyUswnxtmCO7CEJrCyCYYk-PBYJCSg= AMwPJST6PC2e-qCmb0C-lwY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 45619071 45328955 44448918 43868942 43489096=20
43559310 43909375 45119316 45459238=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192303
FFGMPD
CAZ000-200502-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1035
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
703 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Areas affected...a small part of southwestern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192302Z - 200502Z

Summary...A few slow-moving thunderstorms have developed along
coastal ranges north of Santa Barbara. Some of these downpours
were falling on sensitive areas from burn scars, potentially
promoting excessive runoff. At least a few hours of locally
enhanced flash flood potential is expected.

Discussion...Abundant sunshine/destabilization beneath a cold
upper trough (centered near 34.8N, -121.3W) has fostered scattered
thunderstorm development near San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county
coastal ranges this afternoon. These storms are very slow moving
due to weak mid/upper flow beneath the trough. -17C temperatures
at 500 hPa was promoting areas of 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE in vicinity
of the storms. Additionally, despite modest PW values (around 0.8
inch), easterly low-level flow was promoting focused
upslope/orogarphic lift against the coastal ranges to promote
persistent updrafts and slow-moving downpours. Areas of 0.25-0.5
inch/hr rain rates have been estimated per MRMS so far, with areas
of rainfall occurring close to sensitive burn scars across the
discussion area.

Heavy rainfall/flash flood potential will exist in portions of the
discussion area through/beyond 05Z per recent model guidance/CAMs.
The persistence of this heavy rainfall regime is tied to expected
slow movement of the mid/upper low over the area. Isolated areas
of 1-1.5 inches are possible in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!52COZxdYxd4h-Qpe2pTYhqnVewRUkqt1LjyxEu_8pWBzcH7clVZTtACr5sCtsIqLn06g= vsNXx0ITaPhT_8ArmESHqMY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...

ATTN...RFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36232039 36071969 35431895 34861847 34621837=20
34441887 34681960 35212047 36122109=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 201944
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-210130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1036
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Areas affected...Southern CA...Far Southern NV....Far Northwest
AZ...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201945Z - 210130Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, back-building cells with rates of 1"/hr may
pose localized 1-1.5" totals and possible flash flooding
conditions.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W and Regional RADAR mosaic have started to
depict increasing convective activity in both coverage and
vertical depth with peak heating of the day. The highly
anomalous, over 3.5 standard anomaly units from climatology, core
of the closed low is bottoming out across SW California with
vorticity center at the southern base; this is allowing for an elongation/stretching of the mid-level deformation zone to extend
across SW to NE San Bernadino county with increased deep layer
convergence. Given steepening lapse rates with cold air advection
aloft, surface heating into the 80s is starting to support surface
based CAPE values from 500-1000 J/kg to develop over the Southern
California Deserts toward the Colorado River Valley near S Nevada.
While deep layer moisture is a bit limited with only Tds in the
upper 40s, low 50s and total PWat values in the .75 to 1" range.=20
The convergence within the band and orographic ascent confluent
across the San Bernadino/Little Bernadino/San Jacinto Ranges
supports stronger vertical development and sufficient moisture
flux to support .5-1"/hr rates.=20

Limited cell motions given proximity to the closed low/deformation
zone will allow for very slow/stationary motion with upstream redevelopment/backbuilding along the deformation band across NE
CA. Propagation may also allow cells along the mountain ridges
into the Cochella Valley with time. This may allow for spotty
.75-1" totals with an isolated 1.5" total remains possible. Given
naturally low FFG values less than these hourly rates and
potential; an isolated flash flooding incident or two is
considered possible across the area through the late
afternoon/evening hours.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-GqRMhYZHk0M1T6xycX3xsEm8BRojKKapxGLzUDkw1h2W0EWZUrSFVO62--GscVb0taT= IqEaGraJfLMEU3T1ND87DHw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36051537 35651447 35091429 34421518 33621507=20
33231522 33321587 32881615 32921657 33461673=20
33991720 34191765 35011753 35581699 36001605=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211628
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-212230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1037
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1227 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...High Plains of New Mexico into the Panhandles of
Texas and Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211630Z - 212230Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage
through the afternoon while intensifying to feature rainfall rates
nearing 1"/hr. Although storms will generally be fast moving,
repeating rounds could result in 1-3" of rainfall and instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E WV imagery shows an anomalously deep upper
low moving over northern AZ with impressive downstream lift and
moisture advecting into the southern High Plains of NM. Within
this moisture plume, an area of moderate stratiform rain has
lifted towards the TX Panhandle, while in its wake secondary
convective development is gradually occurring as reflected by
increasing glaciation in deepening cells noted via the day-cloud
phase RGB. Rainfall from the morning precipitation has been as
much as 0.5 inches measured by local mesonets, wetting the soils
ahead of what should be increasing convective activity as PWs
surge to 1.25-1.5 inches, and SBCAPE rises to 1000-2000 J/kg.

As thermodynamics intensify through the aftn, forcing for ascent
is also likely to become more impressive. The potent closed low
and associated trough to the west will gradually push east,
driving intense downstream divergence coincident with increasing
upper diffluence over the southern High Plains. At the same time, unidirectional low-level southerly flow will begin to
isentropically ascend the southward advancing cold front, and the
overlap of these forcing mechanisms into the elevated
PW/instability will result in widespread convective development as
suggested by high-res simulated reflectivity. The HREF
neighborhood probabilities indicate that rainfall rates have a
20-40% chance of exceeding 1"/hr in the deeper convection, with
some storm organization through 40-50 kts of bulk shear helping to
enhance and lengthen the duration of these rain rates in some
areas. Although 0-6km mean winds will remain around 30 kts,
suggesting progressive cell motions, aligned Corfidi vectors
indicate a strong likelihood for repeating cells which could
produce 1-3" of rainfall in some areas.

7-day rainfall for portions of northeast NM into the Panhandles of
TX and OK has been as much as 400% of normal, leading to locally
saturated 0-40cm soil moisture above the 95th percentile. While
the progressive nature of these heavy rain rates should somewhat
limit the flash flood potential this afternoon, any training or
repeated rounds could cause impacts, especially atop the most
saturated soils or across urban areas, sensitive terrain features,
and burn scars.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5HkMDdsS2VTEbUgjFSqJPkVJAUTuD8un0vtvI72lMBBT0bDHOEtUlvwXSqyzoKryFZNR= XxBMTu1dJgswVlcXXG1QI3M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...LUB...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37220299 37090182 36810118 36080098 35610122=20
34730197 33830305 33340409 33480503 34320544=20
35280538 35370537 36400491 36940409=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 212257
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-220400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1038
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
656 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...southern CO into northern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212253Z - 220400Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northern NM into southern CO through 04Z due to the
potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms with brief
training. Rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1 inch in 30-60 minutes will be
possible along with localized totals of 1-2 inches.

Discussion...GOES East water vapor imagery showed a closed low
over northeastern AZ at 2230Z, tracking toward the ENE. Several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms have developed out ahead of
the closed low within a diffluent and divergent flow pattern
aloft. SPC mesoanalysis data from 22Z showed MLCAPE ranged between
500-1000 J/kg across northern NM but was less than 500 J/kg over
southern CO. At the surface, an easterly/upslope component to the
flow was present to the north of a cold front and outflow boundary
where anomalous precipitable water values remained but were
beginning to be pushed east ahead of the closed low.

While instability values are likely near their max given the time
of day, multiple rounds of thunderstorms will remain possible from
northeastern NM into southern CO as the closed low continues east,
each round carrying the potential for short term training with
possible rainfall rates as high as 0.5 to 1 inch in 30-60 minutes.
The multiple rounds could contribute to an additional 1-2 inches
of rain by 04Z, though these higher totals are likely to remain
highly localized. These storms will pose a localized flash flood
threat to the region, mainly in/near the Sangre De Cristo
Mountains and westward into adjacent terrain of north-central NM
and mainly across sensitive burn scar locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-gAXF5fLBb9W6u_wUBwsLCkN6rVzUtX12lETvp8OelxZ2uaMZJ4CNuCzgzjF4RATMt0e= OF4_keESzFsHO3WG5kzWMkE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...GJT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38590488 38460454 37300452 36820409 36310360=20
35520376 35140487 35120532 35290573 35540591=20
35790606 35900638 36050671 36320683 36600683=20
36950663 37170628 37410576 37650552 37840541=20
38120542 38500520=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 212359
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-220555-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1039
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
758 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into adjacent eastern NM/western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212357Z - 220555Z

SUMMARY... Repeating and training of cells are expected to pose a
threat for flash flooding from the TX Panhandle into adjacent
eastern NM/western OK through 06Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and
totals of 2-4 inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...2330Z radar imagery showed a small cluster of
thunderstorms advancing through the western TX Panhandle, with
more widely scattered coverage extending westward into eastern NM.
These cells were forming out ahead of a potent mid-level trough
over the Four Corners region, which was advancing toward the ENE,
with favorable shear for organized cells in place over the High
Plains. While most cells were moving toward the NE at 25-35 kt,
some deviant rightward motion of organized cells has been observed
and instances of training have supported MRMS-derived rainfall
rates of about 1-2 in/hr. Surface observations showed an effective
cold front (outflow boundary enhancement) extended southwestward
through northwestern OK into the TX Panhandle, and then
west-northwestward into NM. A pool of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE
was estimated via the 23Z SPC mesoanalysis from just south of AMA
into eastern NM along with anomalous precipitable water values
that ranged from 1.3 to 1.7 inches.

A strengthening low level jet is forecast with 25 to 35+ kt
through 06Z at 850 mb, which will act to overrun the southward
sinking effective cold front. Moisture pooling and elevated
instability of up to 1500 J/kg is forecast by the RAP to focus
over the TX Panhandle north of the boundary, with weaker values of
up to 500 into western OK. After the initial round of
thunderstorms advances east from the western TX Panhandle,
subsequent rounds are anticipated as the low level jet ramps up
overnight, leading to instances of repeating and training due to
the similar boundary orientation and anticipated storm motions.
Rainfall rates should generally fall in the 1-2 in/hr range and
total rainfall of 2-4 inches through 06Z may lead to some areas of
flash flooding, though dry antecedent conditions may limit flash
flooding to urban areas or otherwise flashy locations across the
region.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6NGCwGcGTbj2wvEqWSZJpXOoLKxLgDO4P_yTFrGAwbOdOowl_mW55bGtHCsHmZOqWnFv= k6aBut3MHp198D0QWxYZ5n8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36240090 36210007 35829981 35149991 34370074=20
33860247 33950309 34330322 34830311 35300282=20
35870192=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220155
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-220700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1040
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
954 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...Mid-MO Valley into southern IA/northern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220153Z - 220700Z

SUMMARY...Brief training of 1 to 3 in/hr rainfall rates may
support localized flash flooding across portions of the MO River
Valley into southern IA/northern MO through 07Z.

DISCUSSION...0145Z radar imagery showed an expanding line segment
of strong to severe convection extending from southeastern NE into
far northwestern MO and southwestern IA. Additional convection was
noted to be racing eastward across eastern KS. These storms were
located just ahead of a wavy cold front and ahead of a low to
mid-level vorticity max in northeastern KS, observed on KTWX radar
imagery, advancing toward the northeast. A small ribbon of
instability was in place ahead of the cold front with 1000 to
2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and PWATs between 1.8 and 2.0 inches via the 01Z
SPC mesoanalysis.

Through 08Z, the cold front and instability are forecast to
continue advancing south and east while forcing ahead of the
northeastern KS vorticity max aids in lift with additional
thunderstorms likely to fill in across the MO/IA border. There
will be an overall progressive movement to individual cells and
instability should trend downward with time, but
repeating/training will also occur at times allowing for 1 to 2,
perhaps as high as 3 in/hr rainfall rates to occur. These high
rates could lead to short term rainfall totals of 3-4 inches in an
isolated location or two. While dry antecedent conditions will
likely limit the coverage of flash flooding, one cannot rule out
urban or otherwise sensitive terrain being impacted by rapid rises
of water.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!93FWATqQzFdWT9c8YIwZ994SCFEOmZI1RvdayzzEiJ-JIq9vE1CK5hz72nA-1xMR_MHr= IzeMbvkk34SZTtBLTOV4aEQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 41909358 41729253 41389184 40989149 40369132=20
40119156 40029204 39969270 39849386 39709523=20
39889618 40659533 41539467=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220319
FFGMPD
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-220718-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1041
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1119 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Areas affected...central/eastern Pennsylvania, north/northeastern
Maryland, northern Delaware

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220318Z - 220718Z

Summary...A cluster of deep convection over central Pennsylvania
was producing spots of rainfall rates approaching 2 inches/hr.=20
Isolated flash flood potential will exist with this activity as
storms migrate toward the southeastern Pennsylvania/northeastern
Maryland border region through 06-07Z.

Discussion...A vigorous shortwave trough over Pennsylvania has
helped to force a relatively fast-moving convective complex that
currently extends from near Williamsport to State College. Ahead
of this complex, cells have developed within a warm/moist axis
characterized by ~1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1-1.5 inch PW values -
highest near Chesapeake Bay. The cells ahead of the linear
complex were moving considerably slower (around 5-10 mph),
allowing for several cell mergers and prolonged rainfall, with
rates approaching 1.5-2 inches/hr at times generally from
Williamsport to Harrisburg.

Both models/observations and objective analyses indicate potential
for the southward-moving convective complex to continue for a few
hours, potentially reaching the MD/PA border region through 0530Z
and the I-95 corridor thereafter. The combination of cells and
linear convective structures suggests potential for at least an
isolated flash flood risk to persist with this activity during
that timeframe - especially near cell mergers and slower-moving
storms. FFG thresholds in much of the region are in the 2.5
inch/hr range, suggesting that the best risk of excessive runoff
should remain 1) isolated and 2) tied to low/sensitive spots and
urbanized land surfaces.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Xo6ruPuoxEk81-UYHxO7tn3Yi-GDj-WGsNLgtLkQi0v8_f_7qEfprDMsBsINvLctM_A= IoYZsPUsH7yZaKHseLQu9Lg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 41157682 40537581 39897560 39197581 38917653=20
39237727 40497798=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221702
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-222200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1042
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Areas affected...Southwest to Central East OK...Southeast TX
Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221700Z - 222200Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, back-building cells with rates of 1"/hr may
pose localized 1-1.5" totals and possible flash flooding
conditions.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W and Regional RADAR mosaic have started to
depict increasing convective activity in both coverage and
vertical depth with peak heating of the day. The highly
anomalous, over 3.5 standard anomaly units from climatology, core
of the closed low is bottoming out across SW California with
vorticity center at the southern base; this is allowing for an elongation/stretching of the mid-level deformation zone to extend
across SW to NE San Bernadino county with increased deep layer
convergence. Given steepening lapse rates with cold air advection
aloft, surface heating into the 80s is starting to support surface
based CAPE values from 500-1000 J/kg to develop over the Southern
California Deserts toward the Colorado River Valley near S Nevada.
While deep layer moisture is a bit limited with only Tds in the
upper 40s, low 50s and total PWat values in the .75 to 1" range.=20
The convergence within the band and orographic ascent confluent
across the San Bernadino/Little Bernadino/San Jacinto Ranges
supports stronger vertical development and sufficient moisture
flux to support .5-1"/hr rates.=20

Limited cell motions given proximity to the closed low/deformation
zone will allow for very slow/stationary motion with upstream redevelopment/backbuilding along the deformation band across NE
CA. Propagation may also allow cells along the mountain ridges
into the Cochella Valley with time. This may allow for spotty
.75-1" totals with an isolated 1.5" total remains possible. Given
naturally low FFG values less than these hourly rates and
potential; an isolated flash flooding incident or two is
considered possible across the area through the late
afternoon/evening hours.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Raf4jFpWLwzZnXM89GEBYYsNLqlif8rCj3u1a-UXyChH7ZjaLJXKLZBzBqkBK8BeHzR= 62Ek7z1HNOtP0vFSlRmWc1g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36109607 36069525 35799487 35339499 34969571=20
34729672 34459805 34099985 33890132 34520180=20
35150101 35629991 35919906 36089804 36069700=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 221735
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-222200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1042...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Corrected for Resend of Text

Areas affected...Southwest to Central East OK...Southeast TX
Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 221700Z - 222200Z

SUMMARY...Potential for elevated training cells with rates slowly
increasing as cells approach surface front and deep moisture flux
inflow. Isolated rates up to 2"/hr and totals of 2-3" may result
in localized flash flooding particularly near urban or hard/baked
ground conditions.

DISCUSSION...16z surface analysis depicts a stationary front from
TQH at the the southward sagging cold front across the MOKSAROK
across to SRE to OUN to FSI and a low near FDR before becoming a
bit less defined across NW Texas into deeper low level status.=20=20
This stratus is banked in west of the surface low, but also within
the best isentropic ascent from return Gulf moisture along the low
level jet. Upper-level jet is sliding east and as such, the
mid-levels quickly veering across 850-700mb resulting in
convergent flow aloft of the Eastern Cap Rock into SW OK. Modest
500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and the FGEN forcing has been breaking out
convection for the last few hours with increasing coverage across
TX. Total moisture values through this eastward angling moisture
plume are fairly solid at at 1.5-2 standard anomaly units above
average between 1.5-1.75", but slowly climbing with the addition
of the return Gulf moisture and increasing confluence into the
mid-levels. As such, rainfall rates are slowly increasing from
1-1.5"/hr into an increasingly favorable steering flow allowing
for training elements over the next few hours.=20=20

Recent drought conditions resulting in very high FFG values are
likely still too high for these rates (with exception of central
Cap Rock where values are more approachable); however, as the
cells move eastward, the proximity to the surface front reduces
and bases are lowering and trying to root more toward the surface.
This is allowing for increased moisture flux into the updrafts
with Tds in the upper 60s. As a result, rainfall rates are
starting to increase to around 2"/hr with some occasional as well
a approaching increased urbanization. While 1hr FFG values are
still above 2.5"; the prolonged drought may have further hardened
the upper ground surface making infiltration even more difficult
and so may be over-estimating FFG. While, not likely to be large
scale or significant in magnitude, isolated flash flooding is
considered possible over the early afternoon hours across the repeating/training corridor particularly near urban centers.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9KdGmtOuz_OUcNklFbAeRysQRnJruYvZldQnH5pIp_Va_0wwL938X9qDU9K_60ot16TT= KcomUwZnyz2iHxDU5lHJp8E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36109607 36069525 35799487 35339499 34969571=20
34729672 34459805 34099985 33890132 34520180=20
35150101 35629991 35919906 36089804 36069700=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 222109
FFGMPD
TXZ000-230215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1043
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
509 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Areas affected...Big Bend into northwestern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222107Z - 230215Z

Summary...Increasing flash flood potential will setup across
portions of Big Bend into the Permian Basin and northwestern TX
through 02Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, but locally in excess of
2 in/hr, are expected to lead to a couple of 3-4" totals.

Discussion...Surface observations from 21Z and visible satellite
imagery helped place a cold front across western TX, with an
attached surface low just south of a MAF to BPG line. Convective
development was increasing along the portion of the front
extending northeast of the surface low, while development near the
weaker cold frontal segment to the southwest of the low was
isolated. 20Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed plenty of instability
in place south of the front with 1000 to near 3000 J/kg MLCAPE
(highest near Rio Grande) along with 1.4 to 1.8 inches of
precipitable water.

Lift across the region was occurring ahead of an advancing
positively tilted upper trough axis extending from the central
High Plains into the Desert Southwest and the right entrance
region of an associated 70-90 kt jet max near 250 mb. Short term
model forecasts show the front continuing to advance gradually off
toward the southeast over the next 3-6 hours into weak
southeasterly low level winds. Surface convergence and forcing
aloft, coupled with the available instability, should be enough to
support increasing convective coverage throughout the remainder of
the afternoon and through the evening, especially between I-10 and
I-20 where mean steering flow will be roughly parallel to the
front, allowing for repeating and merging of cells along with
rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr (locally in excess of 2 in/hr
possible).

Farther south, coverage of convection may remain more isolated,
especially in the vicinity of Big Bend N.P. where forcing is
weaker and some pockets of weak inhibition likely remain. However,
speed shear profiles will support some organized, possibly slower
moving, cells. The potential for merging cells will also exist
farther south, but this is conditional on higher coverage
occurring closer to Big Bend. Despite dry antecedent conditions
over roughly the past 3 weeks, at least isolated flash flood
potential will exist across northwestern TX into the Big Bend
region where a couple of 3-4" totals may occur.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9K-bFj-sylLBsR7j0mHcwfwqYt-TxrY4hDEg3KDcOpAwlKjqaEpDV1S1gdB0L66Rw3qF= sj0PYfsq-x4Osm22-C8W9_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33729859 32849831 32029859 31079965 30550040=20
29920157 29560234 29280254 29000277 28820309=20
28780346 28930371 29060390 29380406 29620412=20
29790420 30210429 30510423 30620403 30470357=20
30580305 31150249 31880211 32710136 33320000=20
33649925=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232104
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-240215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1044
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Areas affected...eastern KY/TN into the central/southern
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232103Z - 240215Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible across portions
of eastern KY/TN into the central/southern Appalachians. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be possible where brief training of cells
occurs.

Discussion...2045Z visible satellite and regional radar imagery
showed scattered thunderstorms ongoing from portions of central
KY/northern TN into the central/southern Appalachians. A recent
increase in the coverage of storms appears to be driven by daytime
heating and increased ascent ahead of an elongated vorticity
maximum observed on water vapor imagery from western TN into
northern MS. SPC mesoanalysis data from 20Z showed 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE and weakly anomalous precipitable water values of 1.5 to
1.9 inches across the region. The ongoing cells were moving with
the deeper layer mean wind of 15-25 kt in a general eastward
fashion.

There is some concern that as the vorticity max over TN/MS
continues to advance toward the northeast, increased forcing ahead
of this feature will act on instability already in place to
support greater coverage of cells heading through the remainder of
the evening, increasing the potential for areas of brief training
that could support locally higher rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr.
While this threat is expected to remain low, areas of low FFG
exist ever portions of eastern KY/TN into the Appalachians with 1
to 2 inches in an hour.

