ACUS11 KWNS 292310
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292309=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-300045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1730
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern South Dakota and far north-central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561...

Valid 292309Z - 300045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561
continues.

SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will
continue with the most intense thunderstorms across Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 561.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KUDX indicates semi-discrete,
splitting supercells generally tracking eastward across
central/southern SD into far north-central NE this evening. These
storms have been producing 60-65 mph gusts and hail up to 1.75
inches. Moderately unstable surface-based inflow -- characterized by
upper 80s/lower 90s temperatures amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints
should support the maintenance or even intensification of these
storms with eastward extent. Long/mostly straight hodographs (with
some low-level clockwise curvature) should favor a continuation of
splitting, semi-discrete supercells in the near-term. These storms
will be capable of producing locally severe gusts near 75 mph and
very large hail to around 2.5 inches in diameter. In the near-term,
this is especially the case with a dominant right-mover supercell
cluster moving across portions of Jones and Mellette Counties, SD.
While less certain, the aforementioned hodograph structure and
semi-discrete supercell mode may support a brief tornado as well.=20

With time, there may be a tendency for some of these storms to grow
upscale as they intercept the richer boundary-layer moisture with
eastward extent. This would favor an increasing damaging-wind risk.

..Weinman.. 07/29/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5sqB6qs-1SZg0RjBUFySaMb_PWPb6i-BrYDOs2qonYS6cqIKjIXk9lAmghczQLc39hAuGa54T= QiQsMyrcOAfhZy3h0c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 43980089 44500137 44790137 45000113 45050062 45040000
44699938 43969912 43129909 42839948 42730020 42810080
42980096 43980089=20


=3D =3D =3D
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