ACUS11 KWNS 271625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271625=20
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-271900-

Mesoscale Discussion 2013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024

Areas affected...southeast Wisconsin...northern Illinois...western
Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 271625Z - 271900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may continue to increase in coverage and intensity
along a weak boundary, from eastern WI into northern IL. Scattered
strong to severe gusts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms which formed in a semi-elevated regime over
central WI have continued to expand north-south in coverage, with
recently reported gusts just below severe limits (40-50 kt range).
Addition convection is now forming southward along a subtle wind
shift into southern WI, and additional storms are anticipated into
northern IL.=20

The air mass is quite moist and unstable over the entire area, and
low-level lapse rates will continue to steepen over the next several
hours. Although shear is weak, the ample precipitable water, MUCAPE,
and existing forcing mechanisms (outflow boundary and wind shift to
the southwest) suggest additional strong to severe gusts will
develop later this afternoon.

While convection near Green Bay will soon move offshore, westerly
925/850 mb winds may maintain an unstable feed of air above the
cooler lake surface. If storms can maintain composure over Lake MI,
the heated air over western Lower MI may then support severe gusts.

Farther south into northern IL and extending into southwest Lower
MI, the severe risk will is conditional on enough convection forming
along the weak boundary. Given a very moist air mass with mid to
upper 70s F dewpoints, and current satellite trends, the thinking is
that this may indeed be the case, and trends will be closely
monitored. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed over parts of
the region this afternoon.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 08/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-A2_SVgU_kK6w5cQ-7MxlT5dZ2KmD414pmyPAp0yMviKfkSYnZwLOMVnHxs588KhSXMPhpP17= 8vi8ajz_BlbQmXfYxA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 43208515 42298568 41618640 41358725 41308782 41318876
41508937 41958963 42568925 43128882 43898837 44458817
44638796 45138567 45038503 44558471 43978474 43208515=20


=3D =3D =3D
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