Outside of terrain, no significant boundaries were analyzed that
are expected to have an impact on cell placement and the
expectation moving forward is that cells will continue to remain
somewhat disorganized and multicellular in nature, although
increasing shear from the west may support some more organized
cells. However, beyond ~02Z, the expectation is that diminishing
instability with the loss of daytime heating will contribute to a
reduction in storm coverage and a lowering of the flash flood
threat.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7xwZHjpOHFc8VP5Yl0hUJw2muici3tJZiNP8J4-9UyVi6AgGbQ_cNsgG5-SHlxkyU7lX= vjSUgTQ-gi3TDz2CxvFgOxo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LMK...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37758313 37678264 37428100 37278083 36548088=20
36148161 35238255 35358389 35848446 36568457=20
37018485 37318493 37658490 37738455 37748401=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 232314
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-240510-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1045
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Areas affected...southeastern MO/northeastern AR into Mid-MS
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 232312Z - 240510Z

SUMMARY... The potential for SW to NE training of heavy rain will
increase overnight from the eastern AR/MO border region into the
and across the MS River. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected
with totals of 2 to 4 possible on a localized basis.

DISCUSSION...Fading visible satellite imagery at 23Z and regional
radar imagery showed a recent increase in the intensity of
thunderstorms over northern AR into MO, especially with a small
line segment located between STL and UNO. Additionally, a
northeastward tracking mesolow was observed in northern AR,
co-located with a small area of showers to its north. The regional
uptick in convection was occurring ahead of an upper level
vorticity max over western MO seen on water vapor imagery,
tracking ENE. At the surface, a low was located about 75 miles
southwest of STL with a stationary front extending eastward into
southern KY and cold front extending southward from the low into
west-central AR. Earlier clearing on visible imagery ahead of the
cold front from northeastern AR into southeastern MO had allowed
for greater coverage of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE located in the warm
sector over southeastern MO via SPC mesoanalysis data. Moisture
via area GPS observations and mesoanalysis data revealed values of
1.5 to 1.8 inches throughout the Mid-MS Valley.

As the upstream vorticity max/trough axis continue to move east
overnight, thunderstorm coverage is expected to expand across
southeastern MO/northeastern AR into southern IL, especially for
locations near/north of the stationary front. Some modest increase
in 850 mb flow is expected beyond 00Z ahead of the trough with
greater coverage of 20-25 kt southwesterlies forecast through 04Z
by the latest RAP which should lead to greater isentropic ascent
from the MO/IL border into southern IL and western portions of KY.
Due to unidirectional southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front,
instances of southwest to northeast training will be favored as
the general precipitation axis advances toward the east, ahead of
the upstream upper vort/trough axis. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
and localized maxima of 2 to 4 inches will be possible

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5_6Emwuq6zhHW2iJFCI5PUcMQIN5Ahy_RM0Yxe-KA6KEFeOwR83_2faIU-LwAaPQ8-kD= VCb6uhEFlOVr3vBHJbBDhFs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39338855 38468784 36748875 36378912 35798979=20
35479042 35419117 35679184 36149221 37119221=20
38239099 38998989=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240326
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-240924-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1046
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Areas affected...southern Illinois, southern Indiana, northern
Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240324Z - 240924Z

Summary...A cluster of thunderstorms was intensifying over
southwestern Illinois and will move eastward across the discussion
area over the next 6 hours. Isolated instances of flash flooding
are possible with this activity.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts expanding
convective coverage along an axis extending from near Mount
Vernon, IL southwestward through Cape Girardeau, MO. These storms
were loosely organized, with a number of cell mergers across
south-central Illinois and a limited amount of training closer to
Cape Girardeau. The storms were being forced by 1) a strong
mid-level wave just east of St. Louis and 2) sufficient
moisture/instability (~1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.7 inch PW values)
for strong updrafts and efficient rainfall. Recent MRMS imagery
depicts a gradual increase in coverage of 1-1.5 inch/hr rainfall
rates that were beginning to approach one-hour FFG thresholds
across southern Illinois.

Models/objective guidance suggests that these trends will continue
with eastward extent toward southern Indiana and northern Kentucky
over the next 3-6 hours. Storms should reach southwestern Indiana
and vicinity around 0530Z. The loosely organized nature of the
storms (with occasional development but downstream and southwest
of the majority of ongoing convection) should continue to allow
for occasional cell mergers/training and spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates at times. These rates should fall on ground conditions
characterized by 1.5-2.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds, and the spotty
nature of the heavier rain rates suggest isolated flash flood
potential especially in low spots and urbanized areas.=20

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7d4CwpoNKF4sSwzivgNOsflGcyeNSMtGWdfkhlUDVtLadz85CxGbafKDiS0J-KTDzgwx= sfXLj6xAmeVVf8P1EkM96RE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39438581 39148495 38508490 37678540 37188737=20
37198911 37748959 38648932 39208835=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241738
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-242300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1047
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas affected...Southern to South-central Appalachians...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241735Z - 242300Z

SUMMARY...Scattered cells ahead of main convective lines may
pre-soak rugged areas with spot of 1-2.5" resulting in scattered
possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E visible imagery shows a fairly clear skies
over the Appalachians across S WV/SW VA into E TN/W NC and far
upstate SC. Temperatures have risen to upper 70s/low 80s with
well above average low level moisture having filtered through the
range with Tds in the mid to upper 60s. As such, the area has
become fairly unstable with 1250-1750 J/kg of MLCAPE. Solid
25-40kts of southwesterly 850-700mb flow has been advecting
increasing moisture through the lowest levels to further moisten
the lower column with total moisture reaching 1.5" even into the
higher slopes with some suggestion of 1.7" starting to reach
eastern TN through the Cumberland Plateau.

While main northern stream trough remains well west over the
Midwest digging into the Tri-Rivers area of W KY, a subtle
southern stream wave can be seen sliding through E TN moving
generally parallel to the slopes. This forcing combined with
low-level convergence from approaching pre-frontal convective line
out of KY, is starting to spark increasing TCu and incipient CBs
across the clearer skies downstream. More mature cells along the
pre-frontal trough as well as very near the shortwave lifting
north will likely continue to enhance with cells capable of
1.25-1.75"/hr rates. While cell motions will likely limit overall
totals to about 30-60 minutes, it is the pre-cursory cells that
given solid instability and updraft strength may be capable of a
similar 1-2"/hr total prior to the main forcing lines that may
result in spots of 1.5-2.5" totals over a 3 hour period as they
repeat or at time merge with the cells in the effective warm
sector ahead of the line.=20

Hydrologically, the rugged area has naturally lower FFG values at
1-1.5"/hr and 1-2"/3hr which suggest either slower moving
pre-cursory cells or the stronger forced lines will have a solid
potential of being exceeded. The scattered and transitory nature
is likely to result in localized scattered incidents of flash
flooding given 1.5-2.5" totals through 00z.=20=20=20=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5mft5fm8mf2N5imOwIwoq5Gk1GRjjKCLt02m9aPzM6Dg8tRMdIhlW0tN497hvPe5bHVu= yFmsBq5Z_jd0_DRdQbAikl8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LWX...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38798028 38517956 37897963 37337997 36208103=20
35368190 34978242 34898304 35248336 35868325=20
36378346 36968305 37638230 38528109=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241905
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-250104-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1048
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee, Central/Eastern Kentucky, into
southern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241904Z - 250104Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm clusters ahead of cold front may
bring 1.5-2.5" resulting in isolated flash flooding into this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional NEXRAD and GOES-E IR imagery shows a few
thunderstorm clusters have developed over middle TN and central KY
which is ahead of a cold front. Recent rainfall estimates of
1.5"/hr are seen south of Cincinnati and north of Nashville.
Sufficient moisture of 1.6 to 1.7" PW and instability with MLCAPE
1500-2000 J/kg are allowing this heavy development. SWly low level
flow, which is parallel to the advancing cold front, is 25-30kt
which will keep a repeating thunderstorm threat into the evening
and slow eastward progression despite relatively quick storm
motions in 45kt mean layer steering flow.

There are more flash-flood susceptible areas in the outlook
including south central KY where 2-3" fell overnight, urban areas
such as the ones mentioned above, and over northern KY where 3hr
FFG is around 1". This scattered activity will continue to produce
1-2" in a couple hours with localized amounts of 3" possible into
the evening. Should these higher totals fall on the more
susceptible areas, flash flooding is possible. Overall the flash
flooding is more of an isolated threat.
=20=20=20=20

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7-7T1clRwaLuLTAgutQiZls3BhimUncxZuRrWD4Eul7s6j04z3xwrqHGfZ9f_liFCHYr= 2kJezEn-YshYLYYoDedV2t8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39678323 39028216 37978207 36338398 34478767=20
34628872 35478823 36498724 37468652 38028600=20
39098487=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242230
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-250415-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1049
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
629 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas affected...Southwestern Virginia and West-Central North
Carolina into Upstate South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 242227Z - 250415Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of thunderstorms focusing over a
stationary front near the NC/VA border brings the risk for quick 2
to 4" rainfall and scattered flash flooding into this overnight.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms, some of which are supercells, will
continue to develop in a warm sector in southwest VA and western
NC and further develop as they cross a stationary front/cold air
damming wedge and into south-central VA and central NC. Recent
rainfall estimates of 2.5"/hr are near Martinsburg, VA which is
just beyond the stationary front. High moisture (PW 1.8 to 2.0")
and instability (MLCAPE 1500 to 2500 J/kg) are allowing this heavy
development in the warm sector which convergence and a sharp
downward gradient over the front slowing activity that crosses it.
SWly low level flow is 15 to 20 kt which will keep
moisture/instability advection over the front and allow further
development.

Confidence has increased in the flash flood potential along the
front with recent HRRRs/18Z NAMnest all featuring QPF of 2 to 4"=20
before midnight along the west-central NC/VA border and into
south-central VA. Stability well into the cold sector behind the
front should continue to limit the progression of activity to a
couple counties into south-central VA with ongoing activity
expected west of the Blue Ridge to the Alleghenies of VA. Further
development is likely down the eastern side of the Appalachians
tonight, so the outlook area include western NC into Upstate SC
given earlier heavy activity there today. Previous flooding in the Raleigh-Durham Triangle makes them vulnerable and the presence of
the front through there should allow for further flooding
concerns. All to say flash flooding is likely through this evening
near the frontal zone and better characterized as possible farther
south over western NC into SC.
=20=20=20=20

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!58JoNc9J0GamLjSQ9HPixWWiI7gwoL3lfkh7uxN0BFzsdi5frmirA49hLkdj4eEPzpkv= ru_mMk4mSxJFr8W4jAkNMNI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37777959 37167911 36807809 36187811 35817869=20
35247959 35448056 35428136 34988224 35398278=20
35998190 36638133 37048113 37418058 37728013=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 242313
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-250500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1050
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas affected...South-Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242311Z - 250500Z

SUMMARY...Threat for further thunderstorm development overnight
ahead of cold front may bring additional 2 to 3" resulting in
isolated flash flooding overnight.

DISCUSSION...Scattered supercells have developed east of the
pre-frontal convection over east-central KY and middle TN in the
broad warm sector west of the crest of the south-central
Appalachians. Recent rainfall estimates from KJKL are up to
1.5"/hr over far eastern KY. Sufficient moisture of 1.5 to 1.6" PW
and instability with MLCAPE 1000 to 1500 J/kg will continue to
allow redevelopment of activity this heavy. There are further
threats for flash flooding as the main pre-frontal convection
comes through later this evening along with topographical lift
from the western slopes of the south-central Apps. Deviant motion
has been noted from left-moving super cells, so cell mergers and
local upwind propagation will continue to be where the greatest
flash flood threat is into the overnight.

This area has rather low FFG, generally 1 to 1.5"/hr and around
2"/3hr. So overlap from ongoing activity and the next round
further raises the potential for flash flooding. Recent HRRR runs
have indicated generally 1 to 2" from both rounds, which helps
point to an isolated flash flood threat overnight.
=20=20=20=20

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!75eMTg0spooPsLUE1keXbR57wZa4sbuEhmAqL5dpbjCc5h6NXe_vGZILIcYyjPGOlC0A= hulzEaW9c_W3MoErGIBVbQs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38268090 37298082 36138197 35498348 36318409=20
37188367 38208261=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250431
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-251029-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1051
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...much of North Carolina, upstate South Carolina,
and a small part of southern/southeastern Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250429Z - 251029Z

Summary...Continued rounds of thunderstorms are expected to
repeat/train across the discussion area through 08-09Z/4-5am
Eastern. Rain rates exceeding 2 inches/hour at times are expected
to result in at least localized flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Over the last 2-3 hours, thunderstorms have focused
along an axis extending from far northwestern South Carolina (near
Spartanburg) east-northeastward through Raleigh/Durham and on to
Roanoke Rapids. These storms were oriented parallel to
west-southwesterly steering flow aloft, allowing for spots of
localized training along the aforementioned axis. Additionally,
enhanced low-level flow (around 25 knots across the Piedmont) were
aiding in persistent low-level convergence along the axis while
also maintaining 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5-2 inch PW values
within the pre-convective environment. These factors are
continuing to support areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times
that were threatening local FFG thresholds across the region
(generally in the 1.5-2 inch/hr range - lowest in western and
central North Carolina). This regime is expected to persist, with
at least isolated flash flood potential materializing across the
discussion area. A few spots of 4 inch rainfall totals are
possible through 10Z. Some concern exists that the Raleigh/Durham
area could experience heavier rain rates and urbanized flash flood
potential overnight. Additional concerns exist across areas that
have received 1-3 inch rainfall totals over the past 6 hours,
where wet soils are likely to contribute to a greater risk for
excessive runoff (especially in south-central/southeastern
Virginia and central North Carolina).

Moisture/instability profiles support redevelopment north of the
primary convective axis (across northwestern North
Carolina/southwestern Virginia) as well. Thunderstorms are
expected to be a bit less focused in these areas (with lower
potential for training/repeating). Isolated instances of flash
flooding are still possible in this regime, however, especially
where 1.5 inch/hr rain rates can materialize over sensitive/low
spots.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6QnbCKMXB2agTymKG-p9ro26LkVSQzd30BsDpzjNOZm1Sti2TuAqiYdZpbsfAwni5hl6= 2BY95B542irfj5fwy1xyN_4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37467723 36997655 36377659 35677725 35247924=20
34898198 35158287 35648240 36178142 36877979=20
37317834=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250657
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-251256-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1052
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
257 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky, western Virginia, and
northeastern Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 250656Z - 251256Z

Summary...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to
migrate northeastward across the southern/central Appalachians,
where wet soils have left ground conditions vulnerable to
excessive runoff. Isolated instances of flash flooding are
possible through early morning (12Z/8am Eastern).

Discussion...Ascent/difluence aloft associated with longwave
troughing across the central U.S. continues to support persistent,
but scattered thunderstorm activity across the discussion area.=20
The convection continues to persist in a marginally unstable
environment (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) although with sufficient moisture
(1.5 inch PW) for heavier rainfall to materialize in a few of the
cells. Modest low-level forcing/focus was allowing for convective
bands to migrate northeastward amid appreciable steering flow
(around 35 knots), with localized backbuilding/training and
favorable orientation of the bands (to flow aloft) allowing for
prolonged rainfall and spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates at times.=20
FFG thresholds in the region were generally around an inch or
less, and convection was occasionally exceeding those thresholds,
suggesting isolated/sporadic flash flood potential in the short
term.

Models/observations suggest that the overall scenario supporting
isolated flash flood potential should remain in place through the
early morning hours (12Z or so). Scattered convection should
continue to initially deepen across eastern Tennessee and migrate
northeastward atop areas of wet soils and hilly terrain, with
occasional and sporadic instances of flash flood guidance
exceedance. Convective coverage and limited instability are
mitigating factors for a larger-scale flash flood threat, though a
few instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-uF8xM0IG71y07af3nQfOkcj8xQs7O_2wSe3nTHk46YTvQc1HUwseHxC6rDOJV4blgu9= UJitnDYvRC28jG316xvgKbk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37738248 37278166 37368085 37448034 37078013=20
36528032 36108159 35858306 35648356 35728397=20
36218439 36928407 37558355=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251501
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-252100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1053
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1101 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251500Z - 252100Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be possible this afternoon as the
Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) begins from northeast Alabama through
the Southern Appalachians

DISCUSSION...The well-advertised PRE has begin to take shape
across portions of the Southeast this morning. Storms have
developed in a cluster across eastern Alabama with another one
over eastern Tennessee. FFGs in the area are high...generally
around 2.5 inches in 1 hour for Alabama and Georgia, but they are
much lower in eastern Tennessee around Knoxville.

An upper level low across far western Tennessee is drawing
increasing moisture northwestward across Georgia into this zone
where the storms are forming. Upper level jet stream winds are
expected to approach 100 kts, which will increase the upper level
divergence over the storms in the right entrance region, thus
further enhancing the lift.

Through mid-afternoon, CAMs guidance suggests additional line
segments of storms will develop generally aligned SSW to NNE
across the area. Embedded cells within the lines, as now, will
track NNE, roughly parallel to the lines. The result will be some
areas seeing multiple rounds of training thunderstorms, each
capable of producing rainfall rates to 2.5 inches per hour...with
those heaviest rates more likely once the storms move more into
Georgia later this afternoon. Further, since the storms will be
moving roughly parallel to the lines, the lines' forward speed to
the east will be slow, allowing for multiple cells repeating over
the same areas. Even now with pockets of 2 inch per hour rates
associated with the strongest storms, the training nature of the
storms will result in multiple rounds over potentially flood-prone
and urban areas. Thus, even where FFG values are higher, the
repeating nature of the storms will locally lower values as
repeated storms move overhead.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8fuzp5UF4MyLM5i4ice_SruJT_LUmPhvtYGUW8MjuAu0_gBz4F9ucTfRSImAXt0lc3gk= Rw4cLLKMvpdj6fkAj_k4YFo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36768370 36298236 34918356 33728479 32768559=20
33518664 34718567 35388522=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251701
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-252100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1054
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...North Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251700Z - 252100Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and training thunderstorms associated with
the developing predecessor rain event (PRE) are likely to cause an
urban flash flooding threat as they approach Atlanta.

DISCUSSION...A line of slow-moving and training thunderstorms has
developed west of Atlanta this afternoon. The storms are making
their way into the metro area. The storms have a history of
producing rainfall rates up to 2.5 inches per hour across far
northwestern Georgia.

As the storms move into Atlanta within the next hour, potential
for training as well as locally heavy rain with any stronger storm
cores will likely cause flash flooding in the streams and creeks
around the city that are most prone to flooding due to heavy rain.

Beyond the initial round of heavy rain, backbuilding storms as
well as new development south of town will likely result in a
long-duration rain event where steady light to moderate rain may
continue across the city through the afternoon.

East of town the flash flooding threat through the afternoon will
be significantly lower, as higher FFGs in the rural areas should
mean much more rainfall will be needed before significant flash
flooding occurs. However, given the increasing moisture out ahead
of Helene, slow moving storms, and most importantly, training of
the storms...even outside of town flash flooding will be possible
through the afternoon.

The much greater threat for flooding area-wide is expected to be
later tonight as stronger easterly flow associated with the
approach of Helene slows any eastward-moving storms significantly.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9mpvhlMUu9Aq2Zs1wxis2Q0CchZDvwR4RY3t5Gr396QjSW1VhmnT7NPnPbLBc8QIusML= 7SPiSIbuQaJ_DPWHBfdYcM0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35198318 34768295 34408294 33868312 33198372=20
33098440 33098481 33028522 33848462 34728366=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251800
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-252359-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1055
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Southern Alabama into Western Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251759Z - 252359Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving bands of heavy thunderstorms in a plume of
tropical moisture ahead of Helene will continue to produce areas
of 2.5" hourly rainfall and the potential for 4" rest of the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of slow-moving heavy thunderstorm bands
oriented SSW to NNE over southern/eastern AL will continue to
converge and shift north over the next hour or so, then likely
drift east into western Georgia rest of the afternoon. Hourly
rainfall of 2.5"/hr has been estimated from both KMXX and KEOX
over Butler Co AL. While 1hr FFG exceeds 3" there, lower FFG near
2"/hr is in the Montgomery metro area as points east where an inch
of rain fell overnight.

This activity is on leading edge of the core of Helene-sourced
moisture with PW of 2" just now entering southeast AL. A tongue of
2.25" PW will shift up the AL/GA border by 00Z on 15 to 20kt
southerly flow, further increasing the risk for extreme rainfall
trough tonight.

Guidance has generally underdone the coverage of activity though
recent HRRRs are decent. Through 00Z, areas of 2-4" are likely.
However, this area has been in drought, so FFG will only be
exceeded in the most extreme rates and potentially in more
sensitive urban areas like Montgomery, so flash flooding through
the afternoon is considered possible.

This event alone is the drought breaker for much of southeast AL,
but unfortunately this area will continue to receive extreme
rainfall at times now through the passage of Helene Thursday
night. Further updates on this situation can be expected this
evening and Helene in general at hurricanes dot gov.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4_E-pL511Oj2rc_woMysisJ7HgYCBVuJG5hJFlHVjDgcdZxF6aBRhbZ9eawPpWCoesqE= 6PidKCjNULmwP9J4_jcF71Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33218473 33008406 32188449 31058522 31028696=20
32408663 33038619=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251842
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-260041-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1056
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
241 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Western Slopes of South-Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251841Z - 260041Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding into this evening as the
Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) expands north west of the
south-central Appalachian crest.

DISCUSSION...Two north-south corridors of locally heavy rain have
developed west of the crest of the Appalachians over eastern
KY/southern OH and over far southeast VA into central WV.
Localized rates of 1.25"/hr have been estimated recently south and
east of KJKL. This heavy rain is currently moving out of an area
in far southwest VA that received 3"+ over the past day.

An upper level low centered over the western tip of Kentucky is
drawing Gulf moisture on southwesterly low level flow around 10kt
which is why activity has been on the west side of the Appalachian
Crest thus far. Instability is somewhat limited with MLCAPE around
500 J/kg. However broad scale lift east of the developing low will
continue to overcome the lower instability.=20

Through the rest of the afternoon expect embedded cells of heavier
rain to continue lifting north with localized areas exceeding
1"/hr rainfall with potential for 2-3" in some pockets through
00Z. FFG is low in places, around 1"/3hrs where the heaviest rain
fell in far southwest VA and generally 1.5"/3hr elsewhere. Given
the lack of prolonged higher rates, flash flooding is considered
possible with an isolated coverage.

An intense moisture plume from Helene will shift up the southern
Appalachians overnight which will shift the heavy rainfall focus
to the eastern side of the southern Appalachian crest, so please
stay tuned for further heavy rainfall updates.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8dGFpl2olqaoar73bLvnYKwMMCeOBWHRFcefpBU8_lLPWZ6DJPd4_DWNlcNbm4tz5Yu1= TH_odiAFPPN8uu0VhTiNifA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39208194 38218211 37998167 38898050 38788002=20
38148034 37398116 36268191 36458364 37808331=20
39108265=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252015
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-260200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1057
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...North Georgia and the Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 252013Z - 260200Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms will continue to lift over the
Atlanta Metro area rest of this afternoon and over the eastern
side of the southern Appalachians through tonight. Flash flooding
is likely, particularly in Appalachian terrain, through this
evening before becoming considerable to catastrophic overnight.

