ACUS11 KWNS 051848
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051848=20
NMZ000-052045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024

Areas affected...northeast New Mexico and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 051848Z - 052045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon
across northeast New Mexico.

DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms developed this morning and have
continued into the early afternoon ahead of the southward moving
mid-level shortwave trough across Colorado. These storms have been
sub-severe thus far with a maximum wind gust of 38 knots measured at
Taos, NM. However, surface heating is destabilizing the airmass
ahead of this storm activity and inhibition is forecast to
eventually erode. Once this occurs, more robust convection is
anticipated with the potential for some multicell/occasional
supercell structures. Through time, these storms may congeal into
one or more clusters with an increasing threat for sporadic severe
wind gusts into the early evening. Any severe-weather threat which
does materialize should subside near sunset as the boundary layer
cools and inhibition increases.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 09/05/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Te-U2EaJopA9J0RoGCQax8nfT8NomvjJTi31bOhU7xnzoO3_IHOmcVPIweIYn7aWLCu3F64l= iXV-ux7mv-EIf6QSME$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36500575 36970490 36940399 35760341 34950326 34370341
34010389 34150469 34350511 35260559 36090596 36500575=20


=3D =3D =3D
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