ACUS11 KWNS 130126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130126=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-130330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1890
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado into Western Kansas...and the far
western Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 130126Z - 130330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convection has organized into a few linear segments as
storms have progressed eastward onto the High Plains of eastern
Colorado and the far northwestern TX/western OK Panhandles. These
storms could be capable of a few severe gusts, but are moving into a stabilizing environment. Weather Watch issuance is not likely at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon thunderstorms have begun to coalesce into two
linear convective segments -- one in eastern Colorado, the other in
the far western Oklahoma Panhandle -- that will be capable of a few
severe gusts this evening. The greatest threat for severe winds will
be along the leading edge of any developing bow echoes, though the
stabilizing nocturnal boundary-layer could inhibit some of the
higher-momentum air from reaching the surface. Additionally, the
observed 00Z DDC sounding, along with SPC mesoanalysis, suggests
both MCSs are moving into increasing MUCINH that will likely cause
convection to weaken with eastward extent. Given these factors,
Weather Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

..Halbert/Wendt/Edwards.. 08/13/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8cgr0gl_YQqUGq9vpNwE945Lhn6e7dL4rLCBsLVy3PqNmF9bQJPYA1XINrrMa1e47EJA5Jh5a= eXARhToZ8Y3ozVqL9I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35690251 35850286 35980317 36080337 36330357 37670434
38360458 38500470 38640445 38760430 39040412 39240396
39410374 39430358 39340317 39200269 39090222 38860163
38700123 38370091 37950086 37440079 37000081 36510084
36130098 35870134 35750184 35690251=20


=3D =3D =3D
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