DISCUSSION...Convergence of the tropical plume of moisture ahead
of Helene and a cold front over southern Alabama has allowed a
particularly heavy line of slow-moving and training thunderstorms
to develop over southeast AL into western GA. This northward shift
in moisture is driven by an upper low centered over far western
KY. Recent rainfall estimates of 2 to 3" per hour are from KFFC
and KMXX over eastern AL/western GA. The heaviest rain thus far
has stayed south of the Atlanta metro and outflow is seen on KFFC
which indicates the main threat for now to be avoiding that
particular area.

However, the tropical moisture plume with PW of 2 to 2.25" will
shift up the AL/GA border rest of the afternoon, pushing moisture
and instability back over the Atlanta metro and then up the
eastern side of the southern Appalachians through this evening.
Terrain enhanced rainfall there will quickly fill in a gap of
rainfall over the past day that in western NC (surrounding
Asheville). Rates of 2"/hr is likely by this evening which would
exceed the FFG of 1.5-2"/hr. Flash flooding is likely through 02Z.
The 18Z HRRR depiction of 2-4" in terrain over western NC and
northeast GA is reasonable, but around 1" additional seems low for north-central GA and the Atlanta metro with a few additional
inches possible.

The much greater threat for flooding area-wide is expected to be
later tonight as even stronger southeasterly flow associated with
the approach of Helene pushes ever greater moisture into the same
eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians with potentially
catastrophic flash flooding overnight.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9G545def8ARs157X46OEZ-10V0iw4FQu_LPb0uvj5WgbYbegSDjzE2wychwhfZbHECPL= y9Z-3OHKQcLxwU6yRDCLhco$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36478281 36268158 34908229 33878304 33158365=20
33158508 33548517 34468443 35388418=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252247
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-260445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1058
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
646 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Florida Panhandle into Central Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 252245Z - 260445Z

SUMMARY...Particularly heavy rain is expected in southwest Georgia
into the Florida Panhandle this evening due to convergence of
pre-frontal activity from the west and the outermost banding of
Helene from the south. Flash flooding is likely despite dry
preconditions due to extreme rainfall rates of 3" per hour.

DISCUSSION...Heavy and locally excessive pre-frontal activity over
southeast AL and west-central GA is shifting east on outflow while
the outermost bands of Helene have been tracking north over the FL
Peninsula. Convergence of these two areas is progged this evening
over southwest Georgia into the FL Big Bend/eastern Panhandle.
This outer band is on the leading edge of particularly high
moisture, lining up with the 2.2" PW contour from recent RAP
analysis with PW climbing to 2.4" farther down the Peninsula which
is 2.5 sigma over normal. Sufficient instability is present with
MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg.

Recent HRRR runs have been under realizing rainfall rates which
are estimated from KTLH and KVAX over Thomas County, GA. However,
the timing in recent HRRRs has been decent with the main
convergence over southwest GA occurring between 00Z and 02Z. There
is a risk for 2 to 5" rainfall through the rest of the evening
which is only a little above the high 3hr FFG of 4 to 5" due to a
lack of rain in this part of GA yet. However, these extreme rates
from slow moving and merging cells warrants likely wording for
this discussion.

A trough extending southwest from western GA extends over the FL
Panhandle and should provide a focus for some additional heavy
rain, so the discussion area is extended west about halfway
through the Panhandle. As of now the area west of Apalachee Bay
which received heavy rain earlier today appears to be south of the
main heavy rain risk area, but given this coast is in the main
Helene moisture plume there is at least a localized excessive
rainfall risk there.

Further banding from Helene approaches this area overnight, so
expect further MPDs tonight and through the passage of Helene
Thursday night.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7gQy-L5rRb2YDCuFlBs4dXTBE357slN-AZ2GzHbhs4ufqAFgFZIzioZAvrmI1xNjA8Vy= _3ooxOdSwPTpoIKVBXAXnTY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33338324 32558294 30998309 30018392 29348506=20
30198636 30938639 31758554 32598502 33278448=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260011
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-260600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1059
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Southern Virginia into West Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260009Z - 260600Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding into the overnight as moisture
ahead of Helene streams over a stationary front and into the
eastern slopes of the Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...The northern end of the moisture plume in advance of
Helene is lifting across NC and will cross a persistent front over southern/southwestern VA rest of the evening. Scattered
thunderstorms have broken out along this frontal zone and to the
west there remains terrain enhanced rainfall along the eastern
slopes of the Appalachians. There were two main areas of heavy
rain in this region over the past day, farther east over the NC/VA
border last night, and earlier today west of the stationary front.
The main focus for heavy rain into the overnight is generally
progged to be between these two areas, but this is where the Blue
Ridge is, so a bit of a broader swath as been drawn for possible
flash flooding.

Instability is sufficient with MLCAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/kg and
moisture influx has been noted with low level southerly flow will
increase from 15 to 30 kt through midnight which will reinforce PW
around 1.7". Deep layer mean flow is around 30kt which should keep
activity east of the Blue Ridge progressive, but localized
rainfall over 1"/hr may cause some flooding issues. Terrain
enhanced rates of 1"/hr will also cause concern...flash flooding
is considered possible into the overnight.=20

Further activity in the southern Mid-Atlantic is likely into
Thursday, so please be on the look out for updated heavy rainfall
info.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!56Cb5WgNNgRrZQDnZzC0kwz7gCJUpY4QCWynC2pdhntabD3FeXxXi4cnQGuGebI-IJKF= kBCxNkSZVKrwnVQ0tS7Xl8E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38287993 37917941 37677879 37207740 36577758=20
36257848 36118091 36658225 37368181 37738106=20
38278046=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260249
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-260600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1060
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Areas affected...Piedmont of GA and SC into the southern
Appalachains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260248Z - 260600Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training are expected to continue over the next
few hours from the Piedmont of GA and SC into the southern
Appalachians. Peak rainfall rates in excess of 2 in/hr are
expected with potential for considerable impacts.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery over the Southeast showed an
advancing area of heavy rain moving north through south-central GA
along with a persistent axis of training heavy rain across the
southeast facing slopes of the southern Appalachians/Blue Ridge
Mountains. An axis of south to north training has been observed
from just south of I-40 near Lake Lure in western NC northward
toward the VA/NC border near Damascus. Observed peak rainfall
rates have occasionally reached between 2-3 in/hr with rainfall
totals for the day of 4 to 6 inches in the vicinity of I-40
between Asheville and Marion.

Low level southeasterly winds of 20-30 kt in the 925-850 mb layer
are expected to maintain a plume of robust moisture transport into
the terrain over the next few hours, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
located just upstream across the Piedmont and adjacent foothills
of the mountains. An axis of low level convergence and areas of
training are expected to continue across western NC, and though
some lower rainfall rates are likely at times, the persistent
nature of training will continue a likely threat of flash flooding
with locally significant/considerable flash flood impacts
possible. Farther south into GA, the northward advancement of
heavier rain will be moving into portions of the state which
picked up 2 to 3 inches of rain since Wednesday afternoon with an
additional inch or two possible by 06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9uRkReJ5am0F6lbjtuStoZddiEjBCfZhdS_JySntPthWdIf3NEWU_zgWgKKSDX_vt3n9= RL_sllcvfYezbrWt4Jh7v3s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36658178 36408143 36068111 35308187 34808214=20
34318256 33568286 33438358 33588397 33778433=20
34318452 34918431 35448364 36028295 36358267=20
36608234=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260552
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-261030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1061
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
152 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...eastern WV into central VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260548Z - 261030Z

SUMMARY...A few areas of training will maintain a flash flood over
the next 3-4 hours, but decreasing instability is expected to
diminish the threat by 10Z. Peak rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 in/hr
are expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms remained as of
0530Z across central/western VA into eastern WV. MRMS-derived
rainfall rates over the past 2 hours have been peaking in the 1 to
1.5 in/hr range, mainly near areas of mesoscale rotation. Cells
were being driven along the leading edge of moisture
transport/warm air advection along an anomalous moisture plume
extending well northward of Hurricane Helene located in the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Low level upslope flow was also a factor
with 20-30 kt of 925-850 mb oriented from the SSE, focused into
the Blue Ridge and Appalachians Mountains, located beneath
diffluent flow aloft to the east of an upper low positioned over
the Lower OH Valley.

A few factors are expected to influence flash flood potential over
the next few hours. While a few pockets of south to north training
and repeating are ongoing from eastern WV into western and central
VA, instability has been...and will continue to fall...through the
remainder of the night. A low level anticyclone off of the central
Mid-Atlantic coast is forecast to shift eastward which should
allow for veering of the low level flow in VA, with winds becoming
oriented more parallel to the axis of terrain. While precipitable
water values will remain high (1.5 to 2.5 standard deviations
above the mean) and highly localized instances of higher rain
rates may remain by 10Z, the overall threat is expected to
diminish later this morning.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_2MzV1xwHkH74tyNhg-PRtf5AHCekb-1piLPcB9LunPN8SIIowq52t5W8RXcl3h8N5FG= AGIUlQs6EECw3Ti_eoZE5Zc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39317873 38997788 38317828 37597878 37447924=20
37437971 37478029 37738058 38018053 38398036=20
38797995 39177930=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260807
FFGMPD
FLZ000-261405-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1063
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Apalachicola region of FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260805Z - 261405Z

SUMMARY...As bands of heavy rain located north of Hurricane Helene
approach the eastern FL Panhandle, renewed areas of flash flooding
are expected toward 12Z. An additional 2-4 inches is expected
through 14Z.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene was located about 375 miles SSW of
Apalachicola, FL according to the 06Z position by NHC, moving
north around 8 kt, though an increase in forward speed is expected
late this morning. While this position is still well south of the
FL Panhandle, 0745Z radar imagery showed axes and spiral bands of
heavy rain located in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, grazing the
western FL Peninsula and Gulf/Franklin counties of the Panhandle.
GOES East water vapor and infrared satellite imagery showed
healthy outflow in the northern semicircle of Helene's circulation
and enhanced divergence aloft was present along the FL Panhandle
due to the presence of a potent upper level jet max centered over
the upper TN/OH Valleys.

An increasing frequency of bands of heavy rain are expected to
impact the FL Panhandle over the next 3-6 hours as Helene
continues to advance north. While rain bands oriented generally
west to east should push north without too much in the way of
training concerns, rain bands that are aligned more with the mean
steering flow from SSE to NNW will be favored for training. Even
short term training could still allow for a quick 1-2 inches of
rain in as little as 15-30 minutes due to the tropical environment
in place. It is expected that steady rain will continue throughout
the remainder of the morning, but with bursts of heavy rain
occurring at times and with an increased frequency through 14Z
along with an additional 2-4 inches.

Given multi-sensor MRMS estimates of 5 to 10 inches of rain over
the past 24 hours from near Apalachicola to Lake Talquin, soil
saturation will more easily support runoff from additional heavy
rain. Since instability of 500 to 1000+ J/kg is forecast to remain
along and offshore of the coast, higher rainfall rates may be
limited to coastal sections of the east-central Peninsula, but
longer duration/lower intensity rainfall could still have flood
impacts farther north.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-uwol5Mp4pDUbDRleBlBuMxXeJNIQI5JtTkfRh_K1Dxz8zgZPVJCvYHKNRwPdm0KYkO7= wfWPNkuiQ1hSdoFhn3ZNCz8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30508455 30298420 29738424 29508479 29468531=20
29588552 29758563 30098552 30318536 30458492=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260652
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-261045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1062
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...central/northern GA into the southern to central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260651Z - 261045Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy rain with south to north training to
build northward through GA into the southern and central
Appalachians through the morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr will
be likely, but isolated 2+ in/hr cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery across the Southeast at 0630Z
showed a "Y" shaped appearance in reflectivity with a branch of
heavier rainfall extending northeastward from the FL Panhandle
into central GA, co-located with a remnant outflow/effective
frontal boundary. A second axis of higher reflectivity extended
northwestward across the GA coast into central GA and a broken
axis of higher reflectivity values was located from central GA
into western NC. These axes of higher reflectivity/heavier
rainfall aligned fairly well with the leading edge of low level
(0-3 km AGL) moisture flux where a plume of 2+ inch precipitable
water values was building northward across GA via southeasterly
low level winds of 20-30 kt. Mesoscale areas of rotation were
embedded within the precipitation shield, associated with enhanced
convergence and higher reflectivity along with with south to north
training following the deeper layer steering flow.

Short term RAP forecasts showed an axis of low level moisture flux
convergence focusing from central GA into the southern
Appalachians through 11Z along with gradually strengthening
925-850 mb winds as Hurricane Helene continues to advance north
from the southern Gulf of Mexico, increasing the low level height
gradient across the Southeast. Flow is expected to be especially
focused along the northern GA/SA border with RAP forecasts of 40
kt by 12Z. The increased low level flow into and perpendicular to
the axis of terrain, coupled with lift within the right entrance
region of a 110-120 kt jet max aloft, should allow for
steady/periods of heavy rain with rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. The
flash flood threat will also exist farther north toward the
upslope regions of the central Appalachians into western NC and
southwestern VA where heavy rain has already fallen over the past
1-2 days, although reduced instability/moisture with northern
extent may temper rainfall rates compared to those farther south.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_mf8Di26G500TgTbBXssuA17EmMKPTbty_iVZuLEhVaiDzKYKRNhX8wlFaPb9Hk6zscb= hHKQLgLumB83leSZcQ8gS-g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36958081 36798069 36308087 35898114 35198192=20
34738225 34178229 32608194 32398331 32648457=20
33238469 34088456 34588434 35168392 35948323=20
36168293 36418229 36588189 36758143 36938111=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261017
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-261445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1064
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
616 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...eastern GA, Upstate SC into the southern/central
Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261015Z - 261445Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding, with locally significant impacts
possible, should be expected for portions of the southern
Appalachians this morning. Training of heavy rain is also likely
to produce areas of flash flooding for other portions of the
Southeast through 14Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 10Z showed an axis of heavy
rainfall with embedded mesoscale circulations extending from
east-central GA along I-16 (Laurens and Treutlen counties)
northward into far Upstate SC and western NC, along the southeast
facing slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. MRMS-estimates
indicated rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5, locally up to 2 in/hr over
the past 1-2 hours within this axis. In addition, 24 hour
estimates from MRMS showed 4 to 8 inch rainfall totals from Oconee
County in far Upstate SC into McDowell County in western NC. The
axis of heavy rain has been co-located with an area of strong low
level moisture flux convergence centered from eastern and northern
GA into western NC where 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed ~500
J/kg MUCAPE but with higher values of instability closer to the
Southeast coast (1000+ J/kg). Precipitable water values ranged
from 1.7 to 2.3 inches across the region (higher toward the
southeast), with an area of strong upper level divergence located
within the right entrance region of a nearly stationary upper
level jet max located east of a closed low positioned over the
Lower OH Valley.

Short term forecasts from the RAP show very little movement to the
axis of low level moisture flux convergence over GA/SC/NC over the
next 2-4 hours. Given little change in the forcing mechanisms in
place, heavy rain potential looks to continue over the next couple
of hours across many of the same locations already seeing heavy
rain. The biggest change is a forecast minor reduction in the
available instability, already somewhat low, over inland
locations. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr may reduce in magnitude but
areas of heavy rain are likely to continue, overlapping with areas
that have already seen heavy rainfall and are experiencing ongoing
flash flooding. Additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are
expected through 14 to 15Z with locally significant flash flooding
possible across portions of the Blue Ridge from Upstate SC into
western NC.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!85b-l1nzVvzOaXO0nT4KP2poRkJtHunD9gwP6wv_R-Zu4PYQCikfO6a2V6j0tGHNYWO7= xpJ46Pxy9Vy68CmprEwQ8DA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36628109 36318087 35428126 34578160 33488154=20
32718152 31958196 31978300 33478369 34918367=20
36068281 36588194=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261353
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-261900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1065
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
952 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Central Florida Panhandle into central Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261351Z - 261900Z

Summary...Repeating rounds of heavy rainfall featuring rates of
1-3"/hr will expand across the FL Panhandle and into the Southeast
today. Where the most pronounced training occurs, rainfall of 2-3"
is likely, with locally more than 5" possible across the central
FL Panhandle. Flash flooding is likely.

Discussion...The GOES-E WV imagery this morning clearly indicates
the impressive tropical moisture plume being channeled northward
from Hurricane Helene which is positioned in the southern Gulf of
Mexico. Downstream, deep moisture characterized by PWs measured by
GPS and regional 12Z soundings of 2-2.5" is funneling northward as
it gets squeezed east of a pronounced upper low positioned over
IL/IN. This impressive moisture will continue to be acted upon by
robust deep layer ascent through downstream mid-level divergence
between Helene and the upper low which will overlap with a
persistent jet streak centered over TN leaving favorable RRQ
diffluence from FL through western NC. A stationary front is
analyzed across the region resulting in locally enhanced
convergence and isentropic ascent as well. Despite abundant cloud
cover which will somewhat minimize the instability potential, the
impressive synoptic ascent into the deep moisture will continue to
support heavy rainfall through the afternoon.

The high-res CAMs are in pretty good agreement the next several
hours that heavy rain will focus along the stationary front and expand/intensify downstream of Helene into the FL Panhandle. This
will likely result in dual maxima for rainfall through the aftn.

Along the front, 850mb winds surging to 30-45 kts will feature
increasing isentropic ascent and converge into the boundary
itself. This is reflected by increasing moisture transport vector
convergence, and Corfidi vectors that become increasingly parallel
to the mean flow and the front. This suggests persistent training
of rainfall rates which the HREF probabilities indicate have a
30-50% chance of exceeding 1"/hr. This could result in 2-3" of
rainfall and instances of flash flooding through the afternoon.

More significant flash flooding potential will gradually develop
across the central FL Panhandle, especially in the vicinity of the
Forgotten Coast. Here, 850mnb winds increasing to above 50 kts
will exceed the mean 0-6km wind, suggesting more broad enhancement
to the ascent. This will occur coincidentally with Corfidi vectors
becoming increasingly anti-parallel to the mean flow, suggesting
an enhanced backbuilding threat and training of rainfall rates
which the HRRR suggests could exceed 3"/hr (0.75-1"/15 mins). This
could produce locally as much as 5" of rain as reflected by 6-hr
HREF neighborhood probabilities, and this will occur atop soils
saturated from 24-hr rainfall that has been 4-8" in this region.
Any of the most intense rain rates will likely result in flash
flooding, with locally significant flash flooding possible in
urban areas or where training occurs atop the most primed soils.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_zS2hmBoXZHeDf15hSPZ9bNwtzm-EInFPQlDT-PwK0MRn3sC83xP7iCTDuwR1zOnv3RX= xO6aKB0FY2dn9f_RT6iz7wM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33508431 33398358 32008269 30938294 29978357=20
29798392 29498454 29378498 29518558 30218618=20
31338605 32308558 33028496 33258477=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261450
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-262030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1066
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261449Z - 262030Z

Summary...Widespread heavy rain downstream of Hurricane Helene
will continue today into the Southern Appalachians. Rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr are likely, which through repeating rounds could
produce 2-3" of rain with local maxima of 5". This will enhance
flash flooding, with significant impacts becoming likely across
the Southern Blue Ridge.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows an
expansive area of heavy rain across much of the Southeast and into
the Southern Appalachians. This is associated with a pronounced
moisture plume noted in the GOES-E WV imagery extending downstream
from Hurricane Helene in the Gulf of Mexico. PWs within this
moisture plume have been measured as high as 1.75 to 2.0 inches on
the 12Z U/A observed soundings from KRAX and KFFC. Instability is
somewhat limited, only around 100-250 J/kg of MLCAPE, but deep
layer ascent is impressive. Mid-level divergence between Helene
and a pronounced upper low over IN is combining with a nearly
stationary poleward arcing jet streak over TN to leave favorable
RRQ over the region, while low-level SE flow continues to upslope
into the terrain. In this environment, rainfall rates have already
been measured via MRMS as high as 1.25", and these will likely
continue through the aftn.

During the next several hours, persistent moderate to heavy rain
with rates 0.5-1"/hr will lift northward across the area, with
embedded convective cells producing locally enhanced rain rates to
2"/hr as reflected by HRRR 15-min rainfall exceeding 0.5". 850mb
inflow will remain out of the S/SE through the aftn while
gradually intensifying to above 30 kts, resulting in moisture flux
that is progged by the SREF to exceed +3 sigma later today. This
impressive moisture advection combining with nearly unchanging
robust ascent will result in continuous rainfall into areas that
have already received 4-8+" of rain the past 24-hours. The HREF
neighborhood probabilities indicate a 50-70% (10-20%) chance of
more than 3" (5") of rain the next 6 hours, with the highest
probabilities across Upstate SC and into far western NC along the
Blue Ridge. Elsewhere in northeast GA, eastern TN, and southwest
VA, 1-3" of additional rainfall is likely through the aftn.

This rainfall occurring atop saturated soils, sensitive terrain,
and ongoing flash flooding, will almost certainly enhance impacts
across the region. FFG has been extremely compromised to as low as
0.25"/3hrs for which the HREF exceedance probabilities reach above
70%. This lends high confidence to flash flooding and impacts as
rain continues across the region. However, across the Blue Ridge,
current streamflow anomalies are as much as 400-600% of normal, so
any additional rainfall could quickly result in significant and life-threatening flash flood impacts.

Additional rainfall this evening will almost certainly necessitate
future MPD issuances across this region with widespread
significant flash flooding, and possibly locally catastrophic
impacts, developing as the rain persists and becomes even more
intense into tonight.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7VIaHIFGs9tb7z-yxhkxhUzgWCRF-29HSujbYUuEdnx4WuiB8dZAQFJz21TUzaVNkwNO= UzZp62A0V08YOLw-JYixReA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...JKL...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37668066 37518005 37058039 35718133 35008180=20
33918230 33768241 33478258 33238297 33248347=20
33558382 34008415 34418448 35568425 36848340=20
37388243 37648158=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261506
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-262105-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1067
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1106 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...South Carolina and Eastern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261505Z - 262105Z

SUMMARY...Extremely heavy rainfall in heavy banding will persist
into the afternoon over eastern Georgia and central South Carolina
including Columbia. Widespread flash flooding with locally
significant impacts is likely through the mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 15Z showed an axis of heavy
rainfall extending north-south over southern to central SC. This
band is redeveloping on the south end and shifting north, nearly
along its axis causing hourly rates of 2.5"/hr. This particular
band is tracking into Columbia which is rather flood prone. The
axis of heavy rain has been co-located with an area of strong low
level moisture flux convergence in a plume of 2.2 to 2.5" PW which
is the core of moisture streaming ahead of Helene on southerly
35kt low level flow. Instability is rather limited decreasing from
1500 J/kg near the SC coast to less than 500 J/kg near Columbia,
but this is overcome from strong dynamics where the mean layer
southerly flow is 40kt and oriented with the activity, causing
training.

