ACUS11 KWNS 132005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132004=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-132130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1595
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0304 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Areas affected...Southeast MN into central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 132004Z - 132130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may increase through the
afternoon, with a threat of isolated hail, damaging wind, and
possibly a brief tornado.

DISCUSSION...Some recent intensification has been noted with storms
across central WI, and also near the MN/WI to the southeast of the
Twin Cities. Both of these storm clusters are located near an outflow-influenced front, with very warm and moist conditions noted
south of the effective front across southeast MN and central WI.=20

Convective evolution through the afternoon remains somewhat
uncertain, but some increase in storm coverage and intensity will be
possible as MLCAPE continues to increase into the 2000-3000 J/kg
along/south of the boundary. Effective shear generally ranges from
25-35 kt (greater with westward extent), with some modest increase
possible as somewhat stronger midlevel flow overspreads the region
through the afternoon. A few stronger clusters and possibly a couple
of supercells could evolve with time. Large hail and locally
damaging wind would be the most likely hazards, though a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out near the boundary.=20

Watch issuance is possible if observational trends continue to
support an increase in storm coverage through the afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/13/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4KQErYkyo5hRTDNdKxN78QUNRF7asyPm-6cnRl_mme0HA78yDcGkglrTHAxrQRAVNGFwKEJKy= 36lRHErYQWp-ZI51QM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 43879201 44049261 44389340 44889418 45139414 45169377
44779273 45189028 45348911 45358831 45138798 44748792
44448818 44218832 43858906 43798971 43789154 43879201=20


=3D =3D =3D
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