ACUS01 KWNS 070143
SWODY1
SPC AC 070142

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0842 PM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will continue this evening across parts of
the central Plains. A few marginally severe storms will be possible
further west into the southern and central High Plains, and
northward into the mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains/Southern and Central High Plains/Mid Missouri
Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over the
eastern Dakotas, with a shortwave trough extending southward from
the low into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is
located from western Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota, along
which a marginal severe threat will continue this evening. Further southeastward into the warm sector, a couple convective systems are
ongoing along and to the east of the shortwave trough. An organized
line segment is located in far southeast Nebraska, along the western
edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where the RAP is
analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs in
this area have southeasterly winds at the surface, with winds
gradually veering to westerly in the mid-levels. This wind profile
will continue to be favorable for linear organization, and a
wind-damage threat is expected to continue in the vicinity of far
southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri this evening. Hail
will also likely accompany the stronger cells embedded in this line.

Further to the southwest into west-central Kansas, a severe
convective cluster is also ongoing along and to the east of a
north-to-south corridor of moderate instability. Near this area, the
RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This
convection is located just to the north of the Dodge City WSR-88D
VWP, which has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This shear environment
should be enough to continue a threat for supercells this evening.
Supercells will likely be capable of isolated large hail. A few
severe wind gusts will also be possible. The ongoing convective
systems in Kansas and Nebraska are expected to continue into the
late evening, but the severe threat should become more isolated with
time as instability gradually decreases across the central Plains.

..Broyles.. 07/07/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141314
SWODY1
SPC AC 141312

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0812 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CORRIDOR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICAL LABEL POSITION

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
The mid/upper-level pattern will remain dominated by mean troughing
from the Great Lakes southwestward across TX, and an anticyclone
over the Four Corners States, though each should deamplify through
the period. A belt of relatively maximized, west-northwesterly to northwesterly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the
Great Lakes, with strong difluence on its southern and southeastern
fringes from the central Plains to parts of the mid-Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys. Convectively generated/enhanced perturbations now
over Lower MI, southern WI and southeastern SD will traverse the
flow belt across the southern Great Lakes region through the period.
Upstream, a strong shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel
imagery over parts of northern/western AB. This feature should move southeastward to southeastern AB and southern SK by 00Z, then reach
the Red River (of the North) Valley near the end of the period.

At the surface, features relevant to today's convective potential
mostly were outflow-related at 11Z, south of what had been a
synoptic warm to stationary front. These will be discussed in
greater detail below. As the outlook areas are predicated on
multiple interactions between existing and future boundaries and MCS
activity, the outlook lines may shift considerably through the day
as mesoscale trends and newer guidance focus potential better.

...Northern Plains...
One or more clusters of severe thunderstorms may develop over the
region this afternoon or tonight, with potential for severe gusts.
This includes the possibility of significant (65+ kt) gusts.
However, confidence has decreased in placement or timing of any
specific significant-gust area. The airmass in and around the one
from the previous outlook has been directly and substantially
overturned by a large and significantly severe overnight MCS.

Convectively parameterized ("synoptic") guidance and
convection-allowing progs are widely dispersed in location, size,
and to lesser extent timing of MCS upscale development over this
area. The general consensus appears to be for MCS potential over
ND, north of the main corridor disrupted by the major complex of
last night. This may be the most reasonable solution synoptically,
given the increasing large-scale ascent likely tonight from the
approaching Canadian shortwave trough, and potential for residual
moisture not directly affected by the prior MCS to suffice in its
inflow region. Still, questions remain regarding how much
associated convectively processed air will affect inflow
trajectories of activity farther north. The outflow boundary from
that complex -- which generated intense pressure perturbations and a
broad rear-inflow jet -- has surged all the way into central IA,
southeastern NE and northern KS -- well south of substantial flow
aloft and south of supportive upper-air features. Given these
intervening developments, the unconditional "slight" area has been
trimmed northward more in line with potential for an overnight
complex in ND, whose severity and longevity itself is uncertain.

