ACUS11 KWNS 111605
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111604
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-111730-

Mesoscale Discussion 2361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of central into northern North Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 680...

Valid 111604Z - 111730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 680 continues.

SUMMARY...A few tornadoes remain a concern over the next few hours.
The best chance for tornadoes will be ahead of a surface low over
central to northern NC.

DISCUSSION...A band of organized thunderstorms are beginning to show
slightly greater supercell characteristics as it advances eastward
toward an instability axis, where favorable low-level shear is also
present. Surface temperatures are warming into the upper 70s F, amid
mid 70s F dewpoints, yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE per 15Z
mesoanalysis. Furthermore, the RAX VAD depicts an appreciable curved
low-level hodograph, with over 250 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH, with nearly 150
m2/s2 contained in the lowest 500 m AGL. As such, a
high-shear/moderate CAPE environment is present to support a
continued isolated tornado threat. While a tornado is possible with
any storm along the primary confluence band, the best chance for a
tornado will be with the northern storms given their proximity to
the surface low, and locally backed winds.

..Squitieri.. 10/11/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6nULfTVb25WMuYrWFF-dqydOSxQMPx76irDWtV-TNEA5wda4damlT1eqYsP537zG1SFEuu3Urc4AIjwwk6BZdRlql3c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 33567809 33677858 33887877 34337895 35457913 35807911
36437876 36447866 36597821 36627763 36437735 35847732
35027752 34367772 33857792 33567809

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
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