Recent HRRR runs are under doing this band and feature more
scattered convective modes through the mid-afternoon. However, the
channeling of this flow between the upper low that remains over
western TN and the ridge east of FL will maintain redeveloping
advection and banding ahead of Helene. Given little change in the
forcing mechanisms in place, heavy rain potential will continue
into the mid-afternoon across many of the same locations already
seeing heavy rain. While FFG was rather elevated over these areas,
it is quickly dropping as heavy rain spreads in. The extreme rates
warrants likely wording for the flash flood risk.

There should be some break in heavy rain here later this afternoon
before banding from Helene returns this evening as the system
passes to the west.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9fBehw2pX7PEGQstADx09gJFOvfS4Qj-UaJx0xcfY3AQGxWXiv4sAJ7E03NeNYZnxxIo= fU3iR6DYtSSLRq3nBO_Z9dk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35078146 34428010 33737988 32777985 32068065=20
31248119 31618254 32388283 32908317 33288314=20
33428275 33828248 34488209 35048177=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261853
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-270000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Central FL Panhandle into central GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261852Z - 270000Z

Summary...Nearly continuous rainfall with rates of 1-3"/hr will
persist into this evening ahead of Hurricane Helene. Training of
these rates will result in widespread additional rainfall of 2-3"
by this evening, with local maxima around 5" possible. This will
expand and enhance ongoing flash flooding, with significant
impacts likely in the central FL Panhandle.

Discussion...The GOES-E visible imagery this afternoon shows a
well defined and intensifying Hurricane Helene across the Gulf of
Mexico blifting north towards the Florida Panhandle. Downstream of
Helene, impressive moisture advection is persisting on
strengthening SE flow around the hurricane, driving PWs to as high
as 2.5" as measured by GPS, which is above the daily record for
the central FL Panhandle and into southern GA. This exceptionally
moist air is pivoting northward into an area of intense deep layer
ascent driven via strong mid-level divergence overlapping the
diffluent RRQ of a northward arcing jet streak. Additionally, a
cold front draped from northern GA into the Gulf of Mexico is
helping to produce focused moisture convergence along which heavy
rain rates will train. 24-hr MRMS rainfall across this region has
been generally 4-8" with locally as much as 12", and ongoing
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are producing MRMS FLASH unit streamflow
responses as high as 300-500 cfs/smi. Flash flooding is currently
ongoing.

During the next several hours, moisture north of Helene will
continue to surge northward and impinge into a region of focused
ascent from the central FL Panhandle to as far north as Atlanta,
GA. This will likely result in both an expansion and
intensification of rainfall, with rates potentially peaking around
3"/hr in stronger convection, although will more commonly be
1-2"/hr. The strengthening 850mb inflow will not only enhance
moisture transport, resulting in stronger moisture convergence
onshore and into the front, but also cause Corfidi vectors to
become anti-parallel to the flow near the Gulf Coast, merging
towards parallel along the front. This suggests increased
backbuilding and training of echoes within spiraling and
convergent convective clusters, and the HREF neighborhood
probabilities indicate a 30-60% chance for 3" from the Forgotten
Coast of FL northward along the front into central GA, while the
WoFS confines the highest probabilities to the FL Panhandle where
locally 4-5" is possible.

This rain will be occurring atop soils that are fully saturated
from heavy 24-hr rainfall,. This is reflected by NASA SPoRT 0-10cm
RSM that is above 85%, and resultant 3-hr FFG as low as 0.75-1.5".
This will likely be exceeded in many areas, and where the heaviest
rates train across the most vulnerable soils, especially in the
vicinity of Apalachicola, resultant impacts will become
significant even before Helene's landfall later this evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_7khhClvHcPtlBSpgtOfIakkpGRxqIeRTsrNUjQnq9y-bUW8tULnGe2DZ7IL5tEjAiGA= -rrTUb2Xp09nXL4SOToL8Us$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34078422 33438374 32898324 32088278 31858354=20
31248398 30698390 30068403 29838433 29528491=20
29678553 30278618 31508624 33388549 34058495=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262036
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-270230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...North Georgia, Western Carolinas into Virginia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262034Z - 270230Z

Summary...Swaths of heavy rain rates ahead of Helene will continue
through this evening over portions of north Georgia and the
western Carolinas into Southwest Virginia, including mainly the
eastern side of the Southern Appalachians. Rainfall rates of
1-2"/hr will continue, which through repeating rounds could
produce 2-3" of rain and local maxima of 5" through 02Z. This will
enhance flash flooding, with significant impacts
continuing/expanding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic late this afternoon shows
continued swaths of heavy rain over north Georgia and western SC
with continued enhancements of rainfall over the eastern slopes of
the Southern Appalachians. This is associated with a pronounced
moisture plume streaming north from Hurricane Helene which is now
west of Tampa Bay. PWs within this moisture plume have been are
2.25 to 2.5" with southeasterly flow of 20 to 35kt over central
GA/SC expected to shift over the southern Appalachians over the
next couple hours. Instability remains limited, 200 to 500 J/kg of
MUCAPE, but deep layer ascent is impressive. Mid-level divergence
between Helene and a pronounced upper low remaining over far
western TN is combining with a nearly stationary poleward arcing
jet streak from AL to KY with favorable right entrance dynamics
over the region. In this environment, recent rainfall rates are
estimated from KGSP and KFFC as up to 1.5"/hr which can be
expected to continue through the evening. There is a notable gap
in reflectivity over southeast GA and north FL Peninsula between
bands, which should provide relief over the next few hours for
southern portions of this outlook area.

The impressive moisture advection combining with nearly unchanging
robust ascent will result in continuous rainfall into areas that
have already received 4 to 10" in the past 24 hours. This rainfall
occurring atop saturated soils, sensitive terrain, and ongoing
flash flooding with further enhanced impacts across the region
which is still prior to the actual intense rainfall from Helene
herself. This additional rainfall should quickly result in further life-threatening flash flooding.

Locally catastrophic rainfall impacts are expected overnight as
the core of Helene approaches, so please pay attention to further
discussions and see the latest info on Helene at hurricanes dot
gov.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4xwbFyCSaIjD0lOy9jJCTMDNq9YO2viUOiTuIBxURGuk_Fhpm3Sj8GErapO0FTqetHEF= PrhSeHGWTzeYUwxBWij4zk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36978187 36798079 35098067 33848074 32548124=20
33028323 33988422 34478481 35358494 35808371=20
36188283 36578241=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262308
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-270500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
707 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...Florida Big Bend well up into Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262305Z - 270500Z

Summary...Hurricane Helene will make landfall late this evening
along the Florida Big Bend with inner bands progressing up Georgia
and converging on a stationary front over eastern AL. The eyewall
will impact the Big Bend area 02 to 05Z which will include heavy
rainfall that will exacerbate the extreme impacts from wind and
storm surge there.

Discussion...
GOES-E IR imagery and regional NEXRAD here at 23Z depict a well
defined eye on Helene with a central dense overcast extending into
Apalachee Bay. Outer bands extend north through the Atlanta metro
with a sharp cutoff on the west side on the stationary front that
is just into AL. Extreme moisture advection persists ahead of
Helene on ever strengthening cyclonic flow with 2.5"+ PW in the
inner core of the storm. This exceptionally moist air continues to
pivot northward into an area of intense deep layer ascent driven
via strong mid-level divergence overlapping the diffluent right
entrance portion of a northward arcing jet streak over northern
AL.

Continuous rainfall with rates around 1"/hr will persist ahead of
Helene with embedded areas of 2"/hr in the heaviest bands through
midnight. Training of these rates will result in widespread
additional rainfall of 2-3" by midnight. A corridor of 3 to 6"
along and west of the eyewall, which includes Tallahassee, is
forecast through 05Z by the 20Z HRRR which seems reasonable given
the increasing forward speed of the hurricane. The area southwest
of Tallahassee which has seen 6-10" over the past 24hrs is progged
to be just west this eyewall maxima through 04Z.

Expect flooding concerns to continue in the Atlanta metro this
evening with the additional couple inches. However, the greater
threat for Atlanta is early Friday morning as the remnant eye
passes to the east. Further details on rainfall from that will
come from overnight products.


Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Fc9ClftjhxX5P-7NSu5XVb-QG-6u58Ed4VSc4s42YzqbugDcCEmasYtyB5Pdq8iHhty= FNWtpcABnvYSl_JOUc5Za6w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34218470 33868416 32948314 31568276 30448259=20
29618275 29158322 29818392 29518483 29658539=20
30228586 30348596 31698596 32868571=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270234
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-270830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1034 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Areas affected...northeastern GA into the western Carolinas and
southwestern VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270230Z - 270830Z

Summary...Additional 1-3 inch rainfall totals, with localized 3-5
inches into the Blue Ridge Mountains, are expected through 08Z
across GA/SC/NC. Flash flooding is ongoing and will only worsen
and expand with time.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery from 0215Z showed widespread
rain across much of the southeastern U.S. but with gaps over
portions of SC in advance of an outer rain band from Helene
tracking across the southeastern SC/GA border. A combination of
MRMS and gauge reports showed peak rainfall rates ranging between
0.5 to 1.5 in/hr across the upslope favored terrain of the
southern Appalachians, specifically the Blue Ridge Mountains.

Instability remains low in the vicinity of the terrain, less than
250 J/kg (via 02Z SPC mesoanalysis data), increasing to over 1000
J/kg near the SC/GA coast. However, strong forcing, including
30-40 kt of southeasterly 925-850 mb winds (via KGSP and TCLT VAD
wind data) was favorably oriented into the mountains, beneath
divergent and diffluent flow aloft to the east of a closed low
over southeastern MO and in advance of Hurricane Helene.

No major changes to the current setup are expected through 08Z
with the core of Helene perhaps just getting into the southern
portions of the MPD threat area around 08Z. However, some increase
in instability across inland is anticipated as Helene tracks
northward overnight and an increase in the 925-850 mb wind into
the 50-70 kt range overspreads the region. Rainfall rates of 0.5
to 1.5 in/hr at times will continue with an additional 1-3 inches
for many areas from northeastern GA into central and western SC/NC
with locally 3 to 5 inch additional totals for the terrain.

These rains will continue to make for an extremely dangerous
situation later tonight as the core of Helene's rainfall arrives
later this morning, for which another MPD will be issued.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8507ghn4_OfQ0msZxABfsw7hon-pAhQj4dJCRsRRojdNrckPRvz-ZJgfoZjuT2HuVaWq= zTeXznXhxMAZ7LnLrC83l1s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36968025 36658015 36228066 34778055 33538070=20
32718117 32598203 32798287 33448393 34458474=20
35228414 36048240 36758121=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270526
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-270845-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...northern FL into GA and far eastern AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270522Z - 270845Z

Summary...Heavy rain from Helene's inner core to track NNE across
GA through 08Z with an additional 3-5 inches through 09Z. Farther
west, an axis of heavy rain is likely to develop 06-08Z. Rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr will be common but localized rates near 3 in/hr
will be found with Helene's eyewall.

Discussion...Hurricane Helene was located just north of the FL/GA
border, about 10 miles west of VLD, moving toward the NNE with an
average 3-hr speed of ~28 kt calculated via hourly NHC position
updates through 05Z. Radar imagery showed the heaviest rain
located in the northern eyewall, while rain was considerably
lighter in the southern semicircle of Helene's inner core. A
second band of heavy rain was located northwest of the eyewall,
pivoting over ABY to just east of TLH with training from NNE to
SSW supporting increasing rainfall rates over the past hour. While
accurate ground truth is difficult to assess along the path of a
landfalling hurricane, MRMS-derived hourly rainfall has been
between 1-3 inches over the past 3 hours to the north of Helene
while waves of higher rainfall intensity have overspread central
to northwestern GA with rainfall rates occasionally peaking above
1 in/hr.

Helene is expected to maintain a similar forward speed and track
through 08Z with the core of the heaviest rain, associated with
Helene's eyewall, tracking NNE across east-central GA. Rainfall
rates of 1-3 in/hr are likely but with 15-minute rates of 0.5 to 1
inch, leading to the rapid accumulation of water on the surface.
This will especially be true as this path will take some of
Helene's highest rainfall rates across a stripe of 5-8 inches
which is estimated to have fallen in a stripe from near Dublin, GA
to just west of Augusta over the past 24 hours.

Farther west, low level convergence along an axis near or just
east of the AL/GA border is expected to enhance rainfall intensity
in the 07-09Z time frame. It is here where easterly winds of 30-50
kt in the 925-850 mb layer will meet and converge with northerly
to NNW winds over eastern AL. Mean steering flow oriented similar
to the expected axis of convergence will allow for rainfall rates
of 1-2 in/hr to develop later this morning, along with areas of
flash flooding where these higher rates overlap with heavy rain
which has fallen over the past 24-48 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-dMr0O-UIluqAyzpaY-o-LBoOGwkGEzXvhFtHGLzx9FBfZHrYr_um9N-tU_9d-CsWFaZ= jHhucZ022GapPFymvOYJtJY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...HUN...JAX...MRX...
OHX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35428610 35328552 34728498 34258438 34158318=20
33508200 32108176 31148206 30428267 30208366=20
30498471 31228523 33048573 34658633=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270847
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-271430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1073...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Corrected for typo in summary section

Areas affected...northeastern GA into western SC/NC and
southwestern VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270830Z - 271430Z

SUMMARY...Severe to catastrophic flash flooding will be likely for
portions of western SC/NC this morning. Additional rainfall totals
of 4 to 7 inches, at least locally through 14Z, will pose a threat
to life with potential for landslides due to saturated soils and
swollen rivers/creeks.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene was located over eastern GA at 08Z,
just north of Eastman, tracking rapidly toward the NNE between
25-30 kt over the past 6 hours. Water vapor imagery showed Helene
interacting with a closed upper level low over northeastern AR,
which is expected to cause the hurricane to turn toward the
northwest later this morning. Recent trends in infrared satellite
imagery showed some cloud top warming with Helene, indicative of
weakening, but Helene remained a large and powerful tropical
system with a symmetric appearance in colder cloud tops.

925-850 mb winds were strongest to the east of Helene, with VAD
wind data at KCLX showing 80-90 kt, with area VAD winds showing
50-70 kt from the western NC/SC border into northeastern GA.
Gradual weakening of these winds is expected over the next 3-6
hours and the quick northward motion will at least limit the
duration of extreme moist ascent into the terrain but a
significant duration of high rainfall rates is still anticipated
into portions of the Blue Ridge. As Helene continues its northward
track, expect rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr to expand northward with
potential for some terrain locations to see 2-4 hours of rainfall
rates near/above 1 in/hr.

Estimated rainfall totals (via multi-sensor MRMS output) showed 6
to 12+ inches of rain have fallen over the past 48 hours from
northeastern GA into western SC/NC along the southeast facing
slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Areas of flash flooding are
already ongoing and widespread across the region and an additional
4 to 7 inches (locally) through 14Z is expected to produce severe
to catastrophic levels of flash flooding with potential for
landslides and threats to life and property. Experimental WoFS
data from 07Z showed the probability of exceeding 5 inches through
13Z to be 70+ percent in eastern Yancey County and 40+ percent in
southern Haywood County (both in western NC) where upslope
enhancement is expected to be maximized due to terrain influences.
This is a high confidence forecast and there is strong model
support for the location of heaviest rainfall over the next 6
hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-99ZlzKPoaY5oreX2caTIot_Hou5qjA2r3pym3ovkclWo7KpD6tZRnoLlqWy6L6D9NrN= xVrOfCbZGYn5ZXsTvqcKFB4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36918091 36708038 35898033 34948050 34238069=20
32818146 32448197 32538252 32798296 33168308=20
33918302 34638360 35238396 35928289 36668161=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270932
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-271530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...northwestern GA into northeastern AL and Middle
TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270930Z - 271530Z

SUMMARY...A pivoting axis of heavy rain is expected to focus a
threat for flash flooding from northwestern GA into northeastern
AL and Middle TN this morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr,
highest to the south and east, are likely with additional rainfall
of 2-4 inches through 15Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 09Z showed Tropical Storm
Helene's inner core tracking northward toward the central SC/GA
border. Bands of heavy rain also extended west of the center of
circulation into portions of western GA, northeastern AL and
Middle TN. MRMS and gauge data showed rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0
in/hr for most areas west of Helene, but localized rain rates of
1-2 in/hr were estimated via MRMS to the northeast of CSG where
locally higher instability (up to 500 J/kg) was present via 09Z
SPC mesoanalysis data. However, instability values into TN were
quite low at or below 250 J/kg. The bands of heavy rain from
western GA into the tri-state region of GA/AL/TN appeared to be
associated with a low level axis of convergence, centered in the
925-850 mb layer between strong easterly winds to the north of
Helene and northwesterly winds in eastern AL.

Despite the lack of greater instability, strong low level
convergence was present within a very moist airmass characterized
by precipitable water values of 2 inches in Middle TN, increasing
to over 2.5 inches in west-central GA. In addition, water vapor
imagery revealed a diffluent flow pattern aloft across the region.
RAP forecasts show the low level convergence axis slowly pivoting
cyclonically about a point near the tri-state region (GA/AL/TN)
through 15Z with southeasterly steering flow aligned with the
convergence axis at times, which will allow for repeating and
training areas of heavy rain. Due to the limited instability in
place, rainfall rates may struggle to climb above 1 in/hr across
northwestern locations, but a semi-longer duration heavy rainfall
event is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain in a 6 hour
period from portions of Middle TN into northeastern AL and
northwestern GA. Flash flooding is considered likely, especially
in northwestern GA where some areas of flash flooding are ongoing
due to recent heavy rain from Helene.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7AYmDCoLBC9MuXMcaVEpzMGmk5cgMJautne6I2glSen1g0lOTdHbzVKLrFnQ4YhMkl7y= ZfoQhJA-U90jAr7Ic9iKQlI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36528620 36188562 35438513 34358387 33988352=20
33438330 32758353 32688457 33558577 34798679=20
36038742 36488722=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270834
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-271430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...northeastern GA into western SC/NC and
southwestern VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270830Z - 271430Z

SUMMARY...Severe to catastrophic flash flooding will be likely for
portions of western SC/TN this morning. Additional rainfall totals
of 4 to 7 inches, at least locally through 14Z, will pose a threat
to life with potential for landslides due to saturated soils and
swollen rivers/creeks.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene was located over eastern GA at 08Z,
just north of Eastman, tracking rapidly toward the NNE between
25-30 kt over the past 6 hours. Water vapor imagery showed Helene
interacting with a closed upper level low over northeastern AR,
which is expected to cause the hurricane to turn toward the
northwest later this morning. Recent trends in infrared satellite
imagery showed some cloud top warming with Helene, indicative of
weakening, but Helene remained a large and powerful tropical
system with a symmetric appearance in colder cloud tops.

925-850 mb winds were strongest to the east of Helene, with VAD
wind data at KCLX showing 80-90 kt, with area VAD winds showing
50-70 kt from the western NC/SC border into northeastern GA.
Gradual weakening of these winds is expected over the next 3-6
hours and the quick northward motion will at least limit the
duration of extreme moist ascent into the terrain but a
significant duration of high rainfall rates is still anticipated
into portions of the Blue Ridge. As Helene continues its northward
track, expect rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr to expand northward with
potential for some terrain locations to see 2-4 hours of rainfall
rates near/above 1 in/hr.

Estimated rainfall totals (via multi-sensor MRMS output) showed 6
to 12+ inches of rain have fallen over the past 48 hours from
northeastern GA into western SC/NC along the southeast facing
slopes of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Areas of flash flooding are
already ongoing and widespread across the region and an additional
4 to 7 inches (locally) through 14Z is expected to produce severe
to catastrophic levels of flash flooding with potential for
landslides and threats to life and property. Experimental WoFS
data from 07Z showed the probability of exceeding 5 inches through
13Z to be 70+ percent in eastern Yancey County and 40+ percent in
southern Haywood County (both in western NC) where upslope
enhancement is expected to be maximized due to terrain influences.
This is a high confidence forecast and there is strong model
support for the location of heaviest rainfall over the next 6
hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6BXGboausFe1dFHEiggLoycQfFYguQddmc1l6ql4tPcwOUxq0f4KHkNLNTZrwJ9HZ-Kg= OZrLR79MqaNqyDooGeKqodo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36918091 36708038 35898033 34948050 34238069=20
32818146 32448197 32538252 32798296 33168308=20
33918302 34638360 35238396 35928289 36668161=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271006
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-271600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1075
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
605 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...coastal/eastern SC into central/southern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271004Z - 271600Z

SUMMARY...Possible training and repeating of heavy rain associated
with Tropical Storm Helene could produce localized flash flooding
from central to coastal SC into central/southern NC through 16Z.
The potential for 1-3 in/hr rainfall rates will exist.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 0950Z showed an outer rain
band to the east of T.S. Helene focusing from the offshore waters
of SC across the Charleston metro into central SC. Numerous cells
were observed to be repeating across the region with brief
training supporting MRMS-derived rainfall rates occasionally over
1 in/hr. These cells were located with a very moist environment
(2.3 to 2.6 inch precipitable water values) and MLCAPE of 500-1500
J/kg via the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis.

As Helene continues a northward to an eventual northwestward
motion this morning, bands of heavy rain on the east side of
Helene are expected to advance northward up the coast into the Pee
Dee region and eventually central to southern NC. A general
progressive motion is expected to these cells, but periods of
stalling will be possible with the rainfall axis which could
support locally higher rainfall rates, with 2-3 in/hr not out of
the question. Some overlap of these rain bands with an axis of 2-5
inches which impacted locations between CHS and MYR toward FLO.
Additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches will be possible through
16Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8x45YJlt0BreI5eIeMsUFdDZTZJZFP1Q8DnSl9-9XX9ACV5zepE0nuWTD07znH416Jdk= ft-ka-X-eARSPPMyxZlhbyE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35667896 35087808 34027782 33397861 32557929=20
32387970 32918039 34138092 35428010=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271313
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-271810-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1076
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
913 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...Upstate SC, western NC, far northeastern TN,
southwest VA, and southern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 271310Z - 271810Z

SUMMARY...Life-threatening flash flooding and the likelihood of
catastrophic impacts to continue across much of the southern
Appalachians through at least early this afternoon with an
additional 2-4" of rain.

