ACUS11 KWNS 111736
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111735
NCZ000-VAZ000-111830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast Virginia into eastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 111735Z - 111830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to increase across portions
of southeastern Virginia into eastern North Carolina. A Tornado
Watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...A pair of tornadic supercells across northern NC are
poised to track eastward as an axis of coinciding strong low-level
shear and low to moderate CAPE continues to advance with a surface
low. Earlier precipitation has cleared this region, with surface
temperatures already climbing to 78 F in spots, with low to mid 70s
F surface dewpoints noted. With time, low-level shear will only
continue to increase, along with the threat for at least a few
additional tornadoes wherever supercell structures manifest.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 10/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5VeaUKn6fFAwmClNC2g_xgP9ZYAw8cSvV5QgNNLT28zPXaGEPg0ibl6Ww7L2SBA1vqN4iLp-3UfXCbXDeSbP1-jHNCo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 34487722 36277726 36877734 37297721 37427698 37277656
36797609 36257590 35647596 35117610 34617654 34487722

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)