ACUS11 KWNS 261944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261943=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-262145-
Mesoscale Discussion 2000
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Areas affected...Far eastern South Dakota into Central/Southwest
Minnesota
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649...
Valid 261943Z - 262145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649
continues.
SUMMARY...Potential for large/very-large (2+ inches) hail and severe
winds (some 75+ mph) will increase this afternoon into the evening,
especially for parts of central/southern Minnesota.
DISCUSSION...A storm within the buoyancy gradient has increased in
intensity over the last 30 minutes. Additional development appears
likely to its immediate south-southwest. Potential for large and
severe winds are expected to increase this afternoon. Of additional
concern are towering cumulus starting to develop in west-central
Minnesota and far eastern South Dakota. Short-term guidance from the
HRRR and the latest MPAS runs suggest that one or both of these
areas could see storms develop within the next 1-3 hours. These
storms are in a more favorable thermodynamic environment than storms
farther north. Large to very-large (2+ inches) hail and severe winds
(some 75+ mph) would be possible. The exact evolution of these
storms remains a point of uncertainty. Most guidance suggests that
storms could congeal into an MCS where severe winds would become a
greater threat as activity moves east.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/26/2024
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!49o3HBK2pM5dBj_LE-Evhh8V1XdsF18h7NCUscEOLCYbvNPYR7RqWYoKuSARuG1XqVoHdt5OC= RvcORyIqdxw5EcLFbo$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...
LAT...LON 46659530 46999428 46849376 45429329 44699369 43869508
43749616 43679628 43689642 43909656 44839673 46349668
46479616 46659530=20
=3D =3D =3D
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