ACUS11 KWNS 160313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160313=20
INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-160515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1644
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Northwest Indiana into far southwest lower Michigan

Concerning...Tornado Watch 541...

Valid 160313Z - 160515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 541 continues.

SUMMARY...Conditions remain favorable for significant (75+ mph) wind
gusts and QLCS tornadoes as a MCS moves into northwest Indiana and
far southwest lower Michigan.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, multiple QLCS tornadoes have
been noted in velocity/correlation coefficient data from radars out
of the Chicago, IL area. Additionally, a measured wind gust of 75
mph was reported at the O'Hare airport, and the KLOT VWP observed 60
knot winds within the lowest kilometer associated with the passage
of the gust front. GOES IR imagery suggests that this portion of the
MCS is currently the strongest with multiple deep convective
updrafts embedded within the leading edge of the line. A buoyant air
mass remains in place downstream across northwest IN and far
southwest MI, and while low-level shear is currently not overly
strong downstream, winds in the lowest few kilometers are expected
to increase ahead of the MCS due to the deepening MCV currently
moving over lower Lake Michigan (such as trend was noted in the KLOT
VWP prior to MCS passage, and a similar trend is currently being
noted in the KIWX VWP). Consequently, the threat for significant
wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes should persist for the next couple of
hours.

..Moore.. 07/16/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9hu9R7A5dj0rTfA90TEHU50jCONaTmcGPQw7eRNKtVzr8SDemhqQ91sVokfLYqix87xeCh3Gj= 9zj3i6BHZh5bjLRe9c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 40928622 40648670 40518703 40478736 40528761 40658784
40758788 40968770 41328759 41568756 41688728 41848669
42098649 42028617 41878603 41378607 40928622=20


=3D =3D =3D
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