ACUS11 KWNS 011906
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011906=20
WIZ000-012100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2024

Areas affected...Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011906Z - 012100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase as
destabilization in the vicinity of a weak surface low continues.
More intense storms may be capable of severe wind, hail, and perhaps
a short-lived tornado.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been ongoing for much of the late
morning and early afternoon hours across central WI in the vicinity
of a weak surface low. Gradual cloud-top cooling has been noted over
the past 30-60 minutes in GOES IR imagery, implying that convection
is slowly becoming more intense amid continued daytime heating and
gradually cooling mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorm activity is
expected to increase along the surface fronts draped to the
south/southeast of the low. Initially discrete cells quickly
developing into clusters given the weak (20-25 knots) deep-layer
wind shear noted in regional VWPs. More intense updraft pulses may
be capable of large hail (generally between 0.75 to 1.25 inches),
and perhaps a brief landspout tornado given ambient low-level
vorticity in place along the surface boundaries and adequate
low-level buoyancy. As convection grows upscale, damaging winds
should become the predominant hazard. Limited wind shear magnitudes
and a high probability for destructive storm interactions should
modulate the overall severe threat. Watch issuance is not
anticipated.

..Moore/Bunting.. 08/01/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5vOTyq28F_TBX-Vl9Ap5cwutGDdG1H2Gz1-fACYMhzcXyYLY4XkrnVfu3vq6jIc9PPR1nqSfU= CkTjxicmNk1oUAxho0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 45419122 45649088 45849035 45899006 45848971 45738934
45568913 45228888 44148848 43518817 43178798 42948799
42818804 42698820 42658842 42708863 42828937 42888953
43148988 44669103 44949123 45119130 45419122=20


=3D =3D =3D
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