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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1653

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 16 18:36:20 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 161836
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161835=20 CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-162030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1653
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0135 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

    Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania into Northern Maryland...New
    Jersey...and far Southern New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161835Z - 162030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed later this
    afternoon for storms capable of 60-70 MPH wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends and short-term WoFS guidance
    suggests that thunderstorm activity should increase over Central and
    Eastern Pennsylvania this afternoon, bringing a threat primarily for
    damaging straight-line winds. These storms are expected to progress
    eastward into New Jersey and far southern New York.=20

    Surface observations show a hot, dry boundary-layer in place over
    the highlight area, with surface temperatures in the upper 90s F to
    low 100s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s F to low 70s F. These
    conditions have resulted in MLLCL heights of around 2-3 km and
    low-level lapse rates that are dry adiabatic beneath the LCL.
    Additionally, the better deep-layer wind shear supportive of
    organized convection is confined to northern and central PA,
    suggesting that the primary threat is for damaging winds from
    disorganized to weakly-organized multi-cell clusters. Weather watch
    issuance may be needed later this afternoon.

    ..Halbert/Squitieri/Hart.. 07/16/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5cCh9zJwfDrlEmYmTnC99I39RpJ9pXvGgcADVDl-Jp-jajBAJ4tXtP87uIZ_R0oSeNlYytWwk= pPViHoCCPmjH8FKorA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 39917808 41057765 41307728 41407675 41497604 41447524
    41337454 41317399 41137362 40797362 40517369 39977409
    39837432 39687500 39557577 39277620 38967647 38807661
    38727693 38707737 38817799 39117826 39567818 39917808=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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