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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1637

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 15 21:36:38 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 152136
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152136=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-152330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1637
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0436 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast Pennsylvania and central to eastern New
    York

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538...

    Valid 152136Z - 152330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A squall line capable of producing severe winds is
    expected to continue eastward into central and eastern New York
    later this evening. Downstream watch issuance is anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, an organized squall line has become established across north-central PA and western NY. Velocity imagery
    from regional radars suggests that winds may be approaching severe
    limits, and several wind damage reports have been noted within the
    past 30-60 minutes. The downstream environment across central and
    eastern NY remains favorable for maintaining this line with upwards
    of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and low-level lapse rates approaching 8
    C/km. Additionally, enhanced 50-60 knot mid-level flow in the
    vicinity of an attendant MCV is noted in regional VWPs, which should
    continue to favor an organized squall line. Confidence in the
    potential for damaging/severe winds downstream appears sufficiently
    high to warrant watch issuance within the next 1-2 hours as the line
    approaches the eastern fringe of WW 538.

    ..Moore.. 07/15/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4NpM0QZsSoQZVSNWzfcZJGx-RRpeDW8X83atPKSr-79yXj5GdTvGHP3phGgHztyV7vNOmohwJ= aD6ZKUqeeZkXOiE0-U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

    LAT...LON 40937736 40927742 40957754 41047761 41167750 41477736
    42077742 42487755 42937739 43187705 44057468 43937406
    43597367 43097342 42687338 42207351 41827379 41627413
    40937736=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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