...Upper Mississippi Valley region to Lower Great Lakes States...
This outlook area covers two potential MCS/severe episodes, though
considerable uncertainty remains as to which may be more dominant in
terms of total report distribution. Skeletal remnants of an earlier
MCS, with remaining convection non-severe in nature, was apparent
over portions of northwestern OH, northern IN and southern Lower MI.
The outflow boundary from this activity was drawn across IN/IL/IA
near a LAF-MLI-CID line, where it was being overtaken on the west by
outflow from a complex over southern WI and northern IL, that was
penetrating an airmass stabilized by the earlier activity, but
undergoing modification from low-level warm/moist advection. As
this complex or its associated outflow arc moves southeastward into less-modified, more strongly diurnally heated boundary layer near
and north of the oldest outflow boundary, additional strengthening
appears increasingly probable, with damaging to severe gusts the
main concern.

Regardless of how severe it becomes later, the ongoing complex, in
turn, should continue to deposit outflow across northern IL and
eastern IA, reinforcing the baroclinic zone in that region, with
some northeastward shift possible through the day amid modest but
steady low-level warm advection. When the remnant pressure/theta
perturbation from the old SD complex interacts with this boundary
this afternoon, during a period of peak diurnal heating and weakest
MLCINH, additional thunderstorms should develop -- with fairly quick
upscale evolution into yet another MCS possible. As with its
predecessors, any such complex should move parallel to, mainly along
and north of the residual outflow boundary and generally with the mid/upper-level flow, offering damaging gusts and isolated large
hail. The upstream boundary layer that will source inflow for these
potential complexes is characterized by rich moisture, with surface
dewpoints remaining commonly in the upper 60s to low 70s F (locally
higher) along and south of the outflow boundaries, supporting a
corridor of MLCAPE ranging from near 4000 J/kg in the IA/northern IL
area to 2000-3000 J/kg over parts of OH/IN.

...AZ...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon -- initially over higher terrain where diurnal heating
preferentially erodes MLCINH fastest -- then move generally westward
or west-southwestward to lower terrain and deeper boundary layers.
Isolated severe gusts are possible from the most vigorous cells,
atop a deep subcloud layer characterized by nearly dry adiabatic
lapse rates from surface to LFC. This motion should be supported by
a layer of substantial easterly component roughly from 700-300 mb.
Enough low-level moisture should remain over the desert floors
through the heating/mixing cycle to support 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE,
and 1000-1500 J/kg DCAPE.

..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/14/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 231742
SWODY1
SPC AC 231741

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND
WESTERN ARIZONA AND MOJAVE DESERT...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDERSTORM BOUND PLACEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic
states, portions of the Midwest, and parts of the Desert Southwest.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas/Southeast States...
Visible-satellite imagery shows a building cumulus field over the
region amidst a very moist airmass located over the Carolina coastal
plain (mid to upper 70s deg F surface dewpoints). Strong heating
will contribute to moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A
belt of moderate west-southwesterly mid-level flow may aid in some multicellular storm organization in the form of a few clusters.
Water-loaded downdrafts capable of an isolated risk for wet
microbursts (peak gusts 50-60 mph) appear to be the primary severe
hazard.

...IA into northern IL...
Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop along the northern front
from southern Wisconsin across Iowa and southern Minnesota this
afternoon, perhaps aided by a weak MCV from morning storms. Models
show the development of moderate buoyancy with deep-layer shear
around 25 kt. A few of the stronger storms may be capable of an
isolated risk for strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) and
marginally severe hail. This activity will likely diminish by early
to mid evening.

...Western AZ into the Mojave Desert...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Mogollon Rim of
Arizona again this afternoon, with relatively weak northeast
mid-level flow steering storms southwest into the lower elevations.
Widely scattered storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon
into the evening. The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will
potentially support an isolated risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph)
with the stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts.

..Smith.. 07/23/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 260533
SWODY1
SPC AC 260531

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND
ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO
WESTERN UTAH...PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears seasonably low across much
of the U.S. today through tonight.