DISCUSSION...The center of Tropical Storm Helene is racing
northward and entering Upstate SC as of 1245Z. Along with it
resides an area of 2-3" per hour rainfall rates (via MRMS) in what
is the leftovers of a northern eyewall over western NC. Peak
3-hourly rainfall observations from NWS/AWOS/ARL sites also
confirm these amounts. This torrential rainfall is occurring over
a region that has experienced widespread rainfall amounts of 5-12"
over the last 24 hours, making for a particularly dangerous and life-threatening situation as ground conditions are already
oversaturated and FFGs remain extremely low. Flash flooding is
ongoing and will likely continue/worsen over at least the next few
hours across western NC.

A large area of 60-80 kt southeasterly 850mb winds per the 11z RAP
on the eastern periphery of Helene are leading to an extremely
favorable upslope enhancement across western NC orthogonal to the
Blue Ridge/southern Appalachians, along with record-breaking PWs
(per the NAEFS ESAT) in the 2-2.5" range surging northward. This
along with nearby MUCAPE values of 500 J/kg advecting northeast
and wet bulb zero heights above 14k feet (near the daily record
for GSO per SPC's sounding climo) will allow for warm rain
processes.

The only positive news is that Helene continues to race north at
30 mph (per NHC) and lead to a quick exit of this extreme
rainfall, with intense rates ending across Upstate SC first by 14Z
and western NC by around 16Z. However, this region will also take
the brunt of the tropical moisture surge and the highest
additional totals. Heavy rain will slide northward as it exits the
western Carolinas and impact regions of southwest VA and southern
WV with rainfall rates of 1-2" per the 06z HREF through 19-20Z.
This region also remains mostly saturated after 1-3" of rain over
the past 24 hours.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ecx4mCqBJ8EKCSwJa6MWjyHZvbUGxePGOkFskfSW7xeiBJZ65S7AMiTPU4I3Bz9-hEq= Nh3RMBfd1a3mcT0f0UD9Fhw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37928066 37767976 37107967 35968032 35158118=20
34928231 35008318 35328353 36048310 36828245=20
37678156=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271804
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-272300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1078
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...Lower Ohio Valley into the Appalachians of
WV/VA/NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271802Z - 272300Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing around Tropical
Storm Helene will train to the NW through the afternoon. Rainfall
rates as high as 1.5"/hr are likely, which through this training
could produce 1-3" of rain. Additional flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows an
expansive area of rainfall from the MS VLY eastward into the
coastal Mid-Atlantic states. This precipitation shield is
associated with the interaction of Tropical Storm Helene and an
upper low centered near western TN. Drier air noted in WV imagery
being ingested into Helene is impinging into an axis of higher
boundary layer theta-e air over NC, driving local ascent to help
to reinvigorate convection within this moist plume. PWs measured
by GPS are generally 1.9 to 2.4 inches, nearing daily records,
with U/A soundings featuring deep moist-adiabatic lapse rates to
support efficient warm-rain processes. Instability is severely
limited west of the Appalachians as noted via the SPC RAP
analysis, but a ribbon of MLCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg over NC is
slowly advecting westward on impressive 850mb SE inflow of 40-50
kts.

The evolution the next few hours is somewhat uncertain across this
region due to CAM disagreement, but the models appear to be
under-analyzing the current convective regeneration along the
theta-e gradient across NC. This suggests that the overlap of
ascent and thermodynamics is still robust, and sufficient to drive
new convection to the NW through the aftn. The pronounced 850mb
inflow should help advect the higher instability NW as well, which
will support an expansion of rain rates which the HREF
neighborhood probabilities suggest have a 20-40% chance of
exceeding 1"hr at times. Mean storm motions will remain
progressive on 0-6km winds of around 40 kts, but the accompanying
850mb wind evolution will also result in collapsing and veering
Corfidi vectors to become more anti-parallel to the flow
indicating an increased potential for backbuilding and training.
While the CAMs disagree on the greatest risk area for heavy
rainfall this aftn, there is a 90% chance for 1"+ and 10-30%
chance for 3+" of rain in both the HREF and REFS ensembles where
the most pronounced training occurs.

Much of this area has seen heavy rainfall the past 24-hrs reaching
1-2" in the lower OH VLY and as much as 4-6" in SW VA. This
suggests that the most vulnerable soils will remain in the terrain
of the Appalachians of WV/VA and far eastern KY, but even into the
OH VLY 3-hr FFG has fallen to around 1.5", and HREF FFG
probabilities indicate a 20-50% chance of exceeding these values.
While the greatest risk for flash flood impacts will be in the
Appalachians atop the most saturated soils, any training could
cause flash flooding into the evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4omrvPxFtolww6G2BzTDPQAYMxMUGNsW76EE3xIbu6Wu_zyaBoWT_l1x4nLoC3RZAmDM= TUoM0yEMkXX8UP1QWgWlX4c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILN...JKL...LMK...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39508400 39448269 39058161 38338063 37347964=20
36577943 36027944 35767998 35838043 36218101=20
36748170 37198252 37818367 38168437 38278454=20
38588491 39098472=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272131
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-280201-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1079
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Areas affected...Southeast VA, eastern MD, far southern DE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272130Z - 280201Z

Summary...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms with 2-3"/hr rain
rates continue to lift northward this evening. Through training,
these rates could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this evening shows a
cluster of thunderstorms lifting northward out of far northeast
North Carolina towards Richmond and as far north as the Middle
Peninsula of VA. These thunderstorms are lifting northward on mean
0-6km winds of around 40 kts, so remain progressive, but are
containing MRMS measured hourly rainfall accumulations of 2-2.5
inches. These impressive rain rates are being fueled by an axis of
tropical moisture characterized by PWs of 2-2.4 inches, above the
daily maximum for the region according to the SPC sounding
climatology, funneling northward around the periphery of what is
now Post-T.C. Helene over Kentucky. An axis of SBCAPE exceeding
500 J/kg is collocated with this PW plume, providing rich
thermodynamics to support continued convection as ascent persists
through 850mb wind convergence, modest upper jet diffluence, and a
weak shortwave impulse rotating within the flow. This heavy rain
has already resulted CREST unit streamflow responses above 500
cfs/smi, leading to multiple active FFWs.

The high-res CAMs differ in their evolution the next few hours,
but the latest NAMNest appears to be handling the current
convective activity the best, followed by the recent run of the
HRRR which has caught onto to the eastward shift. These runs
suggest convection will persist as it heads north, but will begin
to encounter weaker instability into MD/DE. Some of this will be
offset by thermodynamic advection as low level 850mb inflow pushes
higher PW and instability to the north, but in general this should
result in a slow wane of the intensity of this convection. This is
reflected as well both by HRRR 15-min rainfall accumulations and
HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1-hr rainfall exceeding 1"
peaking around 20%. However, as propagation vectors veer to become
more aligned into the more rich thermodynamics, this could result
in short-term backbuilding and training to lengthen the duration
of these rain rates leading to corridors of rainfall that could
reach 2-3" in some areas.

As long as the intense rain rates persist, they will pose a risk
for flash flooding. However, much of eastern MD and DE has been
dry recently, leading to elevated FFG that only has a 5-10% chance
of being exceeded. This suggests the greatest risk for any impacts
will be across SE VA, or where any training can move across an
urban area through the evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!58W3cin_F4YkP2J__5_J-CiJOa7wa4Omsm_-6tOtquI9E3w5FH3fx4cjnChviSZyme61= z-NO63IO2h5zNFfqtn0m3WA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38937572 38847530 38727506 38427502 38047501=20
37617524 37267557 36987568 36677580 36407595=20
36147616 36107656 36277695 36557747 37127763=20
37707746 38437693 38827659 38927623=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281521
FFGMPD
FLZ000-281930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1080
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1120 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Areas affected...Southwest Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281520Z - 281930Z

SUMMARY...Training convection tracking northeast into the west
coast of Florida is producing rates to 2.5 inches per hour. Flash
flooding is possible, especially in urban areas.

DISCUSSION... The remnant trailing front behind Helene is nearly
stationary across central Florida this morning. Localized
convergence zones have developed within the broader frontal
boundary that have been forcing storms that have a history of
producing rainfall rates to 2.5 inches per hour. While each
individual cell is moving along at around 20 mph, the
redevelopment of convection is resulting in multiple cells moving
across urban and flood-prone areas. PWAT values to 2.5 inches are
draped across the Ft. Myers area, with a distinct moisture
boundary over the Tampa area. SBCAPE values are over 2,500 J/kg
with MUCAPE over 3,000 J/kg already.

These very high values of both moisture and instability will
support additional thunderstorm development into the afternoon
across the Florida Gulf Coast. HiRes guidance has been variable on
how long the storms will last, but given the ample moisture and
instability both in place and will continue to be advected in from
the Gulf, it appears probable that the storms capable of heavy
rainfall rates will continue in this region. Given some of the
CAMs guidance that are struggling to depict the activity going on
right now are the drier solutions, have opted to favor the wetter
guidance such as the 12Z HRRR and ARW for the near-term forecast.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8NOzAGnQK_Ymn8rhoRarwBOyVyP5WpUO6cob4aHz_1UFaJzjVQ8Tq1Szu9-dyOnVR7_1= 6YVqY_81uO_PJibE70iu5_c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 28258185 27958140 27528123 26688140 26358172=20
26398198 26508229 27558281 27808287 28108287=20
28198256=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 291744
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-292300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1081
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
143 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Areas affected...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291743Z - 292300Z

Summary...Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will develop and
lift northward through the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr
within these cells could repeat to produce 1-3" of rainfall. This
occurring atop pre-saturated soils may result in instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
widespread light showers across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic,
with embedded convective elements beginning to blossom across
VA/WV. This convective activity is deepening in response to a
ribbon of 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE which has expanded across the
area south of a wedge front and north of a stationary front. PWs
of 1.5-1.7 inches, or above the 90th percentile according to the
SPC sounding climatology, are contributing to intensifying
thermodynamics to support this convective activity. Forcing for
ascent is additionally intensifying downstream of an upper low
over KY, with SE 850mb winds of 10-15 kts lifting isentropically
and orographically to combine with upper divergence and
diffluence.

As the aftn progresses, the high-res CAMs are in good agreement
that convective coverage will expand in response to the increasing
ascent within the favorable thermodynamics. Although coverage will
likely remain scattered, aligned Corfidi vectors and mean 0-6km
winds suggests repeating rounds of convection are likely in many
areas. These thunderstorms will likely intensify through the aftn
as well to produce rainfall rates for which both the HREF and REFS
neighborhood probabilities indicate have a 40-50% of exceeding
1"/hr, and 15-min HRRR fields indicate an isolated potential for
2"/hr rates. Despite the progressive and scattered nature of these
cells, multiple rounds lifting N/NW into the area could produce
rainfall amounts of 1-3" in some areas.

This region has been saturated recently, noted by 7-day rainfall
departures from AHPS that area in most areas 300-600% of normal.
This has led to fully saturated soils and compromised FFG that is
as low as 0.75-1.5" in 3 hours. The HREF FFG exceedance
probabilities peak as high as 70% by this evening, highest in the
vicinity of Shenandoah NP and into the Allegheny Mountains.
However, flash flooding will be possible anywhere the most intense
rates repeat atop the saturated soils or across vulnerable terrain.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5tyMelmmVF7n88FDockXczyN7XEko1ADrfkvKXVVWSxA1IUbf-vVuPhKDK20snOiGBUR= 9tFNj56tN_Y3DUjIjjnURn8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILN...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39688000 39577916 39057841 38017819 36697888=20
36398001 36428122 36648186 37068204 37588244=20
37798310 38078343 38628344 39078263 39468140=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 292251
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-300400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1082
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
651 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Areas affected...Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 292250Z - 300400Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity during the next few hours. Rainfall rates
within thunderstorms could reach 1-2"/hr, resulting in axes of
1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening indicates that
convective coverage is finally beginning to expand and intensify
across parts of Virginia. This is occurring in response to a slow
rise in favorable thermodynamics noted by the SPC RAP analysis of
SBCAPE reaching above 500 J/kg, coincident with PWs that are above
the 90th climatological percentile at 1.6-1.8 inches. Into this
overlapping moisture/instability, ascent is intensifying through
height falls and divergence downstream of an upper low positioned
over KY, topped by modest LFQ upper diffluence, and in the
presence of 15 kts of 850mb inflow out of the SE. Not only is this
inflow advecting the more robust thermodynamics northward into
VA/WV, it is also increasing ascent through convergence along the
nose of these higher wind speeds and through both isentropic and
orographic response to this wind trajectory. Rainfall rates within
the stronger convection have produced MRMS measured 1-hr rainfall
over 1 inch in southern VA.

Although the guidance has been a tad aggressive with convective
intensity this aftn, likely due to a slower increase in favorable
instability, the recent radar returns suggest this evolution is
beginning. The convection over southern VA should continue to
expand and then push N/NW on 0-6km winds that will gradually back
from SW to S at 15-20 kts through the evening. This evolution is
supported by most available high-res models, and despite the
generally progressive motion of cells, repeating rounds are likely
as storms regenerate into the stronger thermodynamics and pivot
northward. The HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1"/hr (2"/hr)
rain rates peak this evening above 60% (20%), greatest in the
higher terrain where orographic lift will enhance the rainfall
intensity. Where storms can regenerate and repeat, these rain
rates could result in 1-3" of rain, with locally higher amounts
possible as progged by 10-15% HREF/REFS neighborhood probabilities
for 5"/6hrs.

This area has been saturated with heavy rainfall that has been 3
to as much as 8 inches according to AHPS 7-day rainfall. This has
led to compromised FFG and 0-10cm RSM from NASA SPoRT that is
generally above 70%. Any heavy rain rates moving atop these
sensitive soils could quickly become runoff leading to instances
of flash flooding, but this appears most likely in the vulnerable
terrain from the Blue Ridge through the Allegheny Mountains.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Z26pDTsDC_CfmR6kII5vahQlRmluBqy0MaMUOFnwP0CYQBTTt4t8mZ2TGYj8lEUYn2B= BqWuIl_emAL9eJatlXBqRjU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 39497924 39307868 38947824 38087791 37337793=20
36797818 36617867 36577921 36697990 37368065=20
37578109 38098128 39198033=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 300414
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-301010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1083
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1213 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Areas affected...east-central VA/NC border into central VA and far
eastern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 300412Z - 301010Z

Summary...Heavy rain showers are expected to maintain a flash
flood threat for portions of VA into WV over at least the next 3-6
hours. Rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr are expected, overlapping
with wet antecedent grounds.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0345Z showed an axis of
showers extending from the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains
in central VA, southeastward to the east-central VA/NC border
between I-85 and I-95. These showers were warm-topped, only -5 to
-15C on "clean channel" infrared imagery with collision and
coalescence processes dominating and have been rather efficient
despite the fact that the bulk of the available instability is
weak and limited to the 0-6 km AGL layer (via 00Z RNK/IAD and RAP
analysis soundings). MLCAPE was only a few hundred J/kg but
precipitable water values were estimated via 03Z SPC mesoanalysis
data to be 1.6 to 1.9 inches. It appears low level convergence
(925-850 mb) was playing a role in the location of these showers
with some degree of isentropic/orographic ascent aiding in lift.

Short term forecasts of instability from the RAP indicate only
gradual weakening and low level convergence of southeasterly winds
to slowly shift north over the next 3-6 hours. Rainfall rates have
been observed locally over 2 in/hr and similar potential will
exist overnight with slow moving and repeating showers likely to
continue, though some weakening should be expected where
instability is lower or decreases with time.

Much of the area still contains lower flash flood guidance due to
wet antecedent conditions due to rainfall over the past week.
Therefore, while perhaps not widespread in coverage, at least a
localized flash flood threat will be likely to continue into the
night with rainfall rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr at times. Additional
storm totals may exceed 3 inches on an isolated basis.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7HhKlGoGFEHs219g6UzHep1ggd8hE1jfE2QHhsckvMD8v7RBCZ8qXVJORjQlUqtAZbw8= AYb6HvN_FyW-RLQDqXT4DI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38757826 38247779 37147703 36477710 36337764=20
36437820 37157878 37297994 37728022 38337988=20
38737935=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050907
FFGMPD
TXZ000-051500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1089
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
507 AM EDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Areas affected...Deep South Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050910Z - 051500Z

SUMMARY...Persistent highly saturated, unstable onshore flow may
support periods of scattered efficient showers/thunderstorms
capable of 2-2.5"/hr rates and localized 3"+ totals. Given
recently wetted grounds, additional intense rainfall may result in
possible flash flooding this morning.

DISCUSSION...Large scale cyclonic gyre centered in southern Gulf
of Mexico/Western Bay of Campeche has seen a persistent convective
flare up throughout the evening. The broader easterly to
northeasterly flow has been persistent through the overnight
period and brought some transistory but intense tropical
showers/thunderstorms across Deep South Texas. The solid 15-20kts
of onshore surface to boundary layer flow has been transporting
.95-1.1" precipitable water in that layer per CIRA LPW. RAP
analysis shows small surface heating over 80F over high 70s Tds
and fairly saturated deep moisture profile to support unstable air
with SBCAPEs of 1500-2500 J/kg to support stronger updraft
strength and further vertical moisture flux to support efficient
rainfall production. Rates of 2-2.5"/hr will remain probable
throughout the morning, much as as they have for the last 6 hours
or so. Spots of up to 1.5-3" have been observed between Bayview
and Harlingen matching RADAR estimates, so values higher to the
northeast over Laguna Madre and S Kenedy county nearing 4-5" seem
plausible.=20

The area has been fairly dry and FFG values suggest that this
rainfall was able to be infiltrated fairly well, but now upper
soil profiles from this 1-3" total will have reduced FFG values
which are in the 2-3"/hr, 2.5-4"/3hr should be lowered. Over the
next six hours, the environment will remain very similar and
GOES-E 3.9um SWIR shows upstream shallow convective roll-clouds
moving through the northeasterly flow in the NE Gulf that start to
grow vertically near the coast given enhanced frictional speed
convergence. As such, similar transient thunderstorms with
2-2.5"/hr rates capable of 3-5" localized totals may continue
through the later morning hours, especially as low level flow may
increase under influence of the stregthening convective
cluster/surface reflection east of Tampico, MX. Winds may back a
bit more out of the NE, enhancing convective potential across E
Willacy and Cameron counties. HREF probability of exceeding 3" by
15z are 40-60% with 5" values near 25%. So with each passing
convective cell, the potential for localized flash flooding
increases slightly as longer term totals reach/exceed 5",
especially near urban locales.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8hmTe7dJX7P45WsANlAz34Z0BUNVW0ohsrw7BXkxUm3ffxcgfVf9AbnldJupXx0P4hGD= ljLRRPxn6fZPq0eg9n7HfMk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 26789776 26749731 26409718 25979710 25819736=20
25989777 26059827 26259843 26619820=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051950
FFGMPD
FLZ000-060149-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1090
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Areas affected...portions of southern FL & the Keys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051949Z - 060149Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
showing minimal movement across southern FL. Hourly rain totals
to 3" with local totals to 6" possible over the next several hours.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are forming near sea breeze
boundaries and in the proximity to a warm front draped across
southern FL. Precipitable water values are 2.25-2.5". Low level
inflow as well as the mean 850-400 hPa flow is weak, which is
leading to minimal movement to activity across the southern tip of
the peninsula and southwest FL. Other activity lurks near the
Middle and Upper Keys. ML CAPE is approaching 2000 J/kg which is
being aided by afternoon insolation.

The concern is that with minimal cell movement that amounts which
were seen south of Florida City and west of Key Largo could
materialize across southwest FL and the Keys through the remainder
of the afternoon into the early evening, with radar estimates near
6". Areas of the West Coast in particular have been especially
wet this year with large, in places 20"+, annual surpluses.=20
Rainfall over the past week has continued this theme between Cape
Coral and Naples. Hourly rain totals to 3" with local totals to
6" remain possible into this evening, which could lead to flash
flooding of urban areas and important thoroughfares, such as US 1,
US 41, and I-75.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6wdggIxSWYv3WcBR5q0w5nDqxxgfUIsmbL4f_hRw6b-Am8lGnS7fQmlk98a0wghrMSF0= uW4BKvJe9iD1atTC6dfHMr8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 26888208 26508120 25408019 25008035 24708113=20
26428217=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061440
FFGMPD
FLZ000-062030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1091
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1039 AM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Areas affected...Southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061439Z - 062030Z

Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour are showing minimal movement
across portions of South Florida. Localized rainfall totals up to
5 inches are possible through 430 pm, and this will likely result
in some instances of flooding.

Discussion...Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forming near
sea breeze boundaries and in the general proximity of a stationary
front situated across southern Florida late this morning, and also
ahead of a mid-level vortmax that is slowly approaching the
southwest coast of Florida. Anomalous precipitable water values
on the order of 2.3 to 2.6 inches are in place, per recent SPC
mesoanalysis. Another concern is the very slow cell movements
that have been observed by regional Doppler radar imagery over the
past several hours, and this will likely remain the case going
into the afternoon hours, with weak low level inflow and mean
850-300 hPa flow. In addition, mixed layer CAPE is on the order
of 1500-2000 J/kg, which is being aided by midday solar insolation.

