ACUS11 KWNS 261716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261715=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-261915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024

Areas affected...northeast WY...southeast MT...western SD...and
western NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 261715Z - 261915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next
few hours across eastern Wyoming into far southeast Montana, western
South Dakota and western Nebraska. Large hail and severe wind gusts
possible with this activity. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely
be needed for portions of the region in the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A strong mid/upper trough will continue to eject
east/northeast across WY/MT this afternoon, providing ample
large-scale ascent for thunderstorm development. Boundary-layer
moisture will remain modest, but cool temperatures aloft/steep lapse
rates will foster MLCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective shear
greater than 40 kt will favor organized updrafts, with a mix of
supercells and line segments possible. Elongated/straight hodographs
combined with a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment
will support large hail, with some potential for isolated hail
stones in the 2-3 inch diameter range in the strongest cells.
Additional heating will result in steepening low-level lapse rates,
enhancing severe gust potential, particularly across parts of
eastern WY into far southwest SD and northwest NE, where a few gusts
greater than 70 mph are possible.=20

Some uncertainty exists on the north/east extent of severe potential
as morning convection across central SD has left lingering cloud
cover while reinforcing a more southward position of a surface
baroclinic zone near the SD/NE border. Nevertheless, a severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD
area within the next couple of hours.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/26/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5H4x1SggHgKWZ6Ph48MVKHZ5V0l8yYG0ZXUFNgMl0MjMSwV0cWKxdlpSavgJmDBBq9KPfnz06= BR1LBfWeTQJ6UXRKvQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 44420658 45310621 45620539 45600423 45250310 44400151
43620098 42350143 41960182 41650245 41570361 41790478
42240588 43870665 44420658=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)