ACUS11 KWNS 041911
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041910=20
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-042145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1535
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Areas affected...from southwest Oklahoma into southwest
Missouri...and vicinity.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 041910Z - 042145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form after 20Z, with
scattered strong to possibly severe downbursts.

DISCUSSION...A surface trough and wind shift extend roughly from
northwest TX across central OK and into southwest MO. Low pressure
was noted over southwest OK, with substantial moisture convergence
along the boundary. GPS PWAT values remain at over 1.75" over most
of the area, even extending as far southwest as Childress, TX.

While midlevel lapse rates are modest, low-level lapse rates are
steepening, resulting in moderate instability overall. Towering CU=20
near the boundary should form into storms over the next few hours,
with multicellular storm mode supporting brief strong to severe
outflows.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 07/04/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_shp9hz8V_Ge3IEIdrCSUXqIetBDl6towGierslaf0p_5IhegUwNRjLRlA4q2DPyhT7jG9EqY= eldSVTB2dNypffRLYM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35179534 34489786 34190004 34470033 35090011 35609958
36419755 37189566 37589467 37569414 37419387 37099372
36699368 36079380 35799395 35549428 35179534=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)