ACUS11 KWNS 120020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120020=20
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-120145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2056
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana...far southern
Mississippi and southwest Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 667...

Valid 120020Z - 120145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 667 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues over the northeastern
quadrant of Francine. While storms have not been overly active so
far, strong low-level shear remains in place and a greater threat
could evolve tonight.

DISCUSSION...As of 0015z, the center of Hurricane Francine was
located 55 miles southwest of New Orleans, LA. Within the
northeastern quadrant, low-level hodographs have continued to
enlarge this evening with the HDC VAD showing 500-600 m2/s2 of 0-1km
SRH. While low-level shear remains very strong, east/northeasterly
surface flow has prevented the more unstable air mass farther south
from moving inland to this point. As the center of Francine
continues to move inland, low-level flow should begin to veer,
allowing the higher theta-E air mass to move onshore. This looks
most likely to occur over eastern portions of WW667 into southern MS
and far southwest AL later this evening. Convective cells within the
eastern most spiral bands have shown more cellular mode and
occasional rotation. Hi-res guidance shows a few of these supercells potentially moving inland tonight. Ahead of these storms, RAP
soundings show enlarging hodographs and modest buoyancy (~500-700
J/kg of MLCAPE) that could support the potential for a few tornadoes
this evening.

..Lyons.. 09/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!72A6Dgdb9M4k5sMlWF0hz2Gy6i7RgkrvDrZdmALSVZz9nQV_keiix4m7PL1WRyPEiGiC8tIMZ= Uee8vLPv4eYD_Adq2s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 30608816 30298753 30158747 29678755 29548789 29538851
29418889 29308918 29418958 29779059 30059076 30439054
30629042 30938974 30928909 30818852 30608816=20


=3D =3D =3D
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