...Discussion...
A significant inland migrating mid-level trough (and embedded low)
is now progressing east-northeast of the Canadian and northern U.S.
Rockies, and forecast to continue eastward across the Canadian
Prairies today through tonight. While stronger mid-level height
falls likely remain focused well to the north of the international
border area, models indicate that mid-level heights will continue to
fall across much of the West into the northern Great Plains, as weak
trailing troughing develops inland of the Pacific coast and
downstream ridging becomes increasingly suppressed. In lower
levels, to the south of a deepening surface cyclone associated with
the primary short wave perturbation, a modest cold front may advance
east of the northern Rockies, before stalling and weakening across
the northern Great Plains into northern portions of the Great Basin.

As this regime evolves, destabilization associated with strong
daytime heating and remnant monsoonal moisture appears likely to
support considerable thunderstorm development this afternoon and
evening across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona through the
southern Rockies, and near lee surface troughing across the north
central high plains. Additional, more widely scattered,
thunderstorm activity may focus near/just ahead of the surface front
across the northern Great Basin through portions of the northern
Rockies and northern Great Plains. Some of the stronger, more
persistent convection will probably overspread, or develop above,
more strongly heated and deeply mixed (with large developing surface temperature-dew point spreads) lower elevations, accompanied by a
risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts.

...Eastern North Dakota/Northwestern Minnesota...
Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air,
which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern
Great Plains through the day, models indicate that seasonably moist boundary-layer air may support a narrow corridor of large potential
instability across the Red River Valley vicinity into the stalling
weakening frontal zone across northwestern Minnesota/southeastern Manitoba/adjacent northwest Ontario by early evening. Downstream of
the base of the short wave perturbation crossing the Canadian
Prairies, forcing for ascent may support isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development. In the presence of at least
30-40 kt deep-layer shear, and modest clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs, one or two supercells appear possible to the south of
the international border, perhaps as far southwest as areas
near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo.

..Kerr.. 07/26/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010112
SWODY1
SPC AC 010111

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO...

CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated
hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the
overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest
and Ohio Valley.

...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest...
Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across
parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper
MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90
mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN,
and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear
attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern
Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through
the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours.

Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing
storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth.
Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very
large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also
possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and
southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface
winds are in place.

The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat
for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through
central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is
possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across
northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging
gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more
upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts
of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind.
A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any
intense bowing segments tonight.

...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians...
A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast
KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind.
Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts
of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few
stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development
across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with
some damaging-wind potential.

...Southwest AZ vicinity...
High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to
locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO
River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes
overnight.

..Dean.. 08/01/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131356
SWODY1
SPC AC 131354

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH
CAROLINA...

CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern
Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and
central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina.

...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High
Plains...
Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move
through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist
across the West today. A residual plume of seasonably high moisture
resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High
Plains. The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the
OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this
afternoon/evening. Heating will contribute to weak to moderate
instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the
High Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to
develop by late this afternoon into the early evening. A locally
greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT
where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode
of supercells/multicells. However, some uncertainty remains due to
ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery.
Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely encompass
the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor. Farther east and northeast, an isolated
threat for hail/wind will potentially accompany the stronger
late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the
evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster.

...Central Plains/lower MO Valley...
As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across
the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is
expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside
over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the
cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms
are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or
exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be
possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone.

...South Carolina...
Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone
draped from southern GA into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass
sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean
mixing ratio) will diurnally destabilize today. Weak convergence
via the frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing
by early to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap. A mid to
upper-level disturbance moving southeast into the southern
Appalachians this morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain
later today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb)
may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60
mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the
stronger storms.

..Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140139
SWODY1
SPC AC 140137

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...

CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from
eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas.
Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska
southeastward into Missouri.

...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri...
An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and
RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to
2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to
continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with
potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH
range can be expected.

Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across
the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone
of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is
expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a
supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind
gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area.