The latest CAM guidance suite depicts an increase in slow moving
convection across the southern half of the Florida Peninsula
through the mid-late afternoon hours, with localized rainfall
totals on the order of 4 to 6 inches possible. Areas of the West
Coast have picked up a few inches of rain over the past 24 hours,
and this also holds true for areas near and to the south of Miami,
and this will be an aggravating factor for flooding potential
today. Hourly rain totals to 3 inches are possible, which will
likely lead to some instances of flash flooding for urban and poor
drainage areas.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4DwTbjyxM4wmD9Fetm4TQTSU7ZNS27xGAeZ5caSE9IDroOxcn-Jbfodt26kOvWnlfg2l= eSHVU7Mf1JUsviG94L0gvk0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27728071 27568016 26987993 26117990 25518007=20
25088030 24818064 25048121 25608163 26128211=20
26528230 26938256 27188265 27228266 27428259=20
27428213 27308167 27388128=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070313
FFGMPD
FLZ000-070900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1092
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1113 PM EDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Areas affected...Southern Peninsular Florida and the Upper Keys...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070315Z - 070900Z

SUMMARY...Approaching surface frontal wave with bands of warm
advective tropical showers/thunderstorms capable of 2-2.5"/hr
rates and spots of 3-5" totals along the coasts may pose localized
urban rapid inundation flooding through overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9um SWIR depicts a few boundary layer swirls
of Cu and TCu across the eastern Gulf of Mexico (main one near
25.8N 85.5W) with the frontal/convergence boundary extending
eastward to just offshore of S Sarasota county before paralleling
the SW Coast through the central Keys. VWP and RADAR mosaic
suggests a 925-850mb wave in proximity of Naples, pressing
eastward. This is spurring an increase in low level southwesterly
flow and warm advection from the Florida Channel and enhancing
convergence with new deepening convection through the central Keys
starting to arch northeastward. Relative maxima in low level
instability and available moisture along/ahead of this band are
running about 2000-2500 J/kg SBCAPE and 1.05-1.25" per CIRA LPW
values. This will allow for solid low level moisture loading for
intense tropical rain showers and be capable of an easy 2-3"/hr
rain rate, but translation/duration will be critical to pose
flooding problems.

As the aforementioned wave crosses southern FL, WAA and
southwesterly flow is expected to lift north and replace the band.
Deeper layer (700-500mb) flow appears to suggest weak ridging to
delay or allow the wave to pivot across the Everglades while the
band lifts north. This will bring stronger cells along/through
areas of Miami-Dade with those high rates through the next few
hours. There is potential the band will slow and increase
duration near the pivoting wave over the urban corridor and
present increasing duration of heavier rainfall totals with 3-5".=20
HREF probability of 40-80% of 3" and 30-50% of 5" remains across
the southern tip and up the east coast to Palm Beach county.=20=20
Given a secondary boundary/theta-e gradient is also connected to
a prior wave/WAA exists resulting in localized frictional
convergence across Broward county lifting north potentially adding
to/expanding the risk area of potential 3-5" totals by 09z. Given
proximity to urban/flat and some already saturated areas, rapid
inundation flooding may occur locally with these cells through the
overnight period and is considered possible.

Along the SW FL coast...
The potential for excessive rainfall/higher totals, is diminished
slightly compared to the SE FL coast as cells are more likely to
reside along/just offshore through the overnight period. However,
there remains solid convergence along the southeast angled frontal
zone to support similar cells from Manatee to Lee/Charlotte county
and with limited cell motions, so though the cells are likely to
remain just offshore, there remains some potential for 2-2.5"/hr
rates but could result in slightly higher overall totals if they
sneak ashore.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_7cGQdvrEw7ej5aqDEy8Z5IxL-XzFWS6mFU4daM6-UoumjKkf6Lm_uXSparPF6aTtcP= 87H0kDMJREFSlW_QoFuAcN4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27228016 26577992 25867999 25218020 24738081=20
24798129 25718143 25828178 26208193 26538231=20
26988253 27178260 27198225 26408162 26028113=20
26028075 26568050 27178040=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071738
FFGMPD
FLZ000-072300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1093
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
137 PM EDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Areas affected...southern FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071735Z - 072300Z

Summary...Slow moving and training thunderstorms will pose a flash
flood risk for southern FL through 22Z. Due to the environment,
rainfall rates will easily have the potential for 2-3 in/hr, and
may even exceed 3 in/hr on a localized basis.

Discussion...While the exact placement is a little uncertain, 17Z
surface observations showed a quasi-stationary front extending
southwestward into Palm Beach County, through the northern
Everglades before curving westward into the eastern Gulf near
Naples. Local 88D radar and visible satellite imagery showed
multiple mesoscale lows near and south of the front, while
infrared imagery showed two areas of colder cloud tops, one west
of the Lee Island Coast and the other west of the Lower Keys, that
have been progressing eastward over the past few hours. Out ahead
of these two relatively larger scale areas of lift were a couple
of slow moving cells that have recently developed over northern
Broward and southern Palm Beach counties. The environment near and
south of the front consisted of 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (highest to
southwest) and precipitable water values of approximately 2.3 to
2.5 inches via 12Z sounding and 17Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

Using the 850-300 mb layer as a proxy for storm motions, mean cell
movement will be from the SW to WSW at 10-20 kt. Similarly
oriented 850 mb winds of about the same magnitude will promote
slow moving and training of cells over the southwestern and
southeastern coasts into the Keys. Near the coast of St. Lucie and
Martin counties, low level winds were from the east just north of
a low located just above the surface (925-850 mb) where 850-300 mb
mean winds were weakest across the region at 5-10 kt. Therefore,
the northern Treasure Coast will have the potential for slow
moving to stationary cell movement near the coast given sufficient
instability in place.

Much of southern FL will see an increase in thunderstorm coverage
over the next couple of hours with potential for 2 to 3+ in/hr as
forcing increases from the west, beneath a diffluent flow pattern
in the upper levels. Flash flooding will be possible through 23Z,
but is expected to remain localized and focused across urban
corridors.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6St79PkaIYKxNPJYGEZgQtXgyMVzLF8UKjelGPZQcmv-8MCktKYgp0fK5LPEITxZGZkv= Zjt_qZH2tQSIIIiTj-GFRZ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27298033 27227985 26377972 25308004 24628070=20
24468159 24568189 24818201 25328171 26018214=20
26448225 26728193 26458152 26378109 26398077=20
26608041 27028044=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072316
FFGMPD
FLZ000-080500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1094
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
716 PM EDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Areas affected...southern FL into the Keys

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072314Z - 080500Z

Summary...There is potential for a training axis of heavy rain to
begin to impact portions of the southern FL Peninsula into the FL
Keys by 03-06Z. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr will be possible,
which may lead to flash flooding over impervious surfaces.

Discussion...23Z surface observations, radar imagery and fading
visible satellite imagery showed a quasi-stationary front
extending east to west across the southern FL Peninsula with an
apparent low on the front or at least the front aloft, located
north of Grand Bahama Island. A secondary smaller low was noted
just east of the Martin/Palm Beach County border, possibly
connected to the front at the surface or just aloft.

Low level easterly flow just north of the smaller low near the
east coast of FL was helping to support locally heavy rain near
and just east/offshore of Port Saint Lucie where a small bubble of
500 J/kg MLCAPE was estimated via the 22Z SPC mesoanalysis. The
coastal circulation may translate southward in the short term as
the larger low to the north of Grand Bahama is forecast by short
term RAP guidance to strengthen and become better organized
tonight. This strengthening should result in increased northerly
flow over the southern FL Peninsula, pushing the front southward
toward the Middle and Upper Keys by 06Z. Farther southward
progress of the front will likely be limited by southwesterly flow
to the east of yet another surface low analyzed in the eastern
Gulf near 26.4N 84.4W.

The front is expected to act as a focus for the development of
heavy rain where MLCAPE is forecast to be 1000+ J/kg along and
south of the boundary, dropping off to less than 100 J/kg to the
north. Mean steering flow should be roughly parallel to the
boundary allowing for the repeating and training of cells, with
rainfall rates possibly reaching 2 to 3+ in/hr within the tropical
environment. These rates could overlap with localized urban
centers and related impervious surfaces of the Middle/Upper Keys
leading to localized flash flooding.

Regarding the HRRR, while it has been fairly consistent with the
idea of an axis of heavy rain developing in the vicinity of
Florida Bay, the HRRR has struggled with placement of heavy rain
from earlier today and has had differences in its forecast
placement of the surface front and associated low pressure centers
leading to lower confidence in its output. While the idea of
recent HRRR cycles seems reasonable, some of its runs with 6 hr
QPF maxima of 7 to 10 inches appears overdone.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!81lBakZcqkxyAMrt_INC1yfVMaUzPP5fc9MXMIQFQ-iTJJAHBu6jBnIu54Iq8EFzB4-n= yJu8lK0_FM9l0Uikwv_NxUI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27508019 27488009 27367996 27277992 27017985=20
26607975 25927983 25387993 24768044 24468117=20
24508196 25668170 25798099 26208030 26878038=20
27248040 27418036=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080554
FFGMPD
FLZ000-081145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1095
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 AM EDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Areas affected...Florida Keys & Far Southern Florida Peninsula...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080555Z - 081145Z

SUMMARY...Favorable environment for training thunderstorms in
vicinity of Florida Keys. While hard to hit, solid potential for
2-3"/hr rates and spots of 4-6" totals. If intersecting,
accompanying rapid inundation flooding is considered possible
through morning.

DISCUSSION...Surface and remote sensing suite depicts a developing
surface low to the NW of Grand Bahama westerly winds pressing the
front off southern Florida, before the front orients flat east to
west across the Florida Bay before angling northwest along the
coast to a shearing out and retrograding low near 25.6N 83.6W.=20
VWP from BYX and AMX depict this stretching axis across the
southern peninsula with unidirectional deep layer flow supporting
a WSW to ENE training axis across the area of concern.
GOES-E SWIR and RAP winds suggest broader but confluent warm
advective low level flow regime along the spine of the Keys into
Florida Bay with ample deep layer moisture AoA 2.5" with ample low
level profile to support narrow skinny profile with solid unstable
air given values of 2000-2500 J/kg. As such the strong low level
convergence is supporting bands of developing CBs from upstream of
Dry Tortugas through the area before strongest convergence resides
just southwest of the base of the frontal zone where some sfc
southwesterly flow is at or about 15-20kts supports stronger
moisture flux convergence.=20=20

The placement of features: isallobaric response to the growing
complex in the eastern Florida Straits, retrograding low will
support continual convergence upstream redevelopment and training
profile to allow for thunderstorms to track through the Keys into
far southern Florida for the next few hours. Given ample moisture
flux, rates of 2-3"/hr are possible per Hi-Res CAMs. Solid
probability from 00z HREF suggest 3-5" suggest the training cells
have sufficient proximity to land that any intersection may result
in localized totals in short enough duration to allow for rapid inundation/urban style flooding.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9KEv30E6oKWRUEGlbTyMneIR31mCoNLL99BX_pk2BEo6xgwVKx7J-M4I1KiHtNR3L3tZ= HQo-fHdrInhoUVRv8wYDH7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 25648022 25508014 25288021 25128032 24688089=20
24518151 24528188 24708171 24938110 25078109=20
25318121 25508099 25538062=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090713
FFGMPD
FLZ000-091230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1096...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Corrected for Summary statement

Areas affected...Southwest Florida....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090700Z - 091230Z

SUMMARY...Potential for coastal training rotating thunderstorms
capable of 2.5"/hr rates and spots of 2-5" possible through
morning.

DISCUSSION...06z surface analysis along with BYX VWP and RADAR
animation shows winds have veered to more southerly and starting
to increase WAA, lifting the stalled boundary across southeast
Gulf/Florida Bay northward. Upper 70s to lower 80s temp/dewpoints
along the Florida Straits and the strengthening speed convergence
with this warm air advection is allowing for increased instability
advection northward expanding 2500+ J/kg SBCAPE values northward
along the coastal boundary.

SPC MCD and bulk shear values suggest main mode of shallow
rotating thunderstorms along this band. While mean steering flow
and approaching isallobaric influence would press cell motions
further west, rotation and right movement is generally
counteracting this influence and supporting a generally north or north-northeast cell motion for these thunderstorms allowing for a
solid potential for training development given upstream moisture
convergence in proximity of the lifting boundary and coastal
frictional convergence may allow for this.

While updrafts are narrow, the rotational flow increases speed and
directional moisture flux into the updrafts allowing for intense
low level moisture loading and therefore intense rainfall
production. Overall moisture of 2.25-2.5", though clearly loaded
in the sfc to 700mb layer will support efficient production with
hourly rates of 2-3"/hr though inner cores will likely drive the
majority of that rain in sub-hourly time frames (15-30 minutes)
further increasing the potential for rapid inundation flooding
across the flat/urban ground conditions. This is further
compounding potential issues given recent moderate to heavy
rainfall. NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture is well above normal at
70-80% capacity and generally above 95th percentile for the time
period.=20

Much of the Hi-Res guidance suite does not place this warm
advective training band ashore, but most have assimilated this
band much further west than current trends would suggestion, with
recent HRRR solutions slowly adjusting to RADAR with the 05z run
getting closest, so far. So, while the band still may align
along/just offshore with the most intense cores/training axis, the
risk for this training band crossing the urban coastal zones has
increased enough to suggest spots of 2-5", resulting in possible
localized inundation flooding through early morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!616dJne68gZ0FK_N9zgLgg56Pwl21KkvT_oB9F_yiRk3kKVe4nDWG2nubPu104knwJLI= a-9Y3lAxgViYxvDHe-_P0fk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27488254 27148203 26648165 26078099 25338037=20
25178105 25848176 26328196 26478225 27108255=20
27348270=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090700
FFGMPD
FLZ000-091230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1096
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Areas affected...Southwest Florida....

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090700Z - 091230Z

SUMMARY...Potential for coastal training rotating thunderstorms
capable of 2.5"/hr rates and spots of

DISCUSSION...06z surface analysis along with BYX VWP and RADAR
animation shows winds have veered to more southerly, increasing
starting to increase WAA, lifting the stalled boundary across
southeast Gulf/Florida Bay northward. Upper 70s to lower 80s
temp/dewpoints along the Florida Straits and the strengthening
speed convergence with this warm air advection is allowing for
increased instability advection northward expanding 2500+ J/kg
SBCAPE values northward along the coastal boundary.

SPC MCD and bulk shear values suggest main mode of shallow
rotating thunderstorms along this band. While mean steering flow
and approaching isallobaric influence would press cell motions
further west, rotation and right movement is generally
counteracting this influence and supporting a generally north or north-northeast cell motion for these thunderstorms allowing for a
solid potential for training development given upstream moisture
convergence in proximity of the lifting boundary and coastal
frictional convergence may allow for this.

While updrafts are narrow, the rotational flow increases speed and
directional moisture flux into the updrafts allowing for intense
low level moisture loading and therefore intense rainfall
production. Overall moisture of 2.25-2.5", though clearly loaded
in the sfc to 700mb layer will support efficient production with
hourly rates of 2-3"/hr though inner cores will likely drive the
majority of that rain in sub-hourly time frames (15-30 minutes)
further increasing the potential for rapid inundation flooding
across the flat/urban ground conditions. This is further
compounding potential issues given recent moderate to heavy
rainfall. NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture is well above normal at
70-80% capacity and generally above 95th percentile for the time
period.=20

Much of the Hi-Res guidance suite does not place this warm
advective training band ashore, but most have assimilated this
band much further west than current trends would suggestion, with
recent HRRR solutions slowly adjusting to RADAR with the 05z run
getting closest, so far. So, while the band still may align
along/just offshore with the most intense cores/training axis, the
risk for this training band crossing the urban coastal zones has
increased enough to suggest spots of 2-5", resulting in possible
localized inundation flooding through early morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ZhrXxQKLYOmd2Z2CcDQiyjY58k2Hra9IlNEoDNtq_WFl7MXVFPgqDvBYjqez6LiMERH= qUtWo8XjlKpl9BGDj5QMMIc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 27488254 27148203 26648165 26078099 25338037=20
25178105 25848176 26328196 26478225 27108255=20
27348270=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092331
FFGMPD
FLZ000-100445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1100
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Areas affected...north-central FL Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092328Z - 100445Z

SUMMARY...An axis of extreme rainfall, stretching from the Tampa
metropolitan region northeastward into the north-central FL
Peninsula, is expected to result in major to locally catastrophic
flash flooding with considerable threats to life and property.
6-hr rainfall totals of at least 5-8 inches with hourly rainfall
in the 2-3 in/hr range are expected.

DISCUSSION...The 23Z update from NHC placed the center of
Hurricane Milton 35 miles WSW of Sarasota, FL. Local radar imagery
at 23Z from KTBW showed the heaviest rain located within what is
effectively the northern eyewall which has pushed ashore and arced
from Manatee into southern Hillsborough and much of Pinellas
counties with MRMS and gauge data showing 1-2 in/hr rainfall
rates. Portions of St. Petersburg to Bradenton have already picked
up 5-8 inches of rain since midnight and flash flooding is
ongoing. Farther east, an outer rain band had largely moved
offshore of the eastern Peninsula but was arcing northwestward
ashore just north of Cape Canaveral with 4-8 inches already
reported across Brevard County.

An axis of strong low level convergence tied to the northern
eyewall, extending northeast from the center of Milton to Volusia
County (just north of the forecast track of Milton) will support a
prolonged period of high rainfall rates, 1-2 in/hr but locally in
the 2 to 3+ in/hr range, with the axis training from WSW to ENE
and slowly lifting north with time. Some locations could
experience rainfall rates in excess of 1 in/hr for 2-4 hours,
causing rapid rises of water above the surface as water will not
have sufficient time to drain, especially across the mostly
impervious surfaces of the St. Petersburg into the Tampa metro and
possibly nearing Orlando later tonight. Additional rainfall of at
least 5-8 inches is expected from St. Petersburg, northeastward
into the central Peninsula where the WoFS has consistently painted
high probabilities of exceeding 5 inches of rainfall. The 22Z WoFS
cycle indicated 50 to 90 percent probabilities of 5+ inches and
90th percentile (reasonable worse case scenario) values of 7-10
inches. Major to locally catastrophic flash flooding is expected
as a result of these high rainfall rates.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6gKF48B965Xqj-Jzk3hFPNzyaeldajk6aK1Bj6zQ7DDIysUYY_DgBDtRhDbDLz8puFHb= LiIRC4UVxA39mwYPAM3Wb8k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 29888111 29688103 28598054 28528063 28238143=20
27798205 27438295 27898313 28898262 29318212=20
29678163=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100434
FFGMPD
FLZ000-101045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1101
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1231 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Areas affected...portions of North-Central FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100445Z - 101045Z

Summary...Locally catastrophic flash flooding likely to continue
as Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula with
2-3"/hr rainfall rates and 3-8" additional totals.

Discussion...Hurricane Milton is progressing across the central FL
Peninsula at this hour, undergoing extratropical transition in the
process with heavy rainfall confined to the northern half of the
circulation. Convection associated with Milton remains intense,
largely due to this extratropical transition process (and the
associated strong upper-level divergence from the right entrance
region of a 140+ kt jet streak off the Northeast coast). GOES-East
infrared imagery indicates cloud top temperatures of -85deg C or
colder, along with multiple lightning strikes via the GLM
instrument. This corresponds to estimated cloud top heights of
40-50k feet (via KTBW/MRMS echo top data), and this continues to
support significant tropical rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr (with
precipitable water values at record breaking levels of 2.4-2.7
inches).

Hi-res models are in good agreement in keeping the remnant of the
northern eyewall of Milton convectively active until its emergence
over the Atlantic in the next 4-6 hours. This will bring the 50
mile wide swath of 2-3"/hr rainfall rates from the
Lakeland/Orlando metro areas northeastward into more rural
portions of the peninsula between Orlando and Jacksonville, as
well as into coastal cities such as Daytona Beach, Palm Coast, and
St. Augustine. This will result in an additional 1-3" of rainfall
in the vicinity of Lakeland/Orlando (where 6-12" of rainfall has
already fallen over the past 12 hours), and an additional 3-8"
over adjacent portions of the northeastern peninsula and coastal
cities (where 2-4" has already fallen over the past 12 hours).
Flash flooding (some locally catastrophic) will continue in the
hard-hit areas of Lakeland/Orlando, while flash flooding is likely
to continue and expand to those areas towards the northeast (which
may also experience locally significant to catastrophic flash
flooding).

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!62KuibCvgzzgD5po1BTLbB2g4j0IWIy2wowkA6k0YwjMv_2VqqCqDR6bYKIVNnn4tUjs= D56zLGZoxgxjmcl9lQ6EQ54$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30088126 29498102 28748065 28448090 28128151=20
27938209 28378240 29238219 29618188 29978159=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190512
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-191110-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Areas affected...Central to Northeast NM...South-Central CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190510Z - 191110Z

SUMMARY...A localized threat for flash flooding will develop going
through the overnight hours as greater concentrations of heavy
shower and thunderstorm activity occurs. The burn scar locations
will be most susceptible to runoff concerns.

DISCUSSION...A deep upper-level trough and associated closed low
over the Southwest U.S. will be moving very slowly down to the
southeast overnight. This will favor downstream areas of central
and eastern NM seeing an uptick deep layer ascent as divergence
aloft overspreads the region. Coinciding with this will be the
persistence of an increasingly moist southeast low-level jet of 30
to 40 kts which will be advancing up across eastern NM. The
overall PW environment currently is rather modest with PWs near
0.75 inches, but the latest CIRA-ALPW data shows a notable fetch
of moisture in the SFC-850 mb layer advancing gradually north and
west across the TX High Plains which eventually will become more
entrenched over eastern NM later tonight and Saturday morning.

MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 to 1000+ J/kg across
portions of central and eastern NM currently, and this coupled
with the deeper layer ascent and moisture transport from the TX
High Plains and Rio Grande Valley should favor a gradual increase
in the coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms. This will be
mainly focused in a southwest to northeast fashion from central to
northeast NM and to some extent over parts of south-central CO.

The latest hires CAM guidance suggests more increase in the
coverage and intensity of convection over the next few hours, and
radar imagery in conjunction with GOES-E IR satellite imagery
shows several clusters of fairly well-organized cold-topped
convection already evolving across the region.

Rainfall rates with the stronger pockets of convection overnight
may reach as high as 1 to 1.25 inches/hour, and given some
potential for localized cell-training, some rainfall totals may
reach as high as 2 to 3 inches. This will especially be the case
over the orographically favored Sangre De Cristo Mountains.

A localized threat for some flash flooding will exist with the
burn scar locations generally the most susceptible to seeing
runoff problems. In particular, the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon burn
scar area in the Sangre De Cristo Mountains will be at risk for
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9t6GemCbgfS6ZnVadRJDe0JuwfzOxNQVOKUxeZhIUAIeb7IGRiJo8QoHkiXDmKZj6TiI= nmO8CfIe_bhki7gm0xhwv-4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37580437 37210381 36580373 35620403 34870454=20
34670502 34780561 35050594 35720606 36220606=20
36670589 37090559 37430507=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191809
FFGMPD
NMZ000-192330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1104
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Areas affected...central to east-central NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191806Z - 192330Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
central/east-central NM through 23Z. Rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.5
in/hr and 15 minute rates locally over 0.5 inches are expected
within repeating/training regions of thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...18Z water vapor imagery showed a well-defined closed
low over AZ, with only slow movement observed over the past 6
hours. Upper level flow to the east of the closed low was fairly
diffluent over NM with possible added lift occurring within the
left-exit region of a weakly defined jet streak located on the
south to southeast side of the closed low. MRMS-reflectivity has
shown the recent development of a SSE to NNW oriented axis of
stronger echoes over Lincoln into Torrance County, located on the
western edge of an axis of 500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE as depicted on
the 17Z SPC mesoanalysis.

