ACUS11 KWNS 251628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251627=20
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-251830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1987
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Areas affected...parts of eastern Utah...adjacent northwestern
Colorado and southwestern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 251627Z - 251830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying renewed thunderstorm development is possible
across much of eastern Utah by 1-2 PM MDT. Widely scattered
stronger storms may pose a risk for severe hail and wind while
spreading northeastward and eastward through late afternoon. While
it is still not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be
needed, trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a seasonably vigorous short wave trough
slowly progressing east-northeastward through the Great Basin, a
narrow band of large-scale ascent continues to gradually spread east
of the Wasatch. This is in the wake of initial low-level warm
advection driven convection now spreading spreading northeastward
through the Colorado and adjacent Wyoming Rockies, with insolation
across a relatively moist boundary layer over much of eastern Utah
contributing to increasing destabilization.

Through 18-20Z, models suggest that mixed-layer CAPE may increase to
500-1000 J/kg, coincident with further strengthening of south to
southwesterly mid/upper wind fields (including 30-70+ kt in the
700-300 mb layer). As new thunderstorm development begins to
initiate, it appears that this regime will become potentially
conducive to evolution of isolated supercells. In addition to
posing a risk for large hail, stronger storms may become capable of
producing locally severe wind gusts, particularly as they spread
across the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations
through late afternoon.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/25/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!75GqR4deNe6lrAUdaGV8aPGEFyClr9Y50BP9TB8CTYUyTG51U2HwEZxGWqUXGEFQj2v3rcalO= 9J9NM2-KpEr80EkOGY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 40631059 41650798 40220842 38420926 37600986 37181085
37551144 39331088 40631059=20


=3D =3D =3D
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