ACUS11 KWNS 140017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140016=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-140145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0716 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Areas affected...North-central MN and far southeast ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524...

Valid 140016Z - 140145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 524
continues.

SUMMARY...A brief tornado, locally damaging winds, and isolated
severe hail will remain the primary threats through about dusk. An
increasing risk for damaging winds may occur later this evening
towards parts of west-central to north-central Minnesota.

DISCUSSION...Multiple areas of sustained convection are ongoing, the
more prominent of which are near the international border in the
Lake of the Woods area, and separately along the surface
front/trough over far southeast ND into northwest MN. This latter
convection has been holding nearly stationary, which will allow for
a progressively deeper cold pool to form across northwest MN. Recent
HRRR runs and afternoon guidance remain insistent on upscale growth
occurring to the east-southeast into portions of central MN. This
appears plausible given the presence of a substantial MLCAPE
gradient lying to the southeast of these ongoing storms.

..Grams.. 07/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6rdIFYrGGqEkhRc-_Y5LqLvfRz0qLm75n-hH-a7yIXDvgm21T9TDR-ZfcnlRM770KlCGNEunZ= Ws3cT-NJH_17JGI2dY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 47279676 47449618 47809565 48809536 49109490 49089416
48799332 48689328 46859341 46059391 45849461 45909594
46219691 46609713 47279676=20


=3D =3D =3D
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