Throughout the afternoon, greater insolation with breaks in cloud
cover and continued southeasterly low level moisture transport
will help to support an expanding coverage of 500 to 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE over central to eastern NM as depicted by recent runs of
the RAP, with the greatest instability over southeastern portions
of the state. The increased instability and low level convergence
on the eastern side of the closed low will likely contribute to
increasing thunderstorm coverage through 23Z. The greatest concern
for flash flood potential will exist along and just east of the
southern Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. While forecast
LFC-EL mean flow of 30-50 kt from the south will keep individual
cells moving, deep-layered southerly flow will allow for repeating
and short-term training of cells at times, supporting localized
hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches and 15-minute rates over 0.5
inches.

The southeast facing slopes of the southern Sangre de Cristo
Mountains have received 2 to 3+ inches of rain, much of that over
the past 12 hours, increasing soil moisture. While other areas of
NM have seen less than an inch over the past 24 hours, localized
potential for flash flooding will exist where higher intensity
rainfall repeats over the same location, especially with any
overlap of sensitive burn scar locations or flashy creeks/streams.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9cCkAtwuCgz9kCxaZfuzdpFSkckHH3TQgvmNlepUS0VF0gtzIFd_wB4vXseyR8NcLsKS= QkQ2A0NVUAQkTjLiMAK2Rzw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36610437 36170409 35520412 33920435 32820478=20
32500555 32500611 33100636 34680642 35800697=20
36290701 36530678 36560631 36470601 36350589=20
36230577 36160549 36200542 36300520 36420509=20
36500487=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 191938
FFGMPD
WAZ000-200400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1105
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
338 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Areas affected...Olympic Peninsula into the northern Cascades

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 191936Z - 200400Z

Summary...An ongoing atmospheric river is expected to produce an
additional 2-4 inches over the upslope regions of the Olympic
Peninsula and northern Cascades through 04Z. Hourly rainfall rates
in excess of 0.5 inches will be possible for several hours (mainly
the Olympics) with 36 hour rainfall totals of 4-8 inches.

Discussion...GOES West water vapor imagery showed an elongated
fetch of mid-upper level moisture streaming northeastward, ahead
of a shortwave trough, located near 44N 150W, into the West Coast
from southern Vancouver Island into northwestern WA. Layered PW
imagery showed this atmospheric river contained high moisture
content throughout the vertical column and Blended TPW data
indicated the moisture values within the plume were 150 to 200+
percent of normal. Moisture flux anomalies have weakened since 00Z
when the moisture axis was directed into southern Vancouver
Island, which has received over 10 inches of rain (preliminarily)
according to information from the NWS Weather and Hazards Data
Viewer, but high rainfall rates remained within the axis of
strongest moisture transport where peak precipitable water values
were near 1.5 inches along the coast. Recent observations across
the western Olympic Peninsula showed hourly rainfall between 0.3
and 0.5 inches, but with localized hourly totals in excess of 0.5
inches across western Clallam and Jefferson counties.

19Z visible satellite imagery and surface observations depicted a
cold front extending southwestward from north-central Vancouver
Island into the eastern Pacific. The cold front is forecast to
continue slowly moving toward the south and east over the next 6-9
hours, with continued hourly rainfall over 0.5 inches across the
western Olympic Peninsula through at least 00Z.

2 to 4+ inches of rain has been reported across the upslope
regions of the Olympics and northern Cascades over the past 24
hours. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected
though about 04Z, with rainfall intensity lowering between 00-03Z
as the moisture axis sinks south with the cold front and weakens.
This weakening will be in advance of the upstream shortwave near
150W, which is expected to re-align the offshore moisture axis in
a more south to north orientation, ahead of a forecast surface low
which is expected to approach northwestern WA after 12Z Sunday.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!85k5u--1SAM-u15faPCmct_U3BsrStafCNJPaWJ8UepJ04RcD7a4qLUgxITtBYwN5A4j= zXsKUI6TPSjZHIW9TpBgvWg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OTX...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...NWRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 49002159 48952134 48882120 48782109 48642104=20
48452102 48252108 48062115 47922120 47782128=20
47632142 47542158 47572178 47732192 47962197=20
48122204 48212222 48272240 48322257 48312279=20
48302297 48172322 47942328 47772331 47522329=20
47442332 47272340 47142381 47142429 47852471=20
48312470 48432438 48622323 48992208=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 192329
FFGMPD
NMZ000-200515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1106
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
728 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Areas affected...eastern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 192327Z - 200515Z

SUMMARY...A south to north axis of heavy rain is likely to
generate widely scattered to scattered flash flooding across
eastern NM into the early overnight hours. Training/repeating
cells are expected to produce 1 to 1.5+ in/hr rainfall rates
leading to additional 2-4 inch totals through 05Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and GOES East visible imagery at 23Z
showed a broken axis of thunderstorms extending from southwestern
Chaves County, north-northeastward into southeastern Colfax
County, containing several areas of overshooting tops. These
storms were located within an instability axis containing 500 to
1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and anomalous precipitable water values of 0.7
to 1.1 inches via 23Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Accounting for
sufficient wind shear aloft, some cells were organized containing
mesocyclones and large hail, with trends in MRMS-derived rainfall
increasing over the past 1-2 hours, currently showing a few areas
with hourly rainfall in excess of 1 inch. Water vapor imagery
showed a potent closed upper level low over AZ which has begun to
slowly fill and was slowly retrograding toward the west, but
individual vorticity maxima have been revolving about the low
center with areas of upper level divergence and diffluence east of
the low center over much of NM. VAD wind data at KFDX and KMAF
showed 850 mb winds have been increasing as well over the past
couple of hours, currently near 30 kt from the southeast.

An axis of low level convergence near a quasi-stationary front
located at the leading edge of an increasing low level jet is
expected to maintain a roughly south to north axis of
thunderstorms across eastern NM through at least 05Z. RAP
forecasts indicate the magnitude of the 850 mb winds increasing
over southeastern NM into the 40-50 kt range, with the leading
edge possibly serving as a focal point for the highest rainfall
rates. While instability is forecast to wane into the overnight
with the loss of surface heating, likely contributing to lowering
rainfall rates later in the night, RAP forecasts indicate at least
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE will remain over the east-central to
southeastern portion of the state through 06Z. Mean steering flow,
roughly parallel to the axis of low level convergence is expected
to support repeating rounds and short term training of
thunderstorms, allowing for 1 to 1.5+ in/hr rainfall rates in
addition to 2-4 inches of rain along a south to north axis over
eastern NM.

It is thought that the heaviest rain will remain east of the
sensitive burn scars located over the southern Sangre de Cristo
and Sacramento Mountains through 05Z, however, additional, more
isolated cells to the west of the main axis of thunderstorms may
support an isolated flash flood threat within weaker pockets of
instability, forced by strong dynamic lift east of the AZ closed
low.

Areas of flash flooding are considered likely over eastern NM,
though may remain widely scattered in nature. Storms may propagate
more to the east of current HRRR guidance but the flash flood
threat will decrease with eastern extent due to higher FFG values
toward the TX border.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9qvvrTzyEGHdVp6hoAIxULY2qbMqxx00Djeh1r7RZ3DBWHKMFBy495k6-sQGTkvpkUjc= 56O9wrhA-QGVwRBVO-QlXhI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36720430 36450338 35750305 33090349 32160431=20
32120546 32470583 33510612 34530606 35660576=20
36440507=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 200411
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-201010-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1107
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Areas affected...Eastern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200410Z - 201010Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
to impact portions of eastern NM overnight. Additional areas of
flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a very
divergent flow regime aloft over eastern NM with an expansive
canopy of persistent cold convective tops associated with an
elongated band of heavy showers and thunderstorms. All of this is
occurring downstream of a rather strong upper-level low that is
nearly stationary over central AZ.

MLCAPE values over eastern AZ remain on the order of 500 to 1000
J/kg out ahead of a quasi-stationary front, but the front is
helping to focus a strong north/south axis moisture convergence
which is being facilitated by a southeast low-level jet of 40 to
50 kts that is persisting across the southern High Plains.

This enhanced moisture convergence/transport working in tandem
with the available instability and deep layer ascent downwind of
the upper low has resulted in some very well-organized convection
including a few occasional supercell structures this evening that
have been resulting in locally extreme rainfall rates.

In fact, Roswell, NM (KROW) picked up 0.73" of rain in just a
7-minute period between 0148Z and 0155Z. The persistence of this
extreme rainfall rate led to Roswell seeing 2.70" of rain in one
hour from 0151Z to 0251Z. This has led to locally catastrophic
flash flooding impacts, with a Flash Flood Emergency for the city
of Roswell.

The instability trends over eastern NM are somewhat negative with
3-hour differentials in the MLCAPE of -200 to -400 J/kg. This
suggests that the rainfall rates will likely tend to come down a
bit in the hours ahead, however, the persistence of deep layer ascent/upper-level jet forcing and the low-level jet yielding
enhanced moisture flux convergence should tend to compensate and
help keep rainfall rates still capable of reaching 1.5" to
2.0"/hour with the stronger cells.

Some gradual eastward advance of the overall convective rainfall
axis is expected overnight, but some additional rainfall amounts
of 3 to 4 inches will be possible locally where any of these cells
continue to train or backbuild over the same area. As a result,
additional areas of flash flooding will be likely.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6Erj1W2ZbGyiBF-FSnt-SrG-9xoMutAVM4HNJIbSKgsAMN7kdXXu-NmMmIk8dTvWHuXU= eb0UGL4mjNc6pCwboFNLaog$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36490328 36060290 35190289 34000322 33170377=20
32780425 32640496 33090539 33520542 34670525=20
35840496 36450415=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210059
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-210657-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1108
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Areas affected...Eastern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 210057Z - 210657Z

SUMMARY...Localized training of showers and thunderstorms will
likely result in some additional areas of flash flooding heading
into the overnight hours. This will especially be the case given
the wet antecedent conditions across the region.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a closed
upper low near the Four Corners region gradually beginning to
shift off to the northeast. Divergent flow aloft ahead of the
upper low associated with DPVA will be combining with a moderately
unstable airmass over areas of eastern NM for locally broken
coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms heading into the
overnight hours.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg are in place which combined
with a belt of 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear should yield a
threat for locally organized bands of multicell convection and
potentially a few supercells that will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall rates. The PWs over eastern NM are quite moist and
running 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal.

The more organized pockets of convection may produce rainfall
rates of 1.5 to 2.0 inches/hour, and given the environment that is
conducive for some cell-training, there may be some rainfall
totals going through 06Z that reach as high as 2 to 4 inches. This
is generally consistent with the 18Z HREF guidance and reflects
the expectation that there may be some additional uptick in the
coverage of convection over the next few hours.

Given the wet antecedent conditions over the region from recent
heavy rainfall, some additional areas of flash flooding are likely
heading into the overnight hours. This will also include a concern
for burn scar impacts over portions of the Sangre De Cristo
Mountains.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5MJ2sADZY9EmaYcnp_5h7RATo0dNis5ipsVUN-_hPtKQoCM-ueCzRVzqpwrrd3U7P-dk= RO0El7kihgwyWI15CMVS_z8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37130455 37070359 36570311 35120310 33850331=20
33330382 33240440 33600493 34060511 34960540=20
35330598 35790629 36280607 36890540=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311818
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-010015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1109
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Areas affected...Central & Southern LA...Southeast TX...Ext
Southwest MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311820Z - 010015Z

SUMMARY...Potential for a widely scattered incident or two of
flash flooding is possible through late afternoon into early
evening hours.

DISCUSSION...A potent autumn cyclone and associated cold front are
pressing across the central portion of the U.S, while a strong
ridge remains entrenched over the Southeast. As such, a solid
core of return moisture across the central Gulf with total
Precipitable water over 2.25" is lifting north across Louisiana
and starting to interact/consolidate within the warm sector ahead
of the approaching cold front. However, stronger mid to upper
level jet remains well enough north that front is starting stretch
and flatten from east to west under these low to mid-level
shearing forces. Moderately clear skies throughout the morning
into peak heating across the warm sector has brought temps into
the mid-80s over low to mid-70s Tds, resulting in a moderately
unstable environment across SE TX into much of central and
southern LA with MLCAPEs reaching 1500 J/kg, though nearing 2000
J/kg further west. This disparity is mainly driven by steepening
lapse rates and drying mid-levels above 700mb per CIRA LPW and RAP
analysis; while profiles are more satuated through depth in the
core of the q-axis from Vermillion to Rapides parish in central
LA.

Divergence is maximized at the entrance of the upper-level jet in
proximity to a weak surface inflection along the pre-frontal
convergence axis/effective cold front across NW LA, extending
northward into AR; while weaker flow exists across the Gulf Coast
proper, the overall confluence through depth (mainly directional)
is resulting in solid deep layer convergence. GOES-E and regional
RADAR mosaic has noted a solid increase in convective coverage and
intensity along the q-axis as well as a few upstream clusters in
SE TX from Houston to the Sabine River. Effective bulk shear is
modest to weak but sufficient for some organized structures and
with deep layer flow from the southwest to the northeast (and
convergent) cell motions may support occasional repeating/training
profiles of these clusters. This is likely to be required to
overcome dry conditions and high FFG values across much of the
area. Still, available moisture and solid flux should result in
efficient rainfall production as updrafts broaden in time, adding
to localized duration and potential for 2" sub-hourly totals.=20

While FFG values are 3-5"/1-3hrs across the area of concern, 12z
HREF neighborhood probability of 3"/6hrs (mainly bolstered
3"/3hrs) is greater than 50% from Brazoria county, TX to West
Feliciana parish, LA with greater than 25% from Sabine River to
St. Landry with greatest potential in Evangeline parish. This
still may only result in widely scattered, low-end instance or two
of localized flash flooding; however there are a few prone urban
centers along that axis where scattered spots of 3-4" may occur.=20
As such, flash flooding is considered possible this afternoon but
mainly after 21z into this evening.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6n-ejLEnHOG6PoqUDNYEN2ZRXHoBotOpuW1NlaIqP3yng_onEqAHjYo__yKqqnTlUZ12= 1by6IcIG56sR0lS4QZBKW7g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 32279173 31729101 30779125 29389127 29649367=20
29189471 28949525 28999595 29639600 29979574=20
30639496 31499402 31919331 32189273=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 012212
FFGMPD
LAZ000-020130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1110
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
610 PM EDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Areas affected...South-Central LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012210Z - 020130Z

SUMMARY...A localized threat of flash flooding will exist through
the early evening hours from slow-moving areas of heavy showers
and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery in conjunction with late-day GOES-E IR
satellite imagery shows a general north/south axis of slow-moving
showers and thunderstorms impacting some of the parishes of
south-central LA. The convection is generally aligned in close
proximity to a surface trough and is embedded within a modestly
unstable, but moist environment.

MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg are noted along with PWs of 1.75
to 2 inches, and this has been facilitating some rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger convective cores.
Cell-motions though have been rather slow over the last couple of
hours, and this is favoring some locally heavy storm totals.

The loss of daytime heating combined with the convective
overturning process should yield a gradual waning of the diurnal
instability that is pooled across the region, and this will
support an eventual weakening of the axis of convection with
decreasing rainfall rates in time.

Locally as much as an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain will be
possible over the next few hours going through the early evening
hours before the activity weakens. Given some of the rains that
occurred yesterday, these additional totals may support a
localized flash flood threat, but any runoff concerns will mainly
be of the urban variety.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9YEuvS8gngSTPxI8jU8QsFwJP7aQC6OeiLUeUY7GEibCB8aE-UQnYkUMLVM6bQ5XRk0n= U3wXQbzinpsqJ0cilpJ-O7M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 30929087 30239052 29579057 29469109 30069141=20
30809146=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020419
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-020930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1111
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1219 AM EDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Areas affected...eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020417Z - 020930Z

SUMMARY...A flash flood threat is expected to increase across
portions of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle through 09Z.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr are expected along with 6-hour totals
2-4 inches.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and GOES East infrared satellite
imagery has shown an increasing coverage of scattered
thunderstorms over southeastern NM, between CNM to just northwest
of CVS since 03Z. Southeasterly low level moisture transport, as
seen on CIRA Layered PW imagery below 700 mb, was contributing to
increasing instability over southeastern NM into the southern TX
Panhandle with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE on the 03Z SPC mesoanalysis
co-located with the ongoing storms. 850 mb winds of 30-35 kt were
observed via VAD wind data at KMAF with speed convergence and low
level upslope helping to focus storms.

Back to the west, an eastward moving upper level trough was
observed over the southwestern U.S. with lift out ahead likely to
increase thunderstorm potential across the southern High Plains
through the remainder of the night. The past few runs of the RAP
have supported 30-40 kt 850 mb winds broadening over the Permian
Basin with 40+ kt forecast over the Pecos River Valley in western
TX developing between 06-07Z. Continued moisture advection should
allow MLCAPE to expand as well with 500-1500 J/kg becoming more
widespread across southeastern NM into the western TX Panhandle
through 08Z. While it is not yet clear precisely where, an axis of
low level convergence oriented SW to NE or similar to the mean
steering flow will become better defined tonight, likely allowing
for repeating and occasional training of thunderstorms, capable of
producing 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates. Expectations are for 3 to 6-hr
totals of 2-4 inches which may result in localized flash flooding
through 09Z from portions of southeastern/east-central NM into the
western TX Panhandle.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!57sdomWTh_bBJfA-P_ovTBj3LV_z286AyPyu1zucbTYPqUwm8Vu9YAUUBBZBE_ssU_Tm= MNhlia1Tm2xvM23pReqb1LE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36400148 35040196 33620285 32730365 32320472=20
32910505 34380481 35300412 35980338 36360268=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020941
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-021540-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1112
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
540 AM EDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Areas affected...eastern NM into TX Panhandle and western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020940Z - 021540Z

SUMMARY...The flash flood threat will continue through 15Z for
eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and western OK with additional
rainfall totals of 2-4 inches. While additional areas of flash
flooding will be likely, coverage is expected to remain isolated
to scattered.

DISCUSSION...0915Z radar imagery showed that an axis of
thunderstorms stretched northeastward from south-central NM into
the TX Panhandle with 2 to 4+ inches of rain estimated via MRMS
since 03Z between ROW and AMA near US 70 in NM and US 60 in TX.
Some recent southeastward bowing was observed to the southeast of
AMA which has reduced training due to the reflectivity axis
falling out of alignment with the mean southwesterly steering
flow. However, greater lift is approaching ahead of an eastward
advancing shortwave trough axis extending SSW from CO into western
NM and southeastern AZ with left-exit and right-entrance ascent
occurring with a pair of developing 100 kt upper level jet streaks
located over northwestern Mexico and the central Plains.

Recent RAP forecasts indicate the 40 kt 850 mb southeasterly LLJ
is at its peak and subtle veering and weakening of the flow is
expected through 15Z across southeastern NM into western TX.
Realignment of the low level convergence axis is forecast to occur
a bit south of its current position as the veering occurs and a
weakness in magnitude occurs over the TX Panhandle near I-40 as
seen in RAP output. As the aforementioned shortwave trough
advances east early this morning some eastward translation to the
low level convergence axis will be possible, allowing for the axis
of training heavy rain (1-2 in/hr rainfall rates) to shift south
and eventually east, out of NM, remaining along the northern edge
of a plume of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE.

Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher
possible) are expected in a few locations along the low level
convergence axis but coverage should remain isolated to scattered
across the broader region of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle and
western OK. Therefore, while additional flash flooding will be
likely, it is not expected to be contiguous across the area
through 15Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8w5Z6C4V381UeKdmunju8WV7RMesLDcBAXBV8jgfN_M9UNpTxks9uKQpFHPmwd3v4Caa= rjIw10UnJszxdk9DdDRwkKg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36620010 36559949 36119924 35569926 34969966=20
34260065 33780198 33370342 33230420 33530458=20
34350398 35300280 36020156=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021637
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-022200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1113
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 PM EDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Areas affected...Far eastern New Mexico, Texas Panhandle, western
Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021635Z - 022200Z

Summary...Convective cells are expected to regenerate along an
outflow boundary and track E/NE through the afternoon. Rainfall
rates in excess of 1"/hr are likely, resulting in axes of 2-3" of
rain with locally higher amounts. This could result in instances
of flash flooding.

Discussion...A longwave trough centered over the Great Basin is
amplifying this morning as evidenced by RAP height falls across
that region. This is resulting in sharpening downstream SW flow
tapping moisture from the Pacific, and PWs of 1.1 to 1.3 inches
have surged into the TX Panhandle, near daily records for early
November. Into this moisture, deep layer lift is increasing as
height falls and divergence downstream of the primary trough axis
increase, and overlap with an impressively coupled jet structure
to produce diffluence aloft. This ascent is being enhanced by
mesoscale lift as low-level southerly flow from south Texas surges
northward on 850mb winds of 20-30 kts, lifting isentropically atop
an outflow boundary evident on the regional radar mosaic. Although
this outflow boundary is progged via hig-res guidance to continue
to shift progressively E/SE, this isentropic ascent should result
in regeneration and training of cells through the aftn.

Rainfall rates in current convection are generally modest, but
MRMS 1-hr rainfall accumulations suggest isolated instances of
1-1.5" of rain in the past hour. These rain rates are somewhat
minimized by a lack of pronounced instability, as the SPC RAP
indicates a sharp MLCAPE gradient from 250-1000 J/kg across the
southern TX Panhandle. As the 850mb LLJ continues from the south
however, there is good agreement that these more robust
thermodynamics will surge northward, reaching 1000-2000 J/kg this
aftn. This should result in increased coverage of rainfall rates
exceeding 1"/hr as progged by both HREF and REFS hourly rain rate probabilities. At the same time, mean 0-6km flow will remain
around 30 kts from the S/SW, suggesting cells that regenerate
along the SW portion of this outflow as it stalls will shift N/NE
and train. This indicates potentially two axes of heavy rainfall:
one along this SW flank where cells repeatedly develop, and a
second maxima into western OK where mean flow is more parallel to
the boundary to enhance training. In both these areas, HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 3"/6hrs reach 40-50%.

