ACUS11 KWNS 011755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011754=20
NYZ000-011930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024

Areas affected...parts of western and northern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011754Z - 011930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A broken line of storms may produce occasional gusty wind
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Inhibition has been mostly eroded across western and
northern New York as temperatures have warmed to the upper 70s to
low 80s with mid 60s dewpoints. Expect scattered thunderstorms to
develop along a cold front once it moves east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Storms may be not be that deep given the relatively shallow thermodynamic profile shown by the RAP forecast soundings. However,
relatively strong flow through the column and a well-mixed boundary
layer may support efficient transport of gusty winds to the surface
within these storms. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible
through the afternoon with this threat waning near sunset.

..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/01/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_rafvXz1uDDqaKfrxJKZrk4Ue4PXwEYxbshkX_KL-_thGUjjdUSXnNhtJNJegxMpRRZ62nee3= jVBQcNoIneqdW2DkBA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 43357915 43497832 43517714 43907704 44207653 44667583
45167503 45587378 45557370 45137334 44107369 42977513
42497697 42337806 42427885 42657931 43357915=20


=3D =3D =3D
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