..Goss.. 08/14/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240629
SWODY1
SPC AC 240627

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF WESTERN
MO...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four
Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains. Strong to
severe storms are also possible across western Missouri and also
across western Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over the West
today. An embedded mid/upper cyclone is forecast to move
southeastward from northern CA into the Great Basin. Downstream, an
upper-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the southern Great
Plains. One surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across the
northern High Plains, while another weak surface low may develop
across the south-central High Plains.

...Four Corners region into the central High Plains...
The eastern fringe of stronger southwesterly flow aloft (associated
with the deep upper trough) will overspread a plume of midlevel
moisture from the Four Corners region into the central Rockies.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the region
this afternoon. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and modest but
sufficient buoyancy will support potential for a few loosely
organized cells and/or clusters, with a threat of isolated strong to
severe gusts.

Richer low-level moisture and stronger instability will develop this
afternoon across parts of the central High Plains, where moist
easterly flow is maintained to the north of a nearly stationary
surface boundary. With capping and weaker large-scale ascent
expected, storm initiation within this more-unstable regime may be
suppressed. However, high-based convection that develops over the
higher terrain could spread into the central High Plains by early
evening, potentially accompanied by an isolated strong to severe
gusts and perhaps some hail.

...Western MO and vicinity...
Most guidance suggests an increase in elevated convection near and
after 12Z across parts of western MO, driven by low-level warm
advection and moistening in the 850-700 mb layer. Effective shear
will not be particularly strong, but relatively steep midlevel lapse
rates and moderate elevated buoyancy will support potential for a
few robust storms. Isolated hail cannot be ruled out with the
strongest storms. Also, despite the elevated nature of the
convection, initially rather dry profiles below the moist layer
could support locally strong gusts.

Depending on the coverage and intensity of morning convection,
cold-pool development will be possible, which could lead to a southward-propagating cluster across western MO. This scenario
remains quite uncertain, but there will be some potential for an
isolated damaging-gust threat to spread into southwest MO from late
morning into the afternoon.

...Parts of western OK into northwest TX...
Despite generally weak large-scale ascent, some guidance suggests
potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
within a very hot/well-mixed environment across parts of western OK
into northwest TX late this afternoon into the early evening. With
weak deep-layer shear and the influence of the upper ridge, storms
will likely remain disorganized, and coverage of storms remains
uncertain. However, any stronger storm within this environment would
pose a conditional microburst threat. A 5% wind area has been added
where relative confidence in storm development is currently
greatest.

...Northeast MT into northwest ND...
Moderate to locally strong instability may develop this afternoon
from far northeast MT into northwest ND, with sufficient deep-layer
shear to support storm organization. However, large-scale ascent is
expected to remain rather weak across the region, and there is only
a very weak signal for diurnal storm development. Some threat for
severe hail and/or wind could accompany any robust storm within this
regime, but confidence in storm coverage is too low for
probabilities at this time.

..Dean/Karstens.. 08/24/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251639
SWODY1
SPC AC 251638

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the
Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions
of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the
cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this
evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating
may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells
and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe
wind gusts possible.

Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front
encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and
still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate
the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping
and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range
possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening
west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear.

Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening
within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming
into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate
buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting
storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts.

...Central/southern Rockies...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah
and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered
over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur
into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes.
Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters
possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to
northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight
hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader
regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts.

...South-central High Plains...
Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico.
Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment
will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber
wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150121
SWODY1
SPC AC 150119

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts and hail
will be possible this evening over parts of the central and northern
Plains.

...Central and Northern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
Dakotas extending southward into northern Nebraska. Along this
corridor, the RAP has a two distinct vorticity maxima analyzed. At
the surface, a trough is located in the northern High Plains, and a
moist airmass is present over much of the central and northern
Plains. Surface dewpoints within this moist airmass vary from the
mid 50s to mid 60s F. The RAP suggests that moderate instability is
present from west-central Nebraska into parts of the Dakotas, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. The North Platte
00Z sounding has the best severe environment regionally, with MLCAPE
near 1500 J/kg, and 0-3 km shear around 35 knots. On this sounding,
the average low to mid-level lapse rate is near 7.5 C/km. This,
along with instability and shear suggest that a marginal severe
threat will likely continue for a few more hours. Isolated severe
gusts and hail will be possible with rotating cells. The threat is
expected to diminish during the mid to late evening as instability
decreases across the region.