Somewhat limiting to the flash flood potential today is
exceptionally dry antecedent conditions reflected by AHPS 30-day
rainfall that is generally less than 25% of normal, leading to
NASA SPoRT 0-40cm soil moisture that is around the 10th
percentile. This suggests that flash flooding should primarily be
isolated the next several hours, but where any of these 1-2"/hr
rates train/regenerate, instances of flash flooding will be
possible.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_sivuCLqYWpUQiub-d02x7hSO9eQHxahb4Oq6eMz4jPq8QnsL-Ao_dEApWdSLfLdFcmJ= C2zuhuEeXPDLEwAeJ1F0xP8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...ICT...LUB...MAF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37109866 36999825 36129816 35579814 34769848=20
34139894 33380018 33070197 33050336 33220390=20
33780416 34500396 35100278 35530133 35930028=20
36599923=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022101
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-030300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1114
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Areas affected...Far southeast NM into the Permian Basin and
Rolling Plains of Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022100Z - 030300Z

Summary...Discrete thunderstorms blossoming across the High Plains
of New Mexico will likely expand in coverage and grow upscale into
clusters through the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr or more
are likely, which through several rounds could cause 2-3" of rain
with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon indicates
that discrete thunderstorms, including supercells, have rapidly
developed across southeast NM in the past few hours, and have
expanded into the Permian Basin of Texas. This convection is
blossoming in response to impressive deep layer ascent driven
through PVA downstream of a shortwave lifting across the area
combined with strong upper diffluence within an increasingly
coupled upper jet structure. In the lower levels, 850mb inflow
from the S/SE is lifting isentropically atop a weakening outflow
boundary (which is reflected by a sharp instability gradient),
while concurrently transporting robust thermodynamics northward
characterized by PWs of 0.9-1.2 inches, near the daily record, and
MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Rainfall rates within this convection
has been measured by MRMS as high as 1.25-1.5" in the last hour,
leading to modest CREST unit streamflow responses already.

The high-res CAMs appear to generally be under-doing the
convective coverage this aftn, a theme that has been common
through the day. This limits somewhat the confidence in the exact
evolution the next several hours. However, despite coverage and
timing issues with the guidance, they all agree that eventually
thunderstorms will expand and grow upscale into clusters. This
will be supported by a continued increase in deep layer ascent
impinging into persistently elevated thermodynamics as the
low-level flow remains. This should result in thunderstorms that
intensify, supporting rainfall rates which have a 10-20% chance
(HREF) and 30% chance (REFS) of exceeding 2"/hr through the aftn
and into the evening. Mean 850-300mb winds are expected to remain
progressive at 30 kts from the SW, but despite this, as storms
organize through 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50 kts, intense rain rates
through short-term training could result in maximum rainfall of
2-3" with locally higher amounts.

Far southeast NM, the southern Permian Basin, and the southern Cap
Rock have all been very dry the past 7 days, but AHPS rainfall
departures are well above normal north of there. This has lowered
3-hr FFG to just 1-1.5" across the more saturated soils. As
convection expands and organizes, it could move across these more
sensitive soils, leading to potential instances of flash flooding
into the evening.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9fZYSOBsfKMWwBrnJl09Fu18l1wFuP18o99ZBaEdAOste4iYZ2sOyVBwb40f3S14J5VE= a50tob3cOhtjGvoTB6Ao27U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35150214 35090174 35030081 34479995 33529946=20
32739960 32020063 32010225 32340369 32760419=20
33450422 34390390 35010320=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030424
FFGMPD
MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-030930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1224 AM EDT Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...northwestern TX into central/northeastern OK, far
southeastern KS, far southwestern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030422Z - 030930Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are expected to develop in a
zone from northwestern TX into central OK and northeastern OK
through 09Z. Some spillover into southeastern KS and southwestern
MO may occur as well. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and areas of
training may support localized totals over 4 to 5 inches through
10Z.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 04Z showed an eastward
propagating line of thunderstorms tracking across the southern TX
Panhandle, just east of the Caprock Escarpment. Additional showers
and thunderstorms were noted across the Red River into much of OK.
All of this activity was located near or northwest of a remnant
outflow boundary which extended from near MAF to RPH in TX, then
northeastward into OK between TUL and OKM. SPC mesoanalysis data
indicated MLCAPE values were 500-1500 J/kg along and south of the
outflow boundary, while CAPE dropped off significantly to the
north of the outflow. 850 mb winds of 35-45 kt from the south were
present over west-central TX into central/eastern OK, overrunning
the outflow and forcing convection. Large scale lift was present
over the region out ahead of a longwave trough axis moving through
the southwestern U.S. and within the divergent and diffluent
left-exit region of a prominent 110-130 kt upper level jet max
streaking across northern Mexico into southwestern TX.

Broad forcing ahead of the eastward moving upper level trough over
the Southwest will allow southerly low level winds to maintain and
locally strengthen over TX/OK tonight, continuing overrunning
thunderstorms north of the outflow. The outflow boundary itself is
expected to become more diffuse with time over OK but stay better
defined over TX, to the south of the eastward advancing line.

Despite the forward progression of the convective line east of the
Caprock, mean southwesterly steering flow will align with the axis
of low level forcing, whether it be the outflow boundary or
convective lines near/north of the outflow to support training.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr (locally higher) are likely to develop
within areas of training with multiple hours of heavy rain
possible over a given location.

Despite mostly dry ground conditions from ongoing drought, high
rainfall rates over a short period of time are expected to
overwhelm soils and support areas of flash flooding, with
localized totals over 4 to 5 inches possible. The flash flood risk
will be enhanced if these higher rates overlap with urban
corridors, including the Oklahoma City and/or Tulsa metro.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ZkYQZkpltbcbSITwUyr7lRNxPu9ZszvZsBo8UfV0cs4d_wCRn8s1Xvo6_3ly43CIlMl= xcbEvFbqWUm700Ae-eRUdrY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...LUB...MAF...OUN...SGF...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37399543 37189435 36199484 35119577 33759736=20
33349826 32540053 32530124 32890105 33820040=20
34779997 36239789=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030931
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-031500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1116
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 AM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...northern TX into southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030929Z - 031500Z

Summary...An axis of training heavy rain is expected to impact
portions of northern TX into southern OK through 15Z with rainfall
rates of 1 to 2+ in/hr. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4+ inches are
expected through 15Z along with possible flash flooding.

Discussion...Looping regional radar imagery through 09Z showed a
QLCS progressing eastward across OK at roughly 40-50 kt but the
southwestern flank of this convective line has largely stalled
across northwestern TX, between US 180 and US 380 to the north of
Abilene. Area VAD winds at 850 mb showed 40-45 kt from the south
across central to western TX, overrunning the rain-cooled airmass
where 1000 to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE was present along and south of the
outflow boundary (per 09Z SPC mesoanalysis). In addition to the
low level forcing in place, flow aloft was diffluent and
divergent, within the left exit region of a RAP-estimated 110-120
kt upper level jet max crossing Big Bend NP.

Despite the typical diurnal cycle favoring weakening of the low
level jet through 15Z, RAP forecasts suggest only slight weakening
of the 850 mb winds (into the 30-40 kt range) as a shortwave
trough axis over the southern AZ/NM border translates eastward
this morning. However, infrared cloud tops have been warming
across northwestern TX over the past hour, perhaps due to a
combination of the intrusion of dry air aloft as seen on Layered
PW imagery and weakening moisture flux.

Despite the recent weakening, a flash flood threat will remain
across the Red River Valley over the next few hours as areas of
training will likely persist into the mid-morning hours with storm
motions parallel to the low level axis of forcing. The threat for
training and 1 to 2+ in/hr rates is expected to shift ENE across
the Red River into portions of southern OK through 15Z along with
additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher).
Flash flooding will continue to be possible over the next few
hours with an expected weakening of rainfall intensity and
training potential toward the end of the MPD valid time (13-15Z).

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8SWgZZWagO723T5X43F4I2cxNKzGTFEXBk3v5gSAT5k1JR2e6gQC8jPncN_CMnario-l= 9iI12I6J3j0vcbkRePX4w9A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 35269523 35099451 34269451 33389623 32939780=20
32710002 33489970 34339837 34829718 35079643=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031018
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-031435-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1117
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
517 AM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...southwestern MO, southeastern KS, northwestern
AR, northeastern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031016Z - 031435Z

Summary...A localized occurrence or two of flash flooding will be
possible across southeastern KS/northeastern OK into the Ozarks
through 15Z. While an overall weakening trend in flash flood
potential is expected over the next few hours, rainfall rates of
1-2 in/hr through training may overlap hydrologically sensitive
locations, resulting in runoff issues.

Discussion...10Z radar/satellite imagery showed an MCS tracking
across eastern OK with a convectively induced vorticity max (MCV)
inferred across east-central OK. South of the MCV, a convective
line was rapidly advancing eastward, limiting the threat for
short-term flash flooding over eastern OK. Farther north, rainfall
was more stratiform in nature with embedded convective elements.
Strong lift was occurring across eastern KS/OK within a coupled
upper level jet exit/entrance region supporting a divergent and
diffluent regime aloft. Instability was limited however, with
MUCAPE values of ~500 J/kg or less per 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data.

Expectations are for the MCV and associated areas of heavy rain
with embedded training to track toward the northeast over the next
2-4 hours. While instability is forecast to remain limited across
northeastern OK/southeastern KS into adjacent areas of MO/AR,
strong dynamic lift ahead of the MCV and within the favorable divergent/diffluent pattern aloft may favor brief instances of SW
to NE training within the unidirectional SW flow. Rainfall rates
of 1 to 2 in/hr will be possible along with an additional 2 to 3
inches of rain (locally higher possible) through 15Z. Overlap of
these heavier rainfall rates may overlap with urban areas or an
estimated 4-6 inches of rain which impacted the I-44 corridor in
northeastern OK over the past 12 hours, to generate localized
flash flooding. However, with time, weakening of rainfall
intensities are expected with increased forward progression and a
less favorable thermodynamic environment.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Cub1FPd4NFK64jn8GQ1EqyYez2ipYeVqsMrLaYvdXwAwh8_sCiDYnA4hlw5Mdglsc-R= f6cTdO_OJbAdFRZ6fbLpod0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38639458 38499366 37579339 35519420 35369575=20
36089627 37589583=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031956
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1118
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...central and southern OK...North TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032000Z - 040200Z

Summary...Localized 2-4" short term totals likely to result in
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding through the
afternoon.

Discussion...Convective coverage is increasing this afternoon
across North TX and southern OK, the most intense of which
initiated in the vicinity of the dry line this morning (and is
quickly organizing into a distinct bow echo). This region is
encompassed within a large warm sector and associated low-level
convergence, and instability is once again building after the
passage of an organized MCS overnight. The mesoscale environment
is characterized by ML CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (except over
northeast OK, though continued warm air advection and isentropic
lift will change that over the next several hours), PWATs of
1.4-1.7 inches (near record levels, per OUN sounding climatology),
and effective bulk shear of 45-55 kts.

Continued building instability within this favorable environment
will support increased coverage and intensity of convection into
the evening. This is especially the case given the upper-level
support, as upper-level diffluence is even more impressive than
the low-level convergence (with a phased northern and southern
stream allowing for idealized left-exit region of a sub-tropical
jet streak and right-entrance region of a polar jet streak). Given
the prior rainfall over the past 24 hours (locally up to 3-6"+
over much of OK, per MRMS estimates), antecedent conditions will
be more supportive of excessive rainfall with this next round of
storms.

Hi-res CAMs are in relatively good agreement with convective
evolution, suggesting the potential for localized 2-4" totals over
the next 3-6 hours (per HREF probability-matched mean QPF). While
fast storm motions should generally limit hourly totals to 1.5" or
so (at least through 02z), localized repeating/training of these
rates should support those advertised 3-6 hour totals. The
corresponding Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) are on the order of only
1.5-3.0" (given the aforementioned antecedent conditions), so
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are considered
likely.

Churchill

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9GoAKxlm-gjyqehAGTrt7i73DGblpUjZlVoVP1BmPCr1TKxp0RuyDh2p2TxivO--G7yp= S_OTBIUEhW8e9zT53YjaygU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 36849700 36489552 34709566 33309664 32669743=20
32449864 32149960 32259996 33489973 34559997=20
35109963 35689850=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040001
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-040559-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1119
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 PM EST Sun Nov 03 2024

Areas affected...in and near portions of eastern OK, AR, and
southern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032359Z - 040559Z

Summary...Training showers and thunderstorms over saturating soils
and area terrain are expected to lead to scattered instances of
flash flooding through 06z. Hourly rain totals to 2.5" with local
totals to 5" are expected over that time frame.

Discussion...An upper trough crossing the southern Rockies is
causing a broad area of divergence aloft across portions of the
southern Plains and Mid-South. An effective front, part synoptic
scale and part outflow boundary, extends from a low near the Red
River of the South across southern and eastern AR into the
Bootheel of MO. Along and north of the boundary a broad area of
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall exists, with a
slight break in easternmost OK. Precipitable water values are
near 2" per GPS data. MU CAPE of 500-2000 J/kg exists near the
convection. Effective bulk shear is near 60 kts, more than
sufficient for mesocyclone development. The mean flow is out of
the south-southwest at ~60 kts, with some veering seen in the
low-levels. This is helping to support training convective bands.

The mesoscale guidance broadly supports heavy rainfall in the
region, with high chances of 3"+ across southeast OK, northwest
AR, and some of southern MO. The two areas of heavy rainfall are
expected to merge with a potential increase in intensity as warm
air advection increases MU CAPE into the region over the next
several hours due to strengthening 850 hPa inflow from the Gulf of
Mexico. Some veering to the low-level flow should continue
eastward progression, but also increase the likelihood for cell
training as the flow becomes more unidirectional with height.=20
Given the ingredients available, hourly rain totals to 2.5" with
local totals to 5" are expected over the next several hours, which
would prove too much for saturating soils across portions of
eastern OK and southwest AR. Such rainfall would be problematic
in the terrain of the Ozarks as well. Given the above, chose the
flash flooding likely category as scattered instances of such are
expected through 06z.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5roeQX5FJkgHaqNiYugR-h_BHSGYwzeRuOBttKnx0vGVCyXi9xIkJ9nsI1XZrgAJKz2O= qlqQtvL4M1H9-6pU3n9apao$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...
SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37909406 37639210 37599025 37038960 34749105=20
33719305 33079646 33279801 34459757 34859724=20
36089668 37419605 37489496=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040612
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-041030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1120
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
111 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...eastern OK, northwestern AR, southern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040610Z - 041030Z

Summary...Periods of training convection may result in a few areas
of flash flooding from eastern OK into northwestern AR and
southern MO through 11Z. 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected where
training sets up.

Discussion...A composite outflow boundary was analyzed at 06Z from
the eastern MO/AR border into central AR, eastern OK and then
southwestward across the Red River between Denison and Wichita
Falls, TX. Elevated thunderstorms were occurring to the north of
the outflow with an eastward advancing contiguous convective line
from central MO into northwestern AR. Convective line progression
was stalled or retrograding slightly to the north over
northwestern AR and a fragmented/broken axis of thunderstorms
extended westward from northwest AR into central OK with
individual cell motions off toward the NNE but better organization
was lacking over OK. Southerly low level winds were overrunning
the boundary supporting the continued regeneration of
thunderstorms, acting on 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE along and south of
the outflow boundary in eastern OK. While the better 850 mb flow
was located ahead of the advancing convective line in MO/AR, 30 to
50 kt of S to SSW 850 winds were reported via VAD wind data to the
south of the outflow from eastern OK into northern TX.

The eastward advancing convective line in MO/northern AR is
expected to continue pushing off toward the east but back to the
west in OK, the outflow boundary is expected to continue a modest
retreat northward within deep-layered S to SW flow ahead of a
longwave trough over the Four Corners region. Isentropic ascent
across the composite outflow boundary will likely maintain some
degree of convective regeneration over central to eastern OK into
far western AR through 11Z. While not forecast to be widespread,
instances of training will occur where convective orientation
aligns with the deeper layer SSW steering flow. Training will
support rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, some of which will overlap
with saturated top layer soils given recent heavy rainfall over
the past 24-36 hours.

Areas of training are expected to be transient and scattered
across the region overnight. Recent hires guidance does not have a
good handle on the progression and timing of convection compared
to recent radar trends, so their forecast coverage of 3 to 6
inches through 12Z may be overdone. Nonetheless, 2-4 inches in a
few locations is still expected which may lead to a few areas of
flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_BVvGhDVAZ2B8FPWrhcuMZmLwdopOzAjWuA1YbeFKJeLubKtRiA7uDVJjmgLGPeBsVcU= yFkojwnwl-Z6p-Gw2gLn5lU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 37399216 37059129 36369142 35739212 35039398=20
34879485 34829630 34919710 35249739 35859701=20
36109634 36449520 36969385=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041056
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-041545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1121
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...northern AR into south-central/southeastern MO,
southwestern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041052Z - 041545Z

Summary...Areas of training heavy rain will continue to pose a
possible threat for flash flooding across parts of northern AR
into south-central/southeastern MO through 15Z. Portions of
southwestern IL may also see impacts. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
(locally higher) should be expected.

Discussion...10Z surface observations showed an elongated outflow
boundary extended southwestward from the southern IL/MO border
into northwestern AR and southeastern OK. Training and repeating
rounds of thunderstorms were occurring along and just north of the
outflow boundary from northwestern AR into southern MO, with
MRMS-derived peak rainfall rates of 1.0-1.5 in/hr. Area VAD wind
plots of 850 mb winds showed 40-50 kt in place from Fort Smith to
Memphis, overrunning the boundary and allowing training of heavy
rainfall echoes given similarly oriented steering flow from the
SSW. There was a gradient in MLCAPE across AR, with 10Z SPC
mesoanalysis data showing 1500 j/kg along the OK/AR border,
weakening to the east with less than 500 J/kg along the AR/TN
border, with elevated instability only marginally greater to the
north.

There is little change expected to the regional pattern in place
over the next 3-6 hours, with 850 mb winds of 40-50 kt forecast by
the RAP to continue through 15Z, along with similar instability
and broad/weak diffluent flow aloft. While convective overturning
may moderate current instability values a bit with time,
orographic ascent will enhance low level lift across the southern
Ozark Plateau. Expectations are for occasional areas of training
to setup from northern AR into south-central and southeastern MO,
producing 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates as these relatively strong low
level winds overrun the well-defined outflow boundary in place.
Flash flooding will remain possible for at least another few hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6esZksp20i22w9zNGb6Tbxuho3rHSU6729EsWhE658bozFtJlDZuFfNE3fjM5uMtoDny= _pJLFzSNVC-N8gRcVVXbKYM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38518998 38458936 38288912 37378937 36069137=20
35239281 34989325 34979377 35129412 35189422=20
35629435 36219404 36999323 38339078=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041535
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-042133-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1122
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1034 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...Northern AR...South-Central to Southeast
MO...Southwest IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041533Z - 042133Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms
which will occasionally repeat over the same area will continue to
foster areas of flash flooding heading into the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION....GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction with
dual-pol radar shows a fairly large broken area of heavy showers
and thunderstorms impacting portions of northern AR through
southeast MO and a small part of southwest IL. The activity
continues to be strongly influenced by enhanced warm air
advection/isentropic ascent and moisture transport across the
region with deep layer southerly flow in place out ahead of a deep
layer trough/closed low gradually ejecting east out of the
southern Rockies.

A southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts in the 850/925 mb layer
is noted in the latest VWP data across central to northern AR and
across southeast MO and southern IL which is acting as a conduit
for the poleward transfer of Gulf of Mexico moisture. PWs across
the region are locally as high as 1.75 inches which are on the
order of 2 to 3+ standard deviations above normal for this time of
the year. This anomalous moisture environment will continue to
favor a well-defined excessive rainfall threat with enhanced
rainfall rates given the warm air advection and proximity of at
least modest instability.

MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg up across
northern AR through southeast MO and this is supporting a largely
elevated convective environment at this time. Some increase in
instability is expected going through mid-afternoon and this
should favor some increase in the rainfall rates which will be
capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger storms.

Going through the mid-afternoon hours, additional rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches will be possible, with the heaviest totals most
likely over south-central to southeast MO based on the latest 12Z
HREF guidance. The very wet/saturated antecedent conditions that
are in place coupled with the arrival of additional rounds of
heavy rain over the same area will continue to promote additional
areas of flash flooding with locally considerable runoff concerns.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6GXloCu9o8ZI23AqUpAPdrA1vlbzXXVEvhxpVyv55LOvfXK-763HvBckSdXnu4BCvxz1= AIF6aQnKNba119zkyBfpiPA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 38619040 38578962 37988941 37109001 36469070=20
35479239 35129354 35689421 36669363 37929201=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042146
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-050345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1124
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
445 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...Central to Northeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042145Z - 050345Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates
may produce some isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding, and especially within the more urbanized corridors
heading through the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough and associated closed low
continues to eject gradually across the southern Rockies which is
driving a cold front well to the east across the southern Plains.
This front has been crossing through central and northern TX this
afternoon and is bumping up against a very moist and unstable
environment that is characterized by MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500
J/kg and PWs of 1.5 to 1.75 inches.

A major driver of the moisture and instability transport continues
to be a well-defined low-level jet that is locally reaching 40 to
50 kts, and the latest GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery shows a
substantial amount of cloud street activity ahead of the
approaching cold front.

Increasingly divergent flow aloft associated with the ejecting
height falls/DPVA will favor convection along and just ahead of
the cold front becoming more organized and widespread heading
through the evening hours, and especially with the strongly
favorable thermodynamic environment. A substantial level of
effective bulk shear is in place that will be conducive for a
combination of multicell and supercell activity that aside from
severe weather hazards will be conducive for producing high
rainfall rates.

The convective mode along and ahead of the front will likely
attain a QLCS mode in time, and with a southward extension that
will eventually include areas of south-central TX including
eastern portions of the Hill Country by later this evening.
Rainfall rates may reach as high as 2 inches/hour with the
stronger convective cores heading through the evening hours.

Generally the antecedent conditions across central to northeast TX
are on the dry side, but the convective evolution over the next
several hours will be conducive for some 2 to 4 inch rainfall
amounts which may end up being locally higher if any cell-training
or cell-merger activity takes place. Some isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding will be possible and especially within
the more urbanized corridors.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Gd0Zmw3lA-9sBhCOOjiKxYBkmKijk3RdpC194yF9odQUX4QTtkQgry53i9TbbTl3VT0= oH7y1s-uQMzHDGJeGR5JCYg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 33969545 33599491 32899484 31539550 30419629=20
29569746 29649834 30429842 31859741 33629645=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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