..Broyles.. 09/15/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271949
SWODY1
SPC AC 271947

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of
North Carolina into Virginia.

...20Z Update...
Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the
primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene.
Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to
account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene,
where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong
low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a
couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until
they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling
supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more
short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/

...Synopsis...
The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the
mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection
to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC.
Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance
indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient
rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes.
Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this
afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with
the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively
less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of
the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the
overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300617
SWODY1
SPC AC 300615

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected today into
early tonight, particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area
into the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and become
negatively tilted as it impinges on the Upper MS Valley today.
Surface lee-troughing will remain in place across the Plains,
resulting in the northward transport of an appreciably moist
low-level airmass. A surface low will develop along the KS/OK border
this afternoon and track toward the MS Valley this evening. A cold
front will be draped across the MS Valley into KS while a dryline,
extending from the low, is poised to sweep eastward across OK and
northern TX through the day. Deep-layer ascent along and ahead of
the cold front and dryline will support at least scattered
thunderstorm initiation by late afternoon across the Plains. These
storms will progress eastward amid a buoyant and highly sheared
airmass. Severe storms are likely ahead of the cold front and
dryline, with all hazards possible.

...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate along the cold front
over northern KS into western IA by mid to late afternoon as
stronger upper-level support from the impinging mid-level trough
overspreads the terminus of a 50+ kt southerly low-level jet. 7+
C/km mid-level lapse rates, overspreading rich low-level moisture
(including mid-60s F surface dewpoints), should yield at least 1500
J/kg SBCAPE. Strong southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading the
low-level jet will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear,
but with vectors aligned roughly parallel with the front. Initial
semi-discrete storm modes, capable of mainly severe wind/hail, will
quickly merge to form a QLCS with embedded bowing segments and
perhaps a few mesovortices. This initial band of storms should
approach the MS Valley region by sunset, accompanied by mainly
damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat.

Farther south into central KS/northern OK, more discrete
thunderstorm development is expected by early evening. Surface
temperatures in the upper 70s F, combined with mid to perhaps upper
60s F dewpoints, will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE just
before sunset. Storms that can mature in this environment may
benefit from over 50 kts of effective bulk shear, as well as an
increase in low-level shear upon approaching the western periphery
of the low-level jet. Forecast soundings depict overall curved
low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation and 250-350 m2/s2
effective SRH. As such, supercells should be the initial storm mode
before storm mergers result in squall line development. While many
forecast soundings depict a weakness in the 800-600 mb layer, the
overall strength of the low-level shear suggests at least a few
tornadoes are possible, and a strong tornado or two may occur,
mainly after dark. The severe threat may transition to more of a
damaging gust threat after the squall line forms, though
line-embedded QLCS tornadoes remain possible.

..Squitieri/Lyons.. 10/30/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071644
SWODY1
SPC AC 071642

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes
are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

...West and Central TX...
A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through
tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave
trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX
overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W
across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing
very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX.


Current indications are that storms will become more numerous
through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear
profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts,
but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to
the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary,
forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of
damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have
extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning
CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later
today.

..Hart.. 11/07/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101640
SWODY1
SPC AC 101639

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TO CHANGE SUNDAY TO MONDAY

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight.

...Discussion...
An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast
to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper
Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St.
Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the
period. As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly
progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region
today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z
(Monday morning).

Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse
rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability. While a
more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the
Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly
advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael
sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear
precludes appreciable severe potential. Farther north, stronger
flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to
areas farther south. As such, severe weather is not anticipated.

..Goss/Lyons.. 11/10/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111636
SWODY1
SPC AC 111635

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Discussion...
A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing
prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper
ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated
to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an
inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending
northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A
few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but
near-land severe potential should remain limited.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/11